Hi all,

There was probably a record minimum Arctic sea ice volume in 2008, despite 
having been a "surprisingly cool year" (see John's analysis below).

This shows that the Arctic region is only loosely coupled to the rest of the 
world's climate system, such that it can continue its dramatic warming trend 
while the rest is cooling a bit.
 

Cheers,



John



 

From: John Davies 
Sent: 20 January 2009 18:07
To: [email protected]
Cc: Fiona Davis
Subject: GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2008 AND 2008

 

Hello Campaigners,

                  The global temperature figures for December have arrived from 
the Hadley Centre. The usual conventions apply. All the figures are positive 
and in degrees Celsius. They are the deviation from the 1961 - 90 global 
average. Simply add 0.09 to convert to temperatures above the global 
temperature up until 1976..

 

SST means Sea Surface Temperature south means Southern Hemisphere, North means 
Northern hemisphere. The most important figures are marked *.

 

Dec.    SST  South 0.22*                        North 0.28*                     
Globe 0.25  

            Land South 0.36*                       North 0.64*                  
  Globe 0.50

            Land and SST South 0.22*        North 0.39*                     
Globe 0.31*

 

2008 combined Land and SST.0.31*

 

My Comments.

This was a surprisingly cool end to a surprisingly cool year. 2008 was the 
tenth warmest year on record and there was a significant gap between this year 
and 1997 which was the ninth warmest year on record. The nine warmest years on 
record were significantly warmer than 2008. However 2008 was warmer than any 
year on record prior to 1997 and so the ten warmest years on record have all 
been since 1997 and in the last 12 years. Since 2008 was the coolest year since 
2000 it is also true that 7 of the 8 warmest years on record have been in the 
last 8 years.

 

The coolness of 2008 has been largely caused by less heating from the sun as it 
has been at it's solar minimum. Greater solar heating is expected very soon 
probably in 2009. Additionally there was a La Nina event for part of the year 
which was also a cooling influence. There is also a weak La Nina event at the 
present time which is expected to continue for a few months. 

 

A much warmer year is forecast for 2009 and the median forecast from the 
|Hadley Centre is for a global temperature of 0.44 degrees Celsius above the 
1961 - 90 global average temperature assuming that no very large volcano puts 
dust into the Stratosphere though I think this event quite likely.

 

All the Best,

 

John B Davies  personal

 


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