15 BCE is a date of no importance at all, neither artistically nor
historically. It is, thus, just another hypothesis - as it was with de
Vaux's 31 BCE date. On the contrary, 20 BCE  was such a turning
point - at least in the Herodian cult architecture. In so far Bar-Nathan's
end-date of period 1b in 15 BCE doesn't impress me much.
Moreover, the beginning of period II in 4 BCE not only correlates with a
rebuilding of Khibet Q. on a small scale, but likewise with the dawn of the
Zealot Movement, for we have to calculate with a Judas-doublet in Josephus.
Would be much better, then, to talk about a one-generation gap between
period 1b and II, the time between Herod's internal military raids against
opponents and the 'Eagle Affair'.

The C-14 technique, as is known, doesn't work properly in the calculation of
events of the younger past. The range of 50 years is completely inacceptable
for us - any result is just a rough frame for further analyses. An organic
burial object of  e.g. Ronald Reagan would show a date of  ~2000 CE +/-
25 years, which would allow to backdate his birth into the late19th century,
to make him contemporary of Karl Marx.

- Dierk





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