Hi, During recent period (10 to 15 years), if we observe plants and animals reactions in Europe, we find out that Nature seems to be lost ! Somme plants don't produce flowers (cold periods) or produce more flowers than usuall (hot periods). It seems that 50 years ago we did not observe such strong variations. For the moment, there is a change in the climate, but not an homogeneous increase of temperature. I would say that for the moment, we have a distortion of climate. The global increase of temperature is probably for the near future. And if this reasoning is right, (distortion in a first step - during ice melting - and temp increase in a second step - after ice desappearing) this probably change all actual forecast, that meens also that when it comes really, temp increase shall be very sudden and very high. François MAUGIS. ============================================================================ ==================
_____ De : [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] De la part de Albert Kallio Envoyé : mercredi 28 janvier 2009 21:39 À : [email protected]; John Nissen; Geoengineering FIPC Objet : [geo] Re: Fw: GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2008 AND 2008 We at FIPC agree what you intend to say. In July 2007 when there were extremely rapid sea ice melting at 200,000 km2 per day on the Arctic Ocean sea ice, there was a simultaneous occurrence of extraordinary flash-floods in Greenland south dome with huge elecrical storms. These same weather systems also influenced the British Isles with equally extraordinary flash-floods. Terry Marsh suggested that this was a strong anomaly while we at FIPC suggested that the sudden flip of snow and ice covered sea to the dark open water at rate of 200,000 km2 per day made the dry and cold polar air expansionary and this pushed the margin of polar air further south which guided the storms over Britain & Greenland. If our thesis is right, then every time when there is a very rapid loss of sea ice cover this expansionary polar air mass, that is warmed by albedo changes occurring under the athomosphere, instead of expecting the next flash floods to hit UK or Europe after 200 years, as suggested by Terry Marsh, we should see these conditions whenever there is rapid sudden peel off of the sea ice. The expansionary nature of dry air is upwards and outwards, and whilst the gas keeps expanding, the temperature rise is somehow curtailed by negative feedback from the volumetric rise as air spreads out wider and higher. We have seen outside of Britain severe floodings in Central Europe in 2002, 2005 and 2006 when there were also major meltings. On the reverse side, then there will be the intensified autumn time contraction that sucks in warm and moist air from the south and as replacement volumes keep growing, the effects of displaced unseasonal weather is only but more intense. However, our hypothesis for 2007 British and Greenland floods lives or dies with the issue if the coupling of sea ice loss and the more severe thermal gradient change further south will occur in future occasions of sea ice loss in Arctic. In my view the Arctic airmass over the North Pole is very arid and therefore it only has thermal expansion and contraction, rather than more complex condensation driven filling. The other effect we would like to emphasise is the ocean evaporation and snowfall increase, after the autumn of 2007 it also followed that the Northern Hemisphere had by February 2008 all-time record snow covered area stretching across Central Asia and China close to the Vietnamese borders killing 60% of subtropical forest during the cold frost spell there. Then this cold polar air mass from China moved to east and dissipated over the Northern Pacifice, perhaps intensifying the La Nina conditions there. I am therefore suggesting the summertime warming pulse to be followed by autumn evaporation pulse to be followed by the winter time record snow fall pulse. However, as the ground under the snow is warmed up, it is not resilient to the first spring time warm spells and it quicly melted away. Thus, despite all that extra snowfall, Yakutia was snow free month early in 2008. In the old times permafrost ground with no microbial activities under snow, preserved snow. I suggest these could be Type 2 Climate Change (abrubt climate changes) as per the Exeter Definitions. This is as far as we at FIPC can comment and support your arguments, though not yet proven. Rgs, Albert _____ From: [email protected] To: [email protected]; [email protected] Subject: [geo] Re: Fw: GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2008 AND 2008 Date: Wed, 28 Jan 2009 21:15:17 +0100 I remind you my comments dated 26 january: "OK for "superimposed temperature fluctuations" and "changes in ocean currents" but nobody speak about origin of those new, unexpected and hard temperature fluctuations (short but very cold or very hot unexpected periods, hurricanes stronger than usual, etc.) In my opinion, this origin is the rapid melting of ice. That means that, for the moment, the greenhouse effect is reduced by a quicker velocity of ice melting which cool the oceans. That means also that, when all Arctic and Antarctic ice shall disappear, we probably shall have a temperature increase much higher. " It could be interesting to know your comments about that opinion. François MAUGIS. ============================================================================ ================================================================= _____ De : [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] De la part de John Nissen Envoyé : mercredi 21 janvier 2009 00:09 À : geoengineering Objet : [geo] Fw: GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2008 AND 2008 Hi all, There was probably a record minimum Arctic sea ice volume in 2008, despite having been a "surprisingly cool year" (see John's analysis below). This shows that the Arctic region is only loosely coupled to the rest of the world's climate system, such that it can continue its dramatic warming trend while the rest is cooling a bit. Cheers, John From: John Davies Sent: 20 January 2009 18:07 To: [email protected] Cc: Fiona Davis Subject: GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DECEMBER 2008 AND 2008 Hello Campaigners, The global temperature figures for December have arrived from the Hadley Centre. The usual conventions apply. All the figures are positive and in degrees Celsius. They are the deviation from the 1961 – 90 global average. Simply add 0.09 to convert to temperatures above the global temperature up until 1976.. SST means Sea Surface Temperature south means Southern Hemisphere, North means Northern hemisphere. The most important figures are marked *. Dec. SST South 0.22* North 0.28* Globe 0.25 Land South 0.36* North 0.64* Globe 0.50 Land and SST South 0.22* North 0.39* Globe 0.31* 2008 combined Land and SST.0.31* My Comments. This was a surprisingly cool end to a surprisingly cool year. 2008 was the tenth warmest year on record and there was a significant gap between this year and 1997 which was the ninth warmest year on record. The nine warmest years on record were significantly warmer than 2008. However 2008 was warmer than any year on record prior to 1997 and so the ten warmest years on record have all been since 1997 and in the last 12 years. Since 2008 was the coolest year since 2000 it is also true that 7 of the 8 warmest years on record have been in the last 8 years. The coolness of 2008 has been largely caused by less heating from the sun as it has been at it’s solar minimum. Greater solar heating is expected very soon probably in 2009. Additionally there was a La Nina event for part of the year which was also a cooling influence. There is also a weak La Nina event at the present time which is expected to continue for a few months. A much warmer year is forecast for 2009 and the median forecast from the |Hadley Centre is for a global temperature of 0.44 degrees Celsius above the 1961 – 90 global average temperature assuming that no very large volcano puts dust into the Stratosphere though I think this event quite likely. All the Best, John B Davies personal -- Support Friends of the <https://www.foe.co.uk/?email_staff> Earth Friends of the Earth Limited - Company No 1012357 Friends of the Earth Trust - Company No 1533942 Registered Charity No 281681 Registered Office - 26 - 28 Underwood Street, London. N1 7JQ <BR --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
