Karen,
At 06:51 29/08/02 -0700, you wrote:
<<<<
AHA! Another contrarian opinion about the Iraq war and Tony Blair,
originating from Bath, England!!! And there is a quote in Latin! Cheers!
Karen
>>>>
What a wonderful lot we are in Bath! I've heard of Geoffrey Wheatcroft,
though I haven't met him. I'll follow with his whole NYT article ('cos it
isn't very long).
But Wheatcroft is quite right. Tony Blair is rarely able to deliver what he
promises. He agrees with "either" when "or" is away -- and vice versa.
He's very telegenic and that's what got him to where he is. He protects
himself with a small loyal band of spin doctors, and the spin changes from
month to month according to the weather.
He certainly won't be able to lay on UK support for Bush's policy -- about
70-80% of the population are dead against it -- and, what's more, almost
100% of the "chattering classes".
Keith
<<<<
AN UNCERTAIN ALLY ON IRAQ
By Geoffrey Wheatcroft
BATH, England — Although Dick Cheney says that the United States is
determined to make war on Iraq, George W. Bush has promised to consult
America's friends. Although Donald Rumsfeld, invoking Churchill, has said
that the right decision is more important than pleasing allies, even he
must be apprehensive about acting entirely alone. And although Washington
seems to have written off the Arab world and most of Europe, the
administration is plainly counting on one ally, Britain, to come on board,
as it did in the Gulf war and in Afghanistan. But that assumption may be
wrong.
In the latest polls, a majority of British voters — Conservative and Labor
alike — don't think Tony Blair should support American policy on Iraq, a
fact that will weigh heavily with our poll-obsessed prime minister. Downing
Street is now trying to soften its stance and says privately that Mr. Bush
has done "nothing" to explain the necessity of the war.
If the White House had followed Mr. Blair's career closely, it would treat
his promises with caution. Few of Mr. Blair's many American admirers seem
aware of his habit of telling any audience what it wants to hear. Depending
on whom he is talking to, he is conservative or liberal, sympathizes with
Irish nationalism or with Ulster Unionism, regards European integration
with enthusiasm or with reserve. Even some of his supporters have worried
whether this chameleon quality would catch up with him.
Of course, all politicians sometimes do this. You don't get to lead a large
democracy on a narrow platform, and two-facedness may even serve admirable
purposes in cajoling warring sides to reach compromise.
But the alarming degree to which Mr. Blair evinces this tendency is shown
by a long line of victims, all of whom thought they understood him. Before
the 1997 election, Paddy Ashdown, then the leader of the Liberal Democrats,
was led to believe that Mr. Blair intended to bring him and his party into
a coalition. After that election, Roy Jenkins, the former cabinet minister,
was also led to believe that Mr. Blair would support proportional
representation. After the 1998 Belfast Agreement, David Trimble, the Ulster
Unionist leader, was once again led to believe Mr. Blair would back him up
if there was no rapid progress toward disarmament of the Irish Republican
Army. All were left dangling when he forgot what he had said to them.
Such evasiveness may sometimes be inevitable in domestic politics, but in
international affairs it can be very dangerous. We have seen something like
this before from Mr. Blair. Visiting the United States in the spring of
1999, he much impressed Americans by his resolute stance in the face of
Serb aggression. Shortly afterward, Mr. Blair published an article in the
Sun, the right-wing London tabloid, that suggested he would not send in
British troops.
Now we see another example. President Bush is convinced after talking to
him that Mr. Blair is gung-ho for a war against Saddam Hussein. Yet King
Abdullah of Jordan was convinced after visiting Downing Street that Mr.
Blair has grave reservations about such a war.
Even if Mr. Blair does favor an attack, it is by no means certain that he
can help the White House. The prime minister has enjoyed astonishing
political success while never concealing his disregard for the Labor Party,
for the House of Commons and for the cabinet. All now represent threats to
him. At next month's Labor conference there will be bitter criticism of
plans for war with Iraq. The veteran member of Parliament, Gerald Kaufman,
usually a Blair loyalist, has said that "there is substantial resistance in
the parliamentary Labor Party against war on Iraq, not just from the usual
suspects" — not just the ornery anti-American left, that is, but from many
mainstream members of Parliament who supported America's war on terrorism
after Sept. 11.
There are also rumblings from some of Mr. Blair's closest advisers, like
Peter Mandelson, suggesting that support for military action against Iraq
might be politically disastrous.
Americans easily forget that under parliamentary government, the prime
minister with no fixed term is never entirely secure. In 1990, Margaret
Thatcher, a figure of world renown, who had won three elections, was still
deposed by her parliamentary party.
Some sarcastic voices from the Pentagon might retort that it doesn't make
any great difference whether Mr. Blair survives, or whether the British
take part in a war. In a purely military sense that may be true, even if we
pride ourselves on the skills of our special forces. Politically, it's
another matter. If President Bush went ahead with a war lacking the support
even of the British government, it would highlight his unilateralism in the
most dramatic way. "America contra mundum" may be what zealots in the
administration want. From outside, it looks perilous.
<<<<
Geoffrey Wheatcroft's books include "The Randlords" and "The Controversy of
Zion."
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Keith Hudson,6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England
Tel:01225 312622/444881; Fax:01225 447727; E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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