FW: An Uncertain Britain

[Karen Watters Cole]

AHA! Another contrarian opinion about the Iraq war and Tony Blair originating from Bath, England!!!  And there is a quote in Latin! Cheers!       Karen An Uncertain Ally on Iraq @ http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/29/opinion/29WHEA.html By GEOFFREY WHEATCROFT August 29, 2002 BATH, England — Although Dick Cheney says that the United States is determined to make war on Iraq, George W. Bush has promised to consult America's friends. Although Donald Rumsfeld, invoking Churchill, has said that the right decision is more important than pleasing allies, even he must be apprehensive about acting entirely alone. And although Washington seems to have written off the Arab world and most of Europe, the administration is plainly counting on one ally, Britain, to come on board, as it did in the Gulf war and in Afghanistan. But that assumption may be wrong. In the latest polls, a majority of British voters — Conservative and Labor alike — don't think Tony Blair should support American policy on Iraq, a fact that will weigh heavily with our poll-obsessed prime minister. Downing Street is now trying to soften its stance and says privately that Mr. Bush has done "nothing" to explain the necessity of the war. If the White House had followed Mr. Blair's career closely, it would treat his promises with caution. Few of Mr. Blair's many American admirers seem aware of his habit of telling any audience what it wants to hear. Depending on whom he is talking to, he is conservative or liberal, sympathizes with Irish nationalism or with Ulster Unionism, regards European integration with enthusiasm or with reserve. Even some of his supporters have worried whether this chameleon quality would catch up with him. …Americans easily forget that under parliamentary government, the prime minister with no fixed term is never entirely secure. In 1990, Margaret Thatcher, a figure of world renown, who had won three elections, was still deposed by her parliamentary party. Some sarcastic voices from the Pentagon might retort that it doesn't make any great difference whether Mr. Blair survives, or whether the British take part in a war. In a purely military sense that may be true, even if we pride ourselves on the skills of our special forces. Politically, it's another matter. If President Bush went ahead with a war lacking the support even of the British government, it would highlight his unilateralism in the most dramatic way. "America contra mundum" may be what zealots in the administration want. From outside, it looks perilous. Geoffrey Wheatcroft's books include "The Randlords" and "The Controversy of Zion."