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The
MEME
Pool |
;)
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Drachma-Denarius
Applied Futures Research
and
Strategic
Planning |
August 12, 2002
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From: |
Raymond Bouchard |
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To: |
Arthur Cordell |
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Subject: |
Meme 022 |
Dear Arthur
Sorry about missing last week. I've been busy renovating
an apartment in Toronto. Here's the latest edition of the Meme Pool, the
newsletter of web articles of interest to futurists and strategic planners are
presented once a week. They highlight the appearance and disappearance of
trends, technologies and paradigms.
STRATEGIC
INSTABILITY
Apocalypse Now
Forecasters
thrive on trends. Faced with nice clear time series, it is easy to build
scenarios that inspire confidence. As long as all the big important factors
(population, economics, and prevailing culture) are marching along in a
consistent way, we can easily fit in alternative futures for smaller
issues.
Chaos has a different feel from continuity. There is an essential
weirdness about it that raises alarm bells. It is even weirder when no one seems
to notice them. Consider for example, the fact that a book called "The Remnant"
is at the top of the New York Times bestseller list. Michelle Goldberg reviews
the book in Salon and finds much to be disturbed about. The main problem
is that the book's nutty, apocalyptic views seem to be capable of 'explaining'
current events. Does art reflect reality, or the other way around?
[Salon]
MATHEMATICS
Co-incidence And Conspiracy
In an age already
spooked by the prospect of bio-terror, we get a new report that 12 prominent
researchers in the field of bio-weapons have met mysterious deaths over a period
of 4 months. One or two would be a coincidence. But with that high a number,
there must be something going on. Al-Qaeda perhaps, or Russia?
As Lisa
Belkin shows, much can be explained just by probability and statistics. Add to
math the psychological need to create meaning out of threatening patterns and we
see how easy it is to jump to conclusions. Add to that the power of the Internet
to locate information and we can come up with enough theories to keep anyone
from sleeping at night.
[New
York Times]
(LOW) TECHNOLOGY
Data
Insecurity
Bruce Schneier is an internationally renowned
security technologist and author of several classic books on encryption and data
security. In looking at the new security proposals for homeland security he sees
a lot of things he doesn't like - too much technology.
In Atlantic
Online, we see that new security systems are not only easy to bypass, but also
create systems that are more, not less, vulnerable. They increase inconvenience
to users, and have the potential to fail in spectacular ways.
[Atlantic]
ENVIRONMENT
The Sustainable Development Hoax
Jeremy
Seabrook, writing in The Guardian, puts forward the notion that
sustainable development as we perceive it is an unrealizable goal that will in
the end only divert us from thinking about and achieving realistic ways to deal
with growing populations and economies.
He has a point. The real issue is
one of finite supply trying to meet (potentially) infinite demand. The quest for
sustainable development will no doubt lead to a greater understanding of the
carrying capacity of the planet and will lead to improved ways of harvesting
resources. But it is difficult to see how the third world will get to western
standards of living, which is what they want.
[The
Guardian]
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If you do not wish to receive THE MEME POOL, because you are already
swamped with too much information, let me know and I'll stop sending it to
you.
If you find the newsletter interesting, pass it along to your
colleagues. If you have received this from someone other than me and would
like to be put on the list, just send me an e-mail at [EMAIL PROTECTED]. |
Back issues can be found at
www.drachma-denarius.com
An
introduction to the theory of memes can be found at
Principia
Cybernetica. |
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