Also note insecurity in Central Asia: http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=2427579
Pakistan PM cancels trip to Washington; and Karzai cancels trip to Islamabad, cancellation of SE Asian mini-Olympic games. Everyone seems to be 'hunkering down' waiting to see what the first moments after war are like. If there is too great a sense of triumph from US-UK the installation of Garner as viceroy will be doomed. I heard/read somewhere last week that the Brits would supervise S Iraq, and I presume this would be to minimize the image of US troops taking over those oil fields. As you suggest, the US may be very distracted in N Iraq. Looks like there may be plenty of opportunities ahead to study the body and facial movement of Perle and Cheney. It was interesting watching Bush answer reporters questions yesterday: seated; he looked flushed and agitated. I briefly saw the reason: Daschle was sitting on the sofa not 5 feet from him, leaning forward with elbows on his knees. Bush is known to carry a personal grudge and being this close to someone who just days ago made it a point to criticize him personally must have been very intolerable for Bush. As I recall, Daschle is a former intelligence officer in the Air Force. Frist is losing steam in the Senate (doctors may be arrogant problem-solvers and decision makers but they are not at heart warriors in the political game) and since Daschle has announced he will not seek the presidency it frees him to be more aggressive, even if it is a bit more sophisticated than that which DeLay can manage. Karen Although the world's eyes are concentrated on the spectacular bombing of Baghdad, I think we are already beginning to see the real focus of the war developing in northern Iraq around the Kirkuk oil complex. The Turks, after denying progress to American armour, are now themselves sending thousands of troops across the Iraqi border in order, they say, to stop Iraqi refugees flooding into their country. At the same time, the relatively sparse American special forces that have been dropped in are barely able to restrain the Kurds from invading Kirkuk and relieving their persecuted population there. Also, I remember reading a few days ago that the Iranians have sent an army of southern Shia Muslims up to the border near Kirkuk. It is quite possible that we will be seeing a three- or even four-way war going on quite soon in the Kirkuk region. Undoubtedly, the Americans will win in the end when their two big armoured Divisions from Germany and Texas finally get there next month. American control will then be unified all the way down the Tigris river valley to the oilfields around Basra. This zone will require vast financial inputs to restore present levels of production and to develop the great potential that hasn't been tapped so far. It will thus be too important to await the formation of a stable Iraqi government in Baghdad -- which may take several years -- and a well-nigh permanent zone of occupation will result. I think it's likely that the Americans will impose a "Trusteeship" on the Tigris zone in order to distribute the profits to Iraq as a whole, as they have already stated. I doubt that this will happen initially until they've reimbursed themselves considerably for the costs of the war. Nor, I believe, will the Americans establish an impartial free market. Preference will be given to American and British oil corporations -- though the Americans will undoubtedly have to allow previous contracts with French, Russian and Chinese corporations to be reestablished. It's going to be many years before any sort of stable government will emerge from Baghdad, so the Tigris Zone might be a fixture for a long time to come. This, by itself, would be serious enough. But what would be the effect on Saudi Arabia and on their oilfields (the continuation of the archaic Tigris valley)? This is likely to be the final spark that will ignite the Wahhabis of this nasty, medieval kingdom to overthrow the royal family (and try to establish an even nastier regime). America already has special troops all around Saudi Arabia and will have to go in to protect the oilfields. And what about the millions of young unemployed people in Iran who yearn for a western way of life and who are increasingly demonstrating against their clerics? What would the Americans do if this were to happen next door to the Tigris Zone? We may now be seeing the beginning of a conflagration spreading throughout the Middle East. America's financial integrity is now only hanging by a thread (the support of its current account deficit by immense funds from the central banks of south-east Asia) and it might soon become a case of America-the-Desperate instead of America-the-Triumphant. In President Nixon's time there was serious talk of a coup-d'�tat by senior Army officers because they were (quite rightly) concerned with Nixon's mental state. I think it's quite possible that, within six months, there might be talk of another one in order to overthrow the present group around Bush and formulate a new Middle East policy. The two recent resignations of middle-ranking career officers in the State Department are the merest tip of an iceberg of deep unease by more senior people to Bush's present policies. Keith Hudson ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------- Keith Hudson,6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel:01225 312622/444881; Fax:01225 447727; E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
