Although the world's eyes are concentrated on the spectacular bombing of
Baghdad, I think we are already beginning to see the real focus of the war
developing in northern Iraq around the Kirkuk oil complex. The Turks, after
denying progress to American armour, are now themselves sending thousands
of troops across the Iraqi border in order, they say, to stop Iraqi
refugees flooding into their country. At the same time, the relatively
sparse American special forces that have been dropped in are barely able to
restrain the Kurds from invading Kirkuk and relieving their persecuted
population there. Also, I remember reading a few days ago that the Iranians
have sent an army of southern Shia Muslims up to the border near Kirkuk.
It is quite possible that we will be seeing a three- or even four-way war
going on quite soon in the Kirkuk region. Undoubtedly, the Americans will
win in the end when their two big armoured Divisions from Germany and Texas
finally get there next month. American control will then be unified all the
way down the Tigris river valley to the oilfields around Basra. This zone
will require vast financial inputs to restore present levels of production
and to develop the great potential that hasn't been tapped so far. It will
thus be too important to await the formation of a stable Iraqi government
in Baghdad -- which may take several years -- and a well-nigh permanent
zone of occupation will result.
I think it's likely that the Americans will impose a "Trusteeship" on the
Tigris zone in order to distribute the profits to Iraq as a whole, as they
have already stated. I doubt that this will happen initially until they've
reimbursed themselves considerably for the costs of the war. Nor, I
believe, will the Americans establish an impartial free market. Preference
will be given to American and British oil corporations -- though the
Americans will undoubtedly have to allow previous contracts with French,
Russian and Chinese corporations to be reestablished.
It's going to be many years before any sort of stable government will
emerge from Baghdad, so the Tigris Zone might be a fixture for a long time
to come. This, by itself, would be serious enough. But what would be the
effect on Saudi Arabia and on their oilfields (the continuation of the
archaic Tigris valley)? This is likely to be the final spark that will
ignite the Wahhabis of this nasty, medieval kingdom to overthrow the royal
family (and try to establish an even nastier regime). America already has
special troops all around Saudi Arabia and will have to go in to protect
the oilfields. And what about the millions of young unemployed people in
Iran who yearn for a western way of life and who are increasingly
demonstrating against their clerics? What would the Americans do if this
were to happen next door to the Tigris Zone?
We may now be seeing the beginning of a conflagration spreading throughout
the Middle East. America's financial integrity is now only hanging by a
thread (the support of its current account deficit by immense funds from
the central banks of south-east Asia) and it might soon become a case of
America-the-Desperate instead of America-the-Triumphant.
In President Nixon's time there was serious talk of a coup-d'�tat by senior
Army officers because they were (quite rightly) concerned with Nixon's
mental state. I think it's quite possible that, within six months, there
might be talk of another one in order to overthrow the present group around
Bush and formulate a new Middle East policy. The two recent resignations of
middle-ranking career officers in the State Department are the merest tip
of an iceberg of deep unease by more senior people to Bush's present policies.
Keith Hudson
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Keith Hudson,6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England
Tel:01225 312622/444881; Fax:01225 447727; E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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