I believe that the pricing formula is very complex and may or may not track
toward just supply and demand. Most of the refineries in this country are
operating at nearly full capacity and there are no new ones coming on line,
partly due to regulatory hurdles taking decades to get permitted and partly
from the low margin on the throughput, I have heard as low as 2%, a serious
impediment to an investment of billion or more dollars for a new one.?
Of course, there are always politically motivated actions such at the
Keystone Pipeline that can affect pricing at any time and have no particular
predictability.?
?? ? ? ? In a localized event, a Texas refinery went down for a turnaround and
the prices in the area rose significantly.?
On the demand side, we have cars getting more fuel efficient and some
expanding mass transit, which makes the formula more complex. Some EU cars get
40% more milage than the same US models, Ford makes a very high efficiency
engine in the US, exports it and cannot use it in US vehicles although it meets
EU and US emission standards?
Further, on the supply side, fracking and other recovery processes have
permanently affected natural gas supply, however with the limited refining
capacity, the liquid fuel production is not as easily affected.?
With fracking, the US is becoming less dependent on foreign oil and
before the large Mideast finds, Texas crude was the world benchmark, and may
return to that some day, going way out on a limb.?
My conclusion is that oil pricing is largely a political product and as
long as the status quo stays, will continue to be so.??.?
Sincerely,
Leland T. "Tom" Taylor
Thermogenics Inc.?
-----Original Message-----
From: Steven Barber (RIT Student) <[email protected]>
To: Discussion of biomass pyrolysis and gasification
<[email protected]>
Sent: Thu, Apr 3, 2014 6:15 am
Subject: Re: [Gasification] Demonstration and Training Unit
Hi Tom,
I've been doing some research on the price of commodities for several years
now. Since global producers of oil can quickly ramp up (or down) production to
meet any level of current demand, we can essentially take out supply and demand
out of the equation (except for the very short term refinery explosion,
Nigerian coup, etc.). Since oil is priced in dollars, the relative value of the
dollar itself determines the price of oil. More value, less dollars needed to
buy, less value, more dollars needed to buy. For stable oil prices, we simply
need a steady or slightly increasing value of the dollar.
Regards,
-Steve
On Wed, Apr 2, 2014 at 9:41 PM, thomas reed <[email protected]>
wrote:
Long term, I believe that FRACKING will make oil prices stable, so don't count
on oil increasing in price.?
COMMENTS?
Tom Reed
--
Steven T. Barber
MS Finance '12
PhD Sustainability Student
Golisano Institute for Sustainability
Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT)
585-582-1574 - Office
585-370-8598 - Cell
_______________________________________________ Gasification mailing list
to Send a Message to the list, use the email address
[email protected] to UNSUBSCRIBE or Change your List Settings
use the web page
http://lists.bioenergylists.org/mailman/listinfo/gasification_lists.bioenergylists.org
for more Gasifiers, News and Information see our web site:
http://gasifiers.bioenergylists.org/
_______________________________________________
Gasification mailing list
to Send a Message to the list, use the email address
[email protected]
to UNSUBSCRIBE or Change your List Settings use the web page
http://lists.bioenergylists.org/mailman/listinfo/gasification_lists.bioenergylists.org
for more Gasifiers, News and Information see our web site:
http://gasifiers.bioenergylists.org/
