Purely on my own, I beg to differ on this analysis regarding John Holdren¹s position, having been a coauthor of the report done for the UN Commission on Sustainable Development (see http://www.unfoundation.org/press-center/press-releases/2007/science-panel-o utlines-roadmap-climate-change.html). John¹s basic position has been, for example, that we are already committed to what can be called dangerous anthropogenic interference and the only question is whether we can avoid catastrophic climate change. And I would suggest he understands all the mainline aspects of what we have been talking about (see http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/index.php/csw/details/obama_holdren/).
On the issue of how hard this issue is to deal with, a lot depends on the choice made regarding the discount rate and approach. Sure, a high discount rate makes it look hard or impossible‹a low one makes clearer that we have no choice, and it is far better to make the transition than not. Check out John Harte¹s book (http://www.cooltheearth.us/index.php ) to get a sense of what US could be doing. Mike MacCracken On 12/19/08 10:09 PM, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote: > All: > > Tom Wigley & Ken C are both right. > > We need the geo group, but more important, this is the moment to speak truth > to power. Our proper channel is John Holdren, and I share Tom's feelings, > because I know him well. > > John & I were postdocs at Livermore in the late 1960s. We're old friends. He > wasn't much as a theoretical physicist but showed policy skills. I recall Ed > Teller asking if I thought he could handle laision with the fusion/environment > community then developing and I said yes. John went to Berkeley as a policy > guy & I went to UC Irvine to do physics, though I could have stayed at > Livermore; I liked surfing better. > > John is a cautious mover, reliable because he won't push the boundaries. An > apparatchik. Coming out of Stanford, working with the Ehrlichs, he knows > energy policy, but not the sort of physics we do here in the geo group. He > needs educating. > > I worked at the Washington level before John, as a Soviet and defense type in > the Reagan era, though I'm a Democrat. I never liked the policy swamp; John > lives there. > > Tom is right: John doesn't appreciate the enormity of our problem, the > efficiencies of geoengineering, or the speed of the environment's > accelerations. We have to reach him through the layers designed to slow down > change . Doing this demands deft policy connections and scrupulous use of real > world data. > > I think that's our next major challenge, if we are to serve as collective Paul > Reveres for a revolution that will take a century to play out. > > Gregory Benford > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Tom Wigley <[email protected]> > To: [email protected] > Cc: [email protected]; geoengineering <[email protected]> > Sent: Fri, 19 Dec 2008 5:53 pm > Subject: [geo] Re: REGARDING DETERIORATION OF GEOENGINEERING GOOGLEGROUP > > Dear all, > > Altho I have great respect for John Holdren, there are > two issues where we have different opinions. First, he > has failed to realize what an enormous technology > challenge we face to keep CO2 at an acceptable level > through mitigation. Second, he leans towards being against > geoengineering. > > Alvia gave us the following quote ... > >> > The Œgeo-engineering¹ approaches considered so far appear > > to be afflicted with some combination of high costs, low > > leverage, and a high likelihood of serious side effects.² > > In my view, this is wrong in the combined mitigation/geoeng > case that I espouse. > > Tom. > > ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ > > > William Fulkerson wrote: >> > Dear Ken: >> > I second John Latham's note except I would choose the se > cond option. >> > Both options are rather bad, however. Geo has accomplished what I had >> > hoped it might. It has provided a global forum on geoengineering and >> > related themes. In my opinion this Google Group attention will lead >> > ultimately to the R&D funding needed to test various geoengineering >> > schemes. That's is what many of us need to see. You deserve the >> > credit, but don't stop now. You are close to victory. We need Geo until >> > someone in Government takes the lead and is serious about providing an >> > adequate R&D program and budget. >> > With best regards, >> > Bill >> > On Dec 19, 2008, at 2:00 PM, Ken Caldeira wrote: >> > >>> >> Folks, >>> >> >>> >> The original goal of this googlegroup was to transmit information that >>> >> would be useful to professionals and informed citizens concerned with >>> >> issues relating to intentional intervention in the climate system. >>> >> >>> >> The quality of posts on this group has, in my opinion, deteriorated to >>> >> the point that it is no longer able to fulfill this primary purpose >>> >> adequately. >>> >> >>> >> I think there are two basic options: >>> >> >>> >> 1. I can moderate this group more ruthlessly and reject any message >>> >> that does not actually transmit new relevant information or raise a >>> >> question that has not already been discussed at length. ( In this >>> >> case, I will make many enemies as I reject messages from >>> >> well-intentioned people. ) I will not have time to give each submitter >>> >> of a rejected posting my20reasons for rejecting the posting. >>> >> >>> >> 2. I can abandon this group to people with much more time on their hands. >>> >> >>> >> So, for me, the question is down to tightening the reigns, or letting >>> >> them go. >>> >> >>> >> Comments? >>> >> >>> >> Best, >>> >> >>> >> Ken >>> >> >>> >> >>> >> >>> >> ___________________________________________________ >>> >> Ken Caldeira >>> >> >>> >> Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology >>> >> 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA >>> >> >>> >> [email protected] <mailto:[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]?> >>> >; [email protected] >>> >> <mailto:[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]?> > >>> >> http://dge.stanford.edu/DGE/CIWDGE/labs/caldeiralab >>> >> +1 650 704 7212; fax: +1 650 462 5968 >>> >> >>> >> >>> >> >>> >> >> > >> > Bill Fulkerson, Senior Fellow >> > Institute for a Secure and Sustainable Environment >> > University of Tennessee >> > 311 Conference Center Bldg. >> > Knoxville, TN 37996-4138 >> > [email protected] <mailto:[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]?> > >> > 865-974-9221, -1838 FAX >> > Home >> > 865-988-8084; 865-680-0937 CELL >> > 2781 Wheat Road, Lenoir City, TN 37771 >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >>> > > > > > > > Listen to 350+ music, sports, & news radio stations – including songs for the > holidays – FREE while you browse. Start Listening Now > <http://toolbar.aol.com/aolradio/download.html?ncid=emlweusdown00000013> ! > > > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
