The best interpretation of Bush's policy is that the only thing preventing an American onslaught on Iraq is free access of United Nations inspectors. But, for this to work, Saddam and everyone else must firmly believe that the attack is imminent.
And will happen if there is any attempt to deny the inspectors complete access.
Once we are convinced that there is no danger from Saddam, I think that the American/Iraq relationship might become less hostile. Saddam is already exporting about 75% of his pre-war oil exports.
The other 25% hitting the world markets would change things for the better for both the US and Europe.
Of course, Bush could be a dumbo who doesn't know the time of day. Yet, have you noticed how often he gets his way? Remember, I have been saying for months that his reputation is that of a negotiator. He was good at this in Texas. Maybe in Washington, he isn't being eaten alive (as was expected) but is getting a lot of his own way.
We'll see how it plays.
Harry
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Keith wrote:
Karen, At 07:50 11/10/02 -0700, you wrote: <<<< Keith, this is for you and all the hard work you have shared with us online. Not a conclusive opinion, but certainly elaborates on the case in point. >>>>That's nice of you to say so. But my hypothesis wasn't hard work -- just me, being carried away by the apparent absurdity of Bush's ME policy. The following article that you posted is one of the best I've read. Yet it's self-contradictory! Michael Moran makes a good case for suggesting that Bush/Cheney/etc are attempting to build up a second strategic oil reserve (that is, in Iraq as well as in Saudi Arabia), and then he denies it, saying it's too simplistic! Whether Bush is aiming for regime change in Saudi Arabia primarily (my former hypothesis) or in Iraq, I wouldn't like to guess now. All I would suggest is that, because the pressure that Bush is exerting is so considerable, then any regime change, however "democratic" it might be dressed up to be, will have been done under duress, and will only add to instability in the Middle East. Keith
****************************** Harry Pollard Henry George School of LA Box 655 Tujunga CA 91042 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Tel: (818) 352-4141 Fax: (818) 353-2242 *******************************
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