A commentator of BBC Radio this morning has been speculating whether
Saddam's troops will obey orders if America invades. Over here, according
to a poll on an unofficial website, 60% of RAF pilots are against the
projected war, as are *all* the Generals in the British Army, according to
Sir Michael Rose, ex-Head of Defence General Staff. And then one hears that
the CIA and the American Defence Staff are also deeply disturbed about the
Bush policy.

According to all the "experts" and media commentators, the odds are still
1,000 to 1 that the war will take place. I disagree. I still think that
even if an invasion takes place, there'll be no serious warfare. If Saddam
carries out his policy of placing his Republican Guards in the large cities
and fighting street-to-street, and house-to-house, then American soldiers
will either not have the courage to take part -- or they'll turn against
their officers as they did in Vietnam.

Just as the Russians forgot all about the lessons of the battle of
Stalingrad when they razed Grozhny to the ground in recent years -- and
till haven't regained control -- the Americans are forgetting about
Vietnam.   

No . . . I still think that this war is not a practical proposition. But
what will certainly happen is that Islamic opinion in the Middle East will
be inflamed almost whatever the Americans do. In 6 months' time, after a
fundamentalist rising or two, it could be the case that America would be
receiving no Middle East oil at all. This of course would cripple America
and the only thing Bush could then do is to nuke a few capitals.

Keith Hudson
  
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Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com
6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England
Tel: +44 1225 312622;  Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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