Stratfor Weekly (free intel) 10.27.03:
Ramadan attacks raise fears of global
violence
Key selected excerpts:
"The string
of attacks in Iraq raises an alarming question for U.S. and other Western
countries fighting al Qaeda: Were these attacks a symbolic trigger -- a
message from al Qaeda to its allies around the globe -- to
kickstart a
campaign of
attacks against Western allies, assets and infrastructure across the globe?
Although the answer currently is unclear, the bombings will cause Western
governments and businesses to respond as though Ramadan will be a month of
bloodletting.
...The
ability of militant Islamist organizations to act in
concert on a global scale is a
critical concern for the United States and its allies. Washington's war
against al Qaeda is in part psychological, and both sides need to
demonstrate that the other cannot operate globally without substantial risk.
Al Qaeda hopes to raise the costs of U.S. involvement in the Gulf region
high enough that Washington will pull out. The United States needs to break
al Qaeda's global network so that it eventually can back the group's
leadership into a geographic corner, lock it down and finally quash its
operational capability.
... Who
carried out the attacks remains unclear, and the suspect list is long. The
multiple
attacks, coordinated within a 45-minute window and targeting
sites in the central, north, south and western parts of the city, indicate
that the group
responsible is sophisticated, has
a solid
knowledge of the areas and experience in planning and logistics necessary
for carrying out such operations.
...Decision-makers
in Washington, London, Canberra, Madrid and elsewhere will be desperate to
know the answers to these questions: Were these attacks dictated solely by
local issues? Were they conducted by the Sunni guerrillas or foreign
fighters? Are they tied only to the U.S. occupation in Iraq, or are they
meant to signal to groups -- such as the Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia, the
Taliban in Afghanistan, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat in
Algeria and the Aden-Abyan Army in Yemen or sleeper cells in the United
States -- to launch their own attacks against Westerners and their
allies?
Al Qaeda
is a global network but also an operational unit formerly based in
Afghanistan that might still be directing attacks against the United States
and its allies in the Gulf. Al Qaeda
Prime, the
senior leadership's operating unit based in Afghanistan -- which conducted
the Sept. 11 attacks and other major operations -- has never used symbolic
dates for operational activities.
... Al
Qaeda Prime still needs to show that it continues to survive if it hopes to
take the war against the Americans beyond the Gulf. Using the
start of Ramadan as an agreed launch date for a
global terrorism campaign would resonate with radicals throughout the
world.
.. Western
governments are worried about Ramadan attacks. Australia,
Britain and the United States all
warned their citizens within the last few days of specific plots in Saudi
Arabia........A spate of
bombings in Los
Angeles, New Delhi, Rio de Janeiro, Madrid and Sydney would serve as a
remarkable victory for al Qaeda and a mortal blow to the U.S. war against
terrorism. (end of
excerpts. Attached in full)
