I am beginning to think that there will be a long war in Iraq and that it is more likely to end in the humiliation of Bush and Blair than Saddam, and that it could bring about a chain of circumstances that will cause the demise of America as a world power.
My forecast is subject to one proviso -- that Saddam will be able to hold onto power within his regime no matter how tough it gets in the coming weeks and months. I wouldn't want to bet on this. For all I know there might be a group who will bring Saddam down at a suitable opportunity as almost happened in the case of Hitler. If it does so, my forecast fails. However, I think such a coup is probably unlikely because the power structure around Saddam are either members of his own tribe or are mainly Sunni Moslems. Both would feel the wrath of the more nuerous Baghdad Kurds and Shia Moslems at the first sign of weakness in the regime. Iraq would disintegrate into factions just as Yugoslavia did on the death of Tito. No Iraqi, no matter how much he might hate Saddam personally, wants this to happen. The following is the scenario that will develop, as I see it. In a few days American cruise missiles will attack all conceivable defence and communication posts in Iraq. There will inevitably be some civilian fatalities but perhaps only in hundreds or low thousands, not high thousands. American tanks will roll into Iraq and head directly for the oil fields around Basra Kirkuk and elsewhere. Saddam's tanks and infantry will retreat into the cities. The Americans will not dare attack Baghdad and maybe Basra and the other big cities because its only method of defeating and occupying the same would be either by overwhelming use of missiles or the systematic destruction of all buildings shielding snipers. This would produce enormous civilian fatalities and you can be sure that Saddam will allow plenty of TV crews to film such episodes. This is something that, I suggest, even Bush would not dare do for fear of massive world opposition -- particularly from children and young people in the developed countries who are already (to everyone's surprise) becoming a powerful political force. Furthermore, Bush would not be able to impose a complete blockade on any cities he lays seige to. World opinion would insist on food, water and medicines being allowed in. Despite immense suffering of their inhabitants, these cities could survive for years Every Iraqi male, either in the army or not, has at least a Kalashnikoff at his disposal. Every male will be fighting for the protection of his own home and, like the people of Stalingrad or Grozhny, he will fight to the death if necessary. No American soldier will dare to enter the cities, and no American commander will dare force them to, unless they are safely inside a tank, never venturing forth while they are inside the city boundary. So what would happen? The Americans would be foiled in any attempt to impose or encourage a new form of government. They would, however, remain ensconced around the oil fields while hoping for a new regime with which US oil corporations could do business. In short, I think it is highly likely that there would be a stalemate and this would then start to have big repercussions in the UK and the US. Ordinary members of the Labour Party in England are already leaving in disgust and this will become a flood unless Blair resigns fairly soon. What will happen to Bush I wouldn't want to speculate about because I don't know the American political situation well enough. The United Nations Organisation would be totally wrecked. Sooner rather than later, the Israelis would find an opportunity to sweep millions of Palestinians into Jordan. A little later, as world opinion consolidates increasingly against America, Iran might well decide to invade southern Iraq and be welcomed by the Shia Moslems there who've suffered under Saddam. The Shia Moslems of Saudi Arabia might revolt against the Saudi royal family and the Wahabbi clerics -- and/or the Wahabbi might revolt against the Saudis and the whole country become even more oppressive than it is now. America might have to invade Saudi Arabia in order to protect its oil and gas supplies. With America so preoccupied, North Korea, with an unstable dictator, might unleash missiles against South Korea. The Hindu nationalist government of India, already stirring up hatred of Muslims in order to remain in power, might attack Pakistan. Almost anything could happen in this new unstable world. (Except perhaps China. I think it will keep on lying as low as possible, as now. It has enough on its plate without getting involved too deeply elsewhere -- except perhaps in taking over America's present role in recruiting the best scientific brains available in the world). America is in quintuple financial deficit at the present time -- current account, federally, statewise, corporately and consumerwise. What happens if it's stalemated in Iraq -- or fighting even more expensive battles in Saudi Arabia or Iran or Pakistan/India/Afghanistan? America is now as overwhelmingly powerful as any empire has ever been throughout history just before it starts collapsing on itself because of overstretch. Keith Hudson ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
