From: Raymond Bouchard [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Sent: Tuesday, September 24, 2002 2:29 PM
To: Cordell, Arthur: ECOM
Subject: Meme 027
|
The |
|
Applied Futures Research and Strategic Planning |
September 22, 2002
|
From: |
Raymond Bouchard |
|
To: |
Arthur Cordell |
|
Subject: |
Meme 027 |
Dear Arthur
Here's the latest edition of the Meme Pool, the newsletter
of web articles that 'deserve' to be repeated, re-used and re-cycled. Articles
of interest to futurists and strategic planners are presented once a week. They
highlight the appearance and disappearance of trends, technologies and
paradigms.
BIO-INFO CONVERGENCE
Autonomic Computing
We live in a very complex
world. Global interdependencies intermediated by specialists in long supply
chains have, for the west at least, given us access to the wealth of the planet.
This complexity is to a large extent managed and controlled by technology.
Networks and computers can easily keep track of all the transactions needed to
move bananas from Costa Rica to Calgary. The problem is that there is no upper
limit on what people want, and no lower limit to the price we will pay for
it.
The drive for productivity has resulted in more computers, networks,
databases and robots. The growth has been exponential at all levels: raw
computing power, available storage, number of devices and network connections.
It has also led to unprecedented levels of complexity. To the point that
complexity is one of the most serious challenges we face today. Unfilled I/T
jobs in the US alone are in the hundred of thousands. The demand for skilled IT
workers is expected to double in the next 6 years.
The possibility that
computer systems may be beyond management and control is not good news for a
society that critically relies on them. Increasingly, the gatekeepers of this
technology, IBM, HP, Sun, Oracle, and Microsoft have recognized the problem and
are turning to biological models to deal with it.
The approach being
studied is called autonomic computing. It attempts to design self-managed
computing systems which require a minimum of human interference. The term
derives from the body's autonomic nervous system, which controls key functions
without conscious awareness or involvement Such systems are designed to be
self-managed, self-aware, self-balancing, self-diagnostic and self-repairing.
The emphasis is on self. These machines do not need human
intervention.
Unanswered in all this is whether or not we are replacing
complexity we can barely manage, with complexity that we have no hope of
managing.
IBM has listed eight elements that define this technology, and
have also web-published a paper positioning autonomic computing in a
"manifesto". [There is a spectre haunting the planet, the spectre of complexity.
Machines of the world unite! You have nothing to lose but your
administrators.]
[IBM 8
Elements] [IBM
Manifesto]
EVOLUTION OF KNOWLEDGE
Asymmetric Vulnerability
Futurist Ian Pearson
has taken a look at the evolution of science and technology. In a paper entitled
"What's Next?" he considers some future technologies and their possible
disruptive effects on telecommunications, people, and the planet. Even though he
has an optimistic outlook on technology in general, he raises a concern of
asymmetric vulnerability.
Every technology has the possibility of being
disruptive. Over time, we manage to adjust, either by fixing the problems or
working around them. If however the pace of change is so fast that we can't
adjust, we have a bigger problem. Pearson's view is that some areas of
technology have rushed into the application stage so quickly that we have not
been able to do enough basic science to understand the consequences. This is the
case with biotechnology in particular.
This thought provoking article in
the BT Journal also introduces the ideas of networked stupidity and wildcard
exponentiation. He also has an interesting timeline for "extinction-capable"
technologies. This is a classic essay on "thinking about the unthinkable".
[BT
Journal]
FUTURE WARFARE
Full
Metal Jacket
The Geneva Convention directs its signatories to
use bullets clad in steel during hostilities. This type of bullet is more likely
to wound a soldier than kill him outright. The hard shell will let the bullet
travel through the body rather than deforming or internally ricocheting after
penetration. This restriction, along with others regulating chemical or
biological agents, was intended to make war more "humane" by causing injury, but
not death.
If you put aside a host of ethical, moral, philosophical,
humanitarian (etc) considerations, this is a laudable goal. Its spirit lives on
at the Joint Non-Lethal Weapons Directorate. Their website provides some insight
into what is being done to reduce casualties during war. They even provide a
list of military acronyms in the area of non-lethal weapons development.
[JNLWD] [DODD 3000]
If
you are not inclined to put aside the host of ethical (etc) issues, you have a
lot to worry about. Some of the technologies being investigated are not so
benign. The Buffalo Independent Media Centre has compiled a list of documents
obtained under the Freedom of Information Act describing certain projects. One
noteworthy comment is that these technologies are now being considered for MOOTW
(Military Operations Other Than War), controlling populations for example.
[IndyMedia]
Technically
speaking, many such weapons would be prohibited under existing treaties.
Practically speaking, the treaties don't stop anyone from "just looking".
Historically speaking, their use would be acceptable if they were used by the
winning combatant. It is a fairly safe bet that these weapons will continue to
be developed and used. An excellent review of the technologies, uses, and issues
surrounding non-lethal weapons can be found at the Electronic Journal of
Law.
[E-Law]
FEEDBACK
Godwin's Law
Last week an item in the Meme Pool
described a process whereby a dialogue about a controversial issue eventually
results in a comparison to the Nazis. An alert reader wrote that the phenomenon
is known as Godwin's Law, which states that "As an online discussion
grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler
approaches one."
Mike Godwin describes it in his own words in a
Wired article, which also includes some corollaries to the law.
[Wired]
|
If you do not wish to receive THE MEME POOL, because you are already
swamped with too much information, let me know and I'll stop sending it to
you. |
An introduction to the theory of memes can be found at |
--------------------
E-Mail sent using the Free Trial Version of WorldMerge, the fastest
and easiest way to send personalized e-mail messages. For more
information visit http://www.coloradosoft.com/worldmrg
70484
