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Stratfor
Weekly (free intel) 10.27.03: Ramadan attacks raise fears of global violence Key selected
excerpts: “The string of attacks in Iraq raises an alarming
question for U.S. and other Western countries fighting al Qaeda: Were these
attacks a symbolic trigger -- a message from al Qaeda to its allies around the
globe -- to kickstart a
campaign of attacks
against Western allies, assets and infrastructure across the globe? Although
the answer currently is unclear, the bombings will cause Western governments
and businesses to respond as though Ramadan will be a month of bloodletting. …The ability of militant Islamist organizations to act in concert on a global scale is a critical concern for the United States and its
allies. Washington's war against al Qaeda is in part psychological, and both
sides need to demonstrate that the other cannot operate globally without
substantial risk. Al Qaeda hopes to raise the costs of U.S. involvement in the
Gulf region high enough that Washington will pull out. The United States needs
to break al Qaeda's global network so that it eventually can back the group's
leadership into a geographic corner, lock it down and finally quash its
operational capability. … Who carried out the attacks remains unclear, and
the suspect list is long. The multiple attacks, coordinated within a 45-minute window and targeting sites in the central, north, south and western parts of
the city, indicate that the group responsible is sophisticated, has a solid knowledge of the areas and experience in planning and
logistics necessary for carrying out such operations. …Decision-makers in Washington, London, Canberra,
Madrid and elsewhere will be desperate to know the answers to these questions:
Were these attacks dictated solely by local issues? Were they conducted by the
Sunni guerrillas or foreign fighters? Are they tied only to the U.S. occupation
in Iraq, or are they meant to signal to groups -- such as the Jemaah Islamiyah
in Indonesia, the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Salafist Group for Preaching and
Combat in Algeria and the Aden-Abyan Army in Yemen or sleeper cells in the
United States -- to launch their own attacks against Westerners and their
allies? Al Qaeda is a global network but also an operational
unit formerly based in Afghanistan that might still be directing attacks
against the United States and its allies in the Gulf. Al Qaeda Prime, the senior leadership's operating unit based in Afghanistan --
which conducted the Sept. 11 attacks and other major operations -- has never
used symbolic dates for operational activities. … Al Qaeda Prime still needs to show that it
continues to survive if it hopes to take the war against the Americans beyond
the Gulf. Using the start
of Ramadan as an agreed launch date for a global terrorism campaign would resonate with radicals
throughout the world. .. Western governments are worried about Ramadan
attacks. Australia,
Britain and the United States all warned their citizens within the last few days of specific
plots in Saudi Arabia……..A spate of bombings in Los Angeles, New Delhi, Rio de Janeiro, Madrid and Sydney would
serve as a remarkable victory for al Qaeda and a mortal blow to the U.S. war
against terrorism. (end of
excerpts. Attached in full) |
STRATFOR Ramadan attacks heighten fears of global violence 102703.doc
Description: MS-Word document
