Kelihatannya anda concern sekali dgn utang USA, tetapi sadarkah bahwa utang
Tiongkok itu tidak kalah besar. Dibawah kutipan dari Reuters:
"China's debt is more than 250 percent of GDP, higher than the United States.
It remains lower than Japan, the world's most indebted leading economy, but
some experts say the concern is that China debt has surged at the sort of pace
that usually leads to financial bust and economic slump."
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-DEBT-GRAPHIC/0100315H2LG/
Sekarang begini saja, hipotetikal skenarion seandainya US dan RRT cetak duit
buat bayar utang, apa efek yg menimpa masing2?
On Tuesday, June 20, 2017 1:57 PM, kh djie <[email protected]> wrote:
Daripada Amerika utang pada negeri lain, dan mau kemudian bayar kembali dengan
cetak uang, apa bedanya dengan tidak utang, tetapi cetak uang sendiri lebih
banyak ?Cetak uang lebih banyak untuk salah satu keperluan ini, teknis bisa,
tetapi ekonomis rugi , ekonomi bisa bertahun tahun rusak..Keterangannya tsb. di
bawah
:https://www.quora.com/Why-dont-we-simply-print-16-Billion-1000-bills-and-pay-off-our-debt
Why don't we simply print 16 Billion $1000 bills and pay off our debt?11
AnswersJosh Wood, economusician.Updated Sep 22, 2012Why hasn't anyone else
thought of this? Julian is partly correct that no one would want to lend to us
anymore. But if we were able to pay off our loans by just printing more money,
why did we ever need to borrow it in the first place? Let's entertain that
thought in a moment.
First, to address your immediate question, we could potentially resolve our
debt problem in that way, but it would lead to much bigger problems. Primarily,
it would result in hyperinflation, as was suggested, with 16 trillion new US
dollars in international hands and over a trillion of that in China alone--a
dramatic increase in national income everywhere except the US. That income
spike would cause aggregate demand for goods purchasable in USD to soar.
Merchants would naturally respond by increasing the price of their goods,
restabilizing the real value of the dollar.
The consequences of such a series of events would be catastrophic. The
purchasing power of the dollar would decrease enormously. This would place
strain on American buyers who now have to pay more for goods without the higher
income that China has received and thus cause a recession that would dwarf that
of 2008. Unemployment would spike, as many firms would find it advantageous to
migrate to China and elsewhere where there is new demand for their products.
Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China, for one, would be pissed because, even
though they now have more dollars than they did before, those dollars aren't
worth nearly as much as when they sold that debt to the US. Whereas before $1.3
trillion could have bought China, say, 200 aircraft carriers (fairly close to
current market price), after inflation of this variety it might only buy them
20. And you and I both know that China's in this for the aircraft carriers.
They would begrudgingly buy those 20 carriers and haul them across the Pacific
to vent their frustrations against our now-decrepit Treasury in person.
Meanwhile, we'd be firing bows and arrows from canoes like those island people
that went to war with the US in that British movie.
Doomsday scenarios aside, we would end up with two major problems (among
others, for sure): a devastating recession and a diplomatic fallout with China
(and other servicers of US debt).
Basically, the dollar is only valuable if it's scarce, because we use it to
procure scarce resources. When it's no longer scarce, its no longer transitive
as a currency and has no value. So, in reality, the reason that other countries
would no longer lend us money if we freely printed our own is because the
exchange rate between the dollar and any other currency would approach zero,
leaving banks and merchants with nothing to gain by transacting in US dollars.
There would be no incentive for nations to produce anything of real value,
rendering the concept of GDP meaningless. Furthermore, if we could resolve debt
by just printing bills, there would be nothing to prevent other
countries/central banks from doing so--and you would end up in a world full of
meaningless currency.
2017-06-20 21:46 GMT+02:00 Jonathan Goeij [email protected] [GELORA45]
<[email protected]>:
Bung Djie, Tiongkok punya cadangan devisa USD 3 T, apakah anda pikir semuanya
uang kertas?
---In [email protected], <djiekh@...> wrote :
Jadi kalau Amerika utang x biljoen dollar, terus cetak x biljoen dollar,
bayarkan ke Amerika dan jepang, lalu utangnya tinggal nol ? Apa ya, utang itu
dibayar uang cash ?Kok saya dengar2 bayarnya lewat balans suatu negara lewat
berbagai bank. Seperti Indonesia itu katanya punya cadangan dollar ada di
berbagai bank Singapore, Inggris, Belanda, Swiss dll. ?
2017-06-20 20:17 GMT+02:00 Jonathan Goeij jonathangoeij@... [ GELORA45]
<GELORA45@ yahoogroups.com>:
Bung Djie, kelihatannya anda masih penasaran/bingung apa bedanya pengaruh cetak
duit thd utang dalam mata uangnya sendiri dan bukan mata uangnya sendiri. Saya
beri contoh sederhana secara tehnis:
Misal:Nilai sebelum cetak duit rupiah = 10 ribu / USDUtang dollar 1000 USD atau
Rp 10 juta
cetak duit, rupiah terdevaluasi
Nilai setelah cetak duit rupiah = 15 ribu / USDUtang 1000 USD jadi Rp 15 juta
dus setelah cetak duit utk bayar utang 1000 USD itu bukan lagi Rp 10 juta
tetapi Rp 15 juta. terlihat cetak duit tidak bermanfaat.
sedang kalau utang dlm rupiah katakanlah 10 juta, sebelum atau sesudah cetak
duit ya tetap sama 10 juta. disini manfaat cetak duit buat bayar utang jadi
optimal.
---In [email protected] , <djiekh@...> wrote :
What is the 'Fisher Effect'
The Fisher effect is an economic theory proposed by economist Irving Fisher
that describes the relationship between inflation and both real and nominal
interest rates. The Fisher effect states that the real interest rate equals to
the nominal interest rate minus the expected inflation rate. Therefore, real
interest rates fall as inflation increases, unless nominal rates increase at
the same rate as inflation.
Read more: Fisher Effect http://www. investopedia.com/terms/f/
fishereffect.asp#ixzz4kYXRpvxK
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook
2017-06-20 17:16 GMT+02:00 Jonathan Goeij <jonathangoeij@...>:
---In [email protected] , <nesare1@...> wrote :
