Keith, I am not as optimistic as the professionals keep trying to be, but who am I to argue with professionals? As for consumer sentiment, I live in the Portland metro area where unemployment is still above 7%, the state budget crises hasn't peaked, victimized by a stalled legislature full of individuals trapped by their own rhetoric and the prisons of policy they cannot seem to escape. We face an edge of the cliff rescue by public vote in January that will not solve the problem, just put it off until next year, when state revenues will be worse. There will be a school rainy day fund now, thanks to a special election by mail, which will just take a deeper slice of the lottery pie but it will be used up immediately to rescue the current school year under way and not a great help next year. Those people with jobs have taken advantage of mortgage refinancing and 0% auto loans to put a little more cash in their pockets each month, but they are not spending it on other retail. The expectation is that wallets will be shut nationally as well and its sooner to Christmas than we think. Bush and Co. have a big sell ahead of them, regardless of what kind of resolution comes out of Congress. I do not believe we will see the fantastic economic recovery that some people imagine, courtesy of old WW2 memories, and the street economics that prevails among CNN viewers. CNN is a perfect example of what happens when children raised on 30-second learning vignettes on Sesame Street grow up and can't focus on anything serious longer than 30 seconds. It was instructive to gage Bush's body language recently as he speaks in public: the exasperation in his voice, eye connection to the front row, the open arms, slight bending forward gesture while saying "I intend to give peace a chance" that in my mind at least said "Give me a break". Note the flag backdrops. I'm waiting for the posters that columnist George Will alluded to of soldiers protecting the homeland and Mom and Apple Pie as a tranquilizer to show up. I'd say the pressure is enormous because the stakes are so high. Well, I'm off to the garden to water and weed and regain some serenity. Karen Keith wrote: So, today, I may very well be too pessimistic. But I certainly don't think that the Merrill Lynch or Salomon Smith Barney forecasts you mention above will be reached -- or anywhere near. I feel that a sharp turning point will be reached quite soon when, finally, US consumers lose their nerve and reduce their spending and start saving (and paying off their credit cards) again. Even slight deflections would have a double whammy effect. (I think this is unconnected with Bush's Iraq policy.)
(KWC) >Everyone seems to be confident that vigorous growth is going to happen, but >it keeps getting pushed further into the future, rather than the next >quarter, or one after that, based on all the uncertainty we are >experiencing - and the uncertainty of what we will be doing in the near >future. > >That alone would be good reason for the persistent claim that taking out >Hussein would be a piece of cake, short expenditure, minimal risk. Could be. What's occurring to me in the last few days is that Saddam's position is a great deal more vulnerable than we might imagine -- and, maybe, the CIA knows it. Maybe, a little more pressure and his regime will collapse. But who will take over?
