RE: [Futurework] Claire Short announces her decision

[Ed Weick]

From Arthur's retired political scientist friend: Blair is a very cagey politician, and not a lightweight in any sense.  The notion that he has simply loyally followed along as a tame poodle for Bush, and has risked as much as he has just to get some pats of approval (or somewhat more material rewards for his country) doesn't stand up to my reading of political behavior. I have rarely met, or observed, a capable politician who willingly will commit to a likely kamikaze dive, unless there is something that is pushing him in such a way that taking such risks seems to be less risky than facing some other possibility.  And I think that Blair is facing danger that any self-serving, capable, politician would have sought either to avoid or to get out of long before this time. I too have wondered why Blair, obviously intelligent, would put himself so far out on a limb.  I keep coming back to the likelihood that it's a hegemonic game.  Blair recognizes the strategic importance of being in a position to sit on and transform the Middle East.  Britain can do little by itself, but could achieve a lot by riding on US coat tails.  What Blair may have misjudged is how difficult a time the US would have and the danger that the US would become increasingly isolated in world opinion, taking him with it. Ed Weick