On Feb 8, 2009, at 12:46 PM, Oliver Barry wrote:

> But predicting how a teenage high school athlete will develop and  
> perform at the next level is much more art than science, and even  
> those who do it for a living concede history is full of examples of  
> touted recruits who fizzle and largely unwanted players who turn  
> out to be stars.

You see an article like this every recruiting year.

It's nothing more than selection bias. With a pool that large, you  
can always find some unheralded players that became stars and some  
sure-things that fizzled.

That said, go back a few years and look who are top three rated  
recruits were:

Tebow
Harvin
Spikes

Sometimes the analysts get it right, too. That article never seems to  
be written.

-Zeb



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