An important consideration in predicting which will be stars, you also have to recognize that a very small percentage of players are designated as "5 Star". Actually approximately 5% of players will receive this designation. That means that the remaining 95% of players receive a lesser designation. As Zeb pointed out the great majority of "5 Stars" (like ours mentioned), do pan out, but some of them don't, and this gets far more notice than the ones of the remaining players that don't get the attention because of lesser expectations. With the vast number of lesser ranked player, more numbers of them may succeed making an erroneous impression that unranked players succeed at a higher rate than ranked players, because of sheer numbers, when in actuality, the far greater percentage of ranked 5 Star players succeed, but by raw numbers there will be more numerically from the unranked group succeeding, but a far lower percentage of them are actually making it in comparison to the 5 Star group........ clear as mud?????? :-)
Ed ----- Original Message ----- From: John Vega To: [email protected] Sent: Monday, February 09, 2009 9:39 AM Subject: [gatortalk] Re: [gatornews] Nashville Tennessean: Recruiting an inexact science On Feb 8, 2009, at 12:46 PM, Oliver Barry wrote: But predicting how a teenage high school athlete will develop and perform at the next level is much more art than science, and even those who do it for a living concede history is full of examples of touted recruits who fizzle and largely unwanted players who turn out to be stars. You see an article like this every recruiting year. It's nothing more than selection bias. With a pool that large, you can always find some unheralded players that became stars and some sure-things that fizzled. That said, go back a few years and look who are top three rated recruits were: Tebow Harvin Spikes Sometimes the analysts get it right, too. That article never seems to be written. -Zeb --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ GATORS: ONE VOICE ON SATURDAY - NO VOICE ON SUNDAY! 1996 National Football Champions | 2006 National Basketball Champions 2006 National Football Champions | 2007 National Basketball Champions 2008 National Football Champions | Three Heisman Trophy winners: Steve Spurrier (1966), Danny Wuerffel (1996), Tim Tebow (2007) - Visit our website at www.gatornet.us -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
