Just as the possibility of Bush Snr's second term was dished by the economy, so will Bush Jnr's unless he stops playing boys' games.
Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 3.7 percent, its third-biggest single-day point drop and percentage drop of the year. For the week, it lost 3.6 percent -- the fifth week in a row. Scott Jacobsen, equity market strategist at Jefferies & Co. said last night: "We've been in a very volatile market. With all this negative news, you're getting a lot of nervousness. The coming war with Iraq is getting closer and I don't think the parade of bad earnings news is over. This is about as bad as it gets." Steve Kurtz and I were forecasting this about 12-18 months ago on FW list and I think it will go a lot further yet. In the usual way that stock markets slide in a gathering recession, the market might check, go up a little next week and pause awhile before the next batch of bad company news comes out and down it goes again. During October it's likely that the slide will continue. So far, American unemployment figures represents claimants only and hides the gathering number of jobless. It's probable that sometime soon the official figures will start to register the real trend in employment. If this turns out to be so, how will the Republicans do in the November elections? There could be a wipe-out. Never mind that Bush is unlikely to get the sort of belligerent resolution at the UN that would give him permission to go full pitch into Iraq, the American electorate is likely to start saying quite soon: "Wake up! Let's get the economy moving again first!" Perhaps then, Bush might also start to think of constructive strategies for US policy in the Middle East. We can but hope. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------- Keith Hudson,6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel:01225 312622/444881; Fax:01225 447727; E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________
