Hi All

Chris Green's argument implies some universal time scale. But geologists 
and cosmologists  would have very different views on what are short and 
long times from those of explosives engineers and chip designers.  This 
means that instead of the popular general usage we should look at the 
mathematical definitions of catastrophe which contain words like 
bifurcation, singularity, instability, cusp, changes of slope and 
irreversibility which fit well with arguments about Arctic ice and 
methane. You can even get catastrophic behaviour from algebraic equations.

The relevant time scale could be related to the time taken for political 
realization to lead to the correct the adaptation.  There is evidence 
from ice cores that some climate events can occur much more quickly than 
our present politics and technology are able to adapt.  It would be 
better to have a response before it is needed that when it is too late

Stephen

Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design
School of Engineering and Electronics
University of Edinburgh
Mayfield Road
Edinburgh EH9 3JL
Scotland
tel +44 131 650 5704
fax +44 131 650 5702
Mobile  07795 203 195
[email protected]
http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs   



Christopher Green, Prof. wrote:
>  A dictionary (Webster's) definition of "catastrophe" is: "a sudden and 
> terible event, e.g. an earthquake, flood or tornado, any disster affecting 
> one or more persons". 
>  
> By this definition a giant meteorite hitting earth is a "catastrophe", but 
> the relatively slow workings of climate change, while likely to be very 
> serious, is not well-described as a "catastrophe".
>  
> For this reason, the cautionary position taken by Alan, and by Tom Wigley, 
> and that are implicit in Ken's many clarificatory statements and in the Bala 
> article he recently circulated, are well taken.
>  
> Level-headedness, to say nothing of science and political judgment, might 
> benefit by (a lot) less use of the "c" word.
>  
>     Chris Green
>  
>  
>   

 


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