Well, it's looking as though my Middle East hypothesis (that Bush's anti-Iraq policy was actually directed at eliciting a regime change in Saudi Arabia) has failed. It may have been intended originally, and to some extent it could be said to have been successful -- the modernists in the SA royal family seem to have become stronger vis-�-vis the fundamentalists in recent weeks -- but the radical reform that SA needs seems as far away as ever.
But any serious attempt at regime change in Iraq -- which Bush now seems intent on despite what the UN may say -- will only produce a satrap of America -- in effect a colony in the old-fashioned imperialist tradition. Surely this would only screw up tensions within the other Islamic countries to breaking point? And then what happens if there are further demonstrations by the Western-seeking, frustrated young in Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Arab Emirates? If the imams crack down hard, then America would have to invade those countries, too, in order to ensure that further Al Qaeda-type terrorist network don't develop. So far, America seems to be buying off Russia and China with diplomatic sops, but how will they react if America enroaches even further into the Middle East in order to protect its oil supplies? My guess is that America has calculated that Russia will be no problem however strongly it protests. After all, its armed forces are so demoralised that it's highly likely that Russia's missile sites are so badly maintained that missiles would never get off the ground. On the whole, though, China has not been objecting strongly. True, it seems to have internal succession problems just at present which are distracting its leadership but, given America's considerable help in getting China into the WTO, one wonders whether or not there's some secret deal going on here. America knows that China's armed forces and missile potential (increasingly sophisticated) are certainly not demoralised, and China is going to need increasing imports of Middle East oil in the coming years. Meanwhile, Japan is flat on its back economically and unlikely to recover for many years, if at all. Western Europe (particularly Germany and Italy) seems to be heading the same way pretty fast. In any case, neither have any military clout. As to England . . . well, we've been a colony of America ever since WWII and Blair will continue our sycophantic role with his usual enthusiasm. Keith Hudson ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________
