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AIDS as a threat to global security: change in scale and complexity I learned quite a bit from the following exchange between experts on
the subject of global AIDS. You can read the transcript or catch the
streaming video. Although both of
these men are Americans, they provided what I thought was good insight into
this international problem. @ http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/international/july-dec02/aids_10-01.html Introduction: “The rapid spread of AIDS threatens to undermine some of
the most populous nations in the world and destabilize regional security over
the next decade, according to a report by the Central Intelligence Agency. The CIA highlights what it calls five
"major regional or global players," countries where surging rates of
HIV and AIDS could affect political and economic stability. The next wave of AIDS, according
to the report, will affect: CHINA, the world's most populous country of 1.3 billion people,
the CIA report highlighted its importance to the regional economy of East Asia.
INDIA, where the population of one
billion will soon surpass that of China.
The Indian AIDS numbers are projected to be the worst in the world: 25 million patients by 2010. RUSSIA'S numbers will be significantly lower, but the intelligence agency
worries the epidemic could hurt Russia's transition out of the Soviet era.
NIGERIA is a major oil source and
home to 130 million. Africa's most
populous country has been a frequent contributor to regional peacekeeping in
places like Sierra Leone and Liberia.
The CIA also cited ETHIOPIA in East Africa.
The agency worries that a growing AIDS crisis make ethnic and regional
tensions worse in a country adjacent to Eritrea, Somalia, and the Sudan. In all those countries, the report
says, cumulative AIDS cases will triple over the
next decade from an estimated 23 million today to as many as 75 million by 2010. By then,
prevalence of the disease will eclipse that of Central and Southern Africa.” In this discussion: Nicholas
Eberstadt, a researcher with the American Enterprise Institute, a
Washington-based think tank -- he was an independent reviewer of the CIA
Report; and Princeton Lyman, the executive director of the Global Interdependence
Initiative at the Aspen Institute, a research and policy organization. |
