*RALAT* *MAAF ADA KESALAHAN TECHNIS *( TERJADI PENGULANGAN kALIMAT YG SAMA )
*Seharusnya adalah sbb :* Quite diffrent and Quite indifferent and yet so interesting Analysis on > Trump' triumph and His near future Policy in South East Asia that's so > called *Pax Americana in the Asia–Pacific* > > On 11 November 2016 at 10:26, B.DORPI P. <[email protected]> wrote: > >> >> >> *http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/trump-pax-americana-asia-pacific/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Daily%20The%20Strategist+CID_4cb358ab75f931967e0c235dd720705c&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=Trump%20Pax%20Americana%20in%20the%20AsiaPacific* >> <http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/trump-pax-americana-asia-pacific/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Daily%20The%20Strategist+CID_4cb358ab75f931967e0c235dd720705c&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=Trump%20Pax%20Americana%20in%20the%20AsiaPacific> >> >> *11 Nov 2016* >> >> >> >> [image: Image courtesy of Flickr user Gage Skidmore.] >> >> *The election of Donald Trump is the political equivalent of a nuclear >> bomb, an explosion that not only destroys the immediate environment but >> also scatters radioactive fallout far away, with damage that can last for >> years.* >> >> *The first casualties in the US are obvious—Hillary Clinton and the >> Democratic Party, and the political establishment in the US writ large, >> although some familiar faces from inside the Washington Beltway will no >> doubt sheepishly turn up in Trump’s administration.* >> >> The potential damage to America’s standing and interest in the >> Asia-Pacific is also clear. Trump has long been antagonistic towards >> *Japan,* starting from the trade wars of the eighties. More recently, he >> has threatened to impose punitive tariffs on *Chinese imports* and has >> said the US Treasury should immediately declare Beijing a currency >> manipulator. >> >> *On national security, Trump has singled out Japan, South Korea and NATO >> for freeloading on the US,* vowing that they will pay a greater share of >> the cost of American troops on their soil. He seems indifferent to >> blowing up the postwar status quo, and the prospect of Japan and South >> Korea going nuclear, to take responsibility for their own security. >> >> All of this is consistent with views Trump has espoused for decades. He >> is anti-free trade, suspicious of globalisation and unconvinced about >> Washington’s role as the prime security guarantor in places far from the >> homeland, in Asia, Europe and the Middle East. >> >> Asked by Playboy magazine in 1990 >> <https://filthy.media/donald-trump-playboy-interview> to describe >> President Trump’s foreign policy, Trump replied: >> >> *‘He would believe very strongly in extreme military strength. He >> wouldn’t trust anyone. He wouldn’t trust the Russians; he wouldn’t trust >> our allies; he’d have a huge military arsenal, perfect it, understand it. >> Part of the problem is that we’re defending some of the wealthiest >> countries in the world for nothing. … We’re being laughed at around the >> world, defending Japan.’* >> >> All *that rings true today.* The most damaging impact to Pax Americana >> in the Asia-Pacific, though, might be in the longer-term fallout rather >> than the immediate explosions that we’re witnessing now. >> >> For all of the dramatic cycles of US domestic and diplomatic politics in >> the postwar era, through the Korean and Vietnam wars, Watergate, the >> strategic drift of the early year of Bill Clinton’s presidency, the >> disastrous second Iraq war and the financial crisis of 2008, the US has >> always displayed a capacity to renew itself and its global standing. >> >> *The US remains the largest economy in the world by some distance.* It >> still has military and intelligence assets spread throughout the >> Asia-Pacific, from South Korea all the way down to Australia. In the >> short-term, Trump can do little to change that, even if he wanted to do. >> >> On top of its hard assets, America also has had huge soft power appeal as >> an open, vibrant and creative society with intangible ingredients of >> success that foreigners would love to be able to emulate. >> >> With or without Trump, the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific is in the >> midst of huge change. Long before the US election, regional nations were >> increasingly feeling squeezed between the superpower they have long been >> comfortable with, the US, and its rising rival, China, which would >> ultimately like to replace it as the regional hegemon. >> >> *No nation in the region wants to be forced to choose between the US and >> China.** Nearly all would like both of these superpowers to co-exist and >> co-operate in a way that benefits all.* ( !!!! / marco) >> >> *Trump, an unpredictable narcissist with zero governing experience,* has >> the capacity to upend that equation in ways that will run down the position >> of the US and elevate the standing of China. Nations that are already >> hedging their bets will start instinctively to lean towards Beijing. >> >> In some scenarios, regional leaders could warm to Trump. Long an >> aficionado of strongmen leaders, he is likely to be generally indifferent >> to complaints about human rights abuses. *Cambodia’s Hun Sen has **applauded >> his win* >> <http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-cambodia-idUSKBN12Y0CH?il=0>*. >> The Philippines Rodrigo Duterte also **issued a positive statement* >> <http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919410/Philippines-Duterte-congratulates-Trump-wants-work-minister.html> >> *.* >> >> As someone who prides himself as an expert negotiator, Trump may also be >> convinced that he needs to shore up ties with Japan and ASEAN nations to >> strengthen his hand in dealing with Beijing.* Shinzo Abe’s **rapid >> outreach to Trump* >> <http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/11/10/national/politics-diplomacy/abe-trump-look-meet-next-week-new-york/#.WCUHZ8mWXRY>*—he >> was one of the first foreign leaders to talk to him—suggests he is thinking >> along those lines too.* >> >> But *Trump’s longstanding views may push him in the opposite direction.* >> His instinctive reaction in any disagreement is to pick a fight with his >> opponent. There’s no bigger target in Asia than China, which Trump >> repeatedly attacked on the campaign trail. That threatens to be a disaster >> if it gets out of control. A trade war with China, after all, is >> effectively a trade war with Asia, because of the way that manufacturing >> supply chains wind their way through multiple countries before finally >> being shipped from China to the US. >> >> The Trump’s team most important adviser on China is academic, *Peter >> Navarro,* who has long demonized China as an enemy of the US. Asked >> about China, Navarro made no bones >> <https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/18/donald-trump-china-adviser-peter-navarro-news-corp-murdoch> >> about the chances of commercial conflict with China. ‘To those who say >> Donald Trump will start a trade war, Trump says we are already in a trade >> war,’ he said, ‘it’s long past time we fought back.’ >> >> *Trump is largely ignorant of, or indifferent to, the region’s >> increasingly important regional forums*, like the East Asia leaders’ >> annual summit. Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a >> point of turning up to regional meetings, to display their commitment to >> the region. Trump may fall back into a pattern of benign neglect. >> >> If Trump succeeds at restoring vitality to the US economy, then the rest >> of the world might be willing to indulge his vanities and ignore his >> nastiness. But if he really does mean half of what he said on the campaign >> trail, then Asian nations will have to think long and hard about a new >> start themselves. >> >> *If Donald Trump’s America will no longer underwrite their prosperity and >> security, the countries that relied on the US will have to find that >> support somewhere else.* >> Author >> >> *Richard McGregor* was *Financial Times bureau chief in Beijing and >> Washington,* and previously reported for *The Australian* from Japan and >> China. He is the author of *‘The Party: The Secret World of China’s >> Communist Rulers’ *and is finishing a new book on Sino-Japanese >> relations. Image courtesy of Flickr user Gage Skidmore >> <https://www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/23772709976/>. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> > > >
