On 4/4/2014 6:08 AM, thomas reed wrote:
Steve
I have been working in Biomass Energy for a few decades. Here's a
note I wrote myself yesterday:
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FRACKED FUTURE PLANS
Human energy, mental and physical, has enabled us to rise far above
our physical limitations and to have a high standard of living
compared to our Cro-Magnon ancestors, 100.000 years ago. (He also
masterminded taking 6,000 Danish Jews to Sweden, just before the
Festapo came to round them up.)
One of my specialties has long been gasification of Biomass as an
alternative to petroleum.
My grandparents enjoyed the first wave of fossil fuel energy in the
form of Producer Gas, made by partial oxidation of coal to CO, H2 and
CH4. My early Mentor, Harry LaFontaine in Denmark, manufactured
biomass gasifiers for cars and trucks for civilians while the military
frittered away all the oil on WARS.
My Office mate at Shell Oil, M. King Hubbard, became famous in his
last years for predicting PEAK OIL in the US to occur around year
2000, based on the drilled holes per year vs producing wells per year.
If this had occurred, the cost of gasoline/diesel would be rising
rapidly.
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INSTEAD, the cost of gas/diesel may be dropping, but much of current
cost in the US is determined by taxes, infrastructure etc, not the
real cost of finding and producing the oil, which is probably less
than $1/bbl (44gal), 2c/gal!! OIL IS NATURES GIFT TO HUMANS!
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INSTEAD, Hydraulic FRACKING has emerged to increase supplies of oil.
and gas. Previous extraction relied on drilling a vertical hole into
a horizontal oil strata, and collecting as much oil as could flow
naturally to the center.
FRACKING depends on horizontal drilling at the bottom of old wells,
followed by pressurized injection of materials that prop up the oil
bearing strata, allowing old oil to flow freely to the old wells and
new wells. This technology could more than double the age of oil.
Gasification can't compete for the foreseeable future. The world will
be bathed in cheap oil and gas for the next century! I give up on
gasification.
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WoodGas stoves are still a possible option in deepest Africa. Dean
Still is taking care of that!
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COMMENTS?
Tom Reed
Hi Tom,
This makes assumptions about a relatively smooth linear progress of our
current global economy and its supporting infrastructure. If this is
the case you are probably right, and if you are working in this field
for financial returns, they are unlikely to be found in other than in
nitche markets.
However, there are several reason to think these assumptions are unlikely.
The global infrastructure has become so complex and interdependent that
a variety of failures, natural or orchestrated, could cause cascading
catastrophic failures that could take a long time to repair. The
probability of this increases as complexity and interdependence of
infrasttructure elements increases.
The economic problems in the developed world are unlikely to find smooth
solutions. There doesn't seem to be the willpower to implement long
term solutions that are painful in the short run.
Either of these problems could result in wars or simply damage to
the infrasturcture that disrupts the delivery of energy locally. The
localities may include much of the world.
In either of these cases local energy solutions may be very needed.
Concerns for the welfare of your children and grandchildren could be an
adequate motivation for working in this field if you can without
expecting large financial returns.
Regards,
Craig
On Thursday, April 3, 2014, Steven Barber (RIT Student)
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
Hi Tom,
I've been doing some research on the price of commodities for
several years now. Since global producers of oil can quickly ramp
up (or down) production to meet any level of current demand, we
can essentially take out supply and demand out of the equation
(except for the very short term refinery explosion, Nigerian coup,
etc.). Since oil is priced in dollars, the relative value of the
dollar itself determines the price of oil. More value, less
dollars needed to buy, less value, more dollars needed to buy. For
stable oil prices, we simply need a steady or slightly increasing
value of the dollar.
Regards,
-Steve
On Wed, Apr 2, 2014 at 9:41 PM, thomas reed
<[email protected]
<javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','[email protected]');>> wrote:
Long term, I believe that FRACKING will make oil prices
stable, so don't count on oil increasing in price.
COMMENTS?
Tom Reed
--
Steven T. Barber
MS Finance '12
PhD Sustainability Student
Golisano Institute for Sustainability
Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT)
585-582-1574 - Office
585-370-8598 - Cell
--
NOTE: PLEASE CHANGE MY ADDRESS TO [email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>
Dr. Thomas B. Reed
The Biomass Energy Foundation
BEF, BEC, BER
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