Harry,
Thanks to Karen, I've now read the full speech that Bush Senior gave at
Tufts U. and I don't think it was anywhere near the strong public warning
to Bush Junior that the Times article implied and I inferred in my other
posting. His speech rambled around and about the whole subject of the
Middle East (without mentioning oil!), but there was enough in it, I'd have
thought, to make Cheney and Rumsfeld think more carefully before advising
Bush to invade. (I append the Times article, thanks to Ray who posted it.
Note that it says Bush Junior has a vengeful nature -- usually associated
with stupidity rather than wisdom!)
I've never said that Bush Junior is evil. That's a term I simply don't use.
I've never said that Bush is stupid -- only relative to what one expects
from someone who is President of America. I would say he's of average
intelligence and thus quite capable to keeping to a simple line when
"courageously" facing a roomful of reporters. One thing is for certain:
Bush Junior couldn't stand up to any rigorous, systematic questioning by
journalists such as our own David Dimbleby (I don't know enough about your
TV journalists to give an example). I suppose a President, particularly
Bush, would turn down such an interview by claiming the dignity of his
office . . . .?
However, even if Bush Senior was not sending a direct message to the White
House, it looks as though the proposed second resolution will not even be
put because Bush and Blair won't even get enough Ayes, never mind the
certain vetoes from France and Russia (and probably China). Faced with
this, also the likelihood that Blair would lose his job if America and
Britain invade, also that most of the senior army officers in both forces
are dubious about the possibility of a quick, successful invasion, also
that many in the State Department are concerned (John Brown has just
resigned in protest -- the second senior person to do so) and also that
Kofi Anan has said that it would be illegal, then it's still the situation
that Bush (or his back-room team, in my view of things) has got to think
twice now.
If you're right about Bush, then it's more likely that he'll continue with
the invasion. If I'm right -- that Bush's back-room team takes the
decisions -- then it's more likely that the invasion will be postponed for
a long time (and probably permanently) -- according to French and Russian
ideas on the matter.
It might therefore be difficult in the short term to decide who is right.
In this case, we must wait a little longer. I'm convinced from my own
personal observations of Bush Junior on TV that he is intellectually
handicapped for such a responsible job and that history will confirm this.
Keith
At 14:13 10/03/03 -0800, you wrote:
>Keith,
>
>Good thinking!
>
>However, of crucial importance to perhaps both Bushes is to get a majority
>of the Security Council going with the Ayes! At that point, I don't think a
>French veto would matter.
>
>"Heck, we know what the French are like - but most of the Security Council
>are with us."
>
>This is all very interesting.
>
>Harry
>---------------------------------------------------
<<<<<
Bush Sr. Warning Over Unilateral Action
Roland Watson
The Times UK
Monday 10 March 2003
The first President Bush has told his son that hopes of peace in the
Middle East would be ruined if a war with Iraq were not backed by
international unity.
Drawing on his own experiences before and after the 1991 Gulf War, Mr
Bush Sr said that the brief flowering of hope for Arab-Israeli relations a
decade ago would never have happened if America had ignored the will of the
United Nations.
He also urged the President to resist his tendency to bear grudges,
advising his son to bridge the rift between the United States, France and
Germany.
"You've got to reach out to the other person. You've got to convince
them that long-term friendship should trump short-term adversity," he said.
The former President's comments reflect unease among the Bush family
and its entourage at the way that George W. Bush is ignoring international
opinion and overriding the institutions that his father sought to uphold.
Mr Bush Sr is a former US Ambassador to the UN and comes from a family
steeped in multi-lateralist traditions.
Although not addressed to his son in person, the message, in a speech
at Tufts University in Massachusetts, was unmistakable. Mr Bush Sr even
came close to conceding that opponents of his son's case against President
Saddam Hussein, who he himself is on record as loathing, have legitimate
cause for concern.
He said that the key question of how many weapons of mass destruction
Iraq held "could be debated". The case against Saddam was "less clear" than
in 1991, when Mr Bush Sr led an international coalition to expel invading
Iraqi troops from Kuwait. Objectives were "a little fuzzier today," he added.
After the Gulf War, Mr Bush Sr steered Israel and its Arab neighbours
to the Madrid conference, a stepping stone to the historic
Israeli-Palestinian Oslo accords, in much the same way that the present
President has talked about the removal of Saddam as opening the way to a
wider peace in the region.
In an ominous warning for his son, Mr Bush Sr said that he would have
been able to achieve nothing if he had jeopardised future relations by
ignoring the UN. "The Madrid conference would never have happened if the
international coalition that fought together in Desert Storm had exceeded
the UN mandate and gone on its own into Baghdad after Saddam and his forces."
Also drawing on the lessons of 1991, he said that it was imperative to
mend fences with allies immediately, rather than waiting until after a war.
He had been infuriated with the decision of King Hussein of Jordan to side
with Saddam rather than the US, but while criticising the Jordanian leader
in public and freezing $41 million in US aid, he also passed word to King
Hussein that he understood his domestic tensions.
Mr Bush Jr, who is said never to forget even relatively minor slights,
has alarmed analysts with the way in which he has allowed senior
Administration figures such as Donald Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary,
aggressively to criticise France and Germany.
There are, however, signs that Mr Bush Sr's message may be getting through.
Father and son talk regularly and it was, in part, pressure from Mr
Bush Sr's foreign policy coterie, that helped to persuade the President to
go to the UN last September.
>>>>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com
6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England
Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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