This sounds like a treatment for acne, not out of control Type II diabetes which is the better analogy. Note that acne, however disconcerting and potentially disfiguring is not a fatal condition, whereas diabetes is. Also, there is no plan or projection for a "rapid decrease in petrochemical use" and the primary man-made source of the offset for CO2 forcing today is tropospheric sulfate aerosols which come not just from burning of transportation fuel but also from coal. Soot is a contributor, but not the main one. The projections suggest a gradual decrease in this offset, around 5% per year, so it will be decades before this really becomes an issue, whether or not petroleum is replaced by biofuels or hydrogen or electricity.
Increasing urban albedo may have some localized beneficial impacts on reduced ozone and lower AC use, but at best can offset perhaps 1-3% of present day CO2 forcing when applied maximally, something that even its proponents state will take several decades to implement. Of course, since we don't seem particularly interested in repairing the old potholed filled roads and streets in the US of today, I have my doubts about when we would get around to making them more reflective. There are days when I have to play Formula One driver to get to the post office, dodging asphalt moulins and their little brethren. Long term changes in how we live, use energy and produce food are needed, but climate change isn't going to wait for them. Reduce the human population to 2 billion? Are you serious? What do you propose, a lottery? We could simply nuke India and China right now, that's about one third of "the problem." Or how about inviting bin Laden to finish the job he started in New York, since we in the US use about 25% of the energy? As far as keeping the interglacial going, I'm all for it. Everything we have that is anything has been obtained in the last 10,000 years. Moving people to the tropics 5000 years from now so the Laurentide Ice Sheet can "restore minerals to the landscape" ignores the fact that during ice sheet maxima, droughts are common in the tropics. Your 2 billion survivors may have to make some difficult decisions. If the interglacial was scheduled to end 5000 years from now and we have postponed it by 300 years because of CO2 which we will likely have removed from the air within the next 100-200 years, then I see no reason why we can't keep postponing it indefinitely through climate geoengineering. Advances in minerals exploration and mining over the next several centuries means we really don't need to go through another ice age. Most of our building materials and other structural components will likely be some sort of carbon composite anyway. Face it. We own this place. It doesn't own us. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ray Taylor" <[email protected]> To: "geoengineering" <[email protected]> Sent: Monday, July 06, 2009 9:00 AM Subject: [geo] Geonurturing - Ray's first attempt at a classification > > Hi David, Hi all, > > I'd appreciate some feedback on this draft text, aimed primarily at > general readers but potentially also scientists or policymakers from > across disciplines: > > Suggestions for academic references would be particularly helpful. > > TITLE: > > "Geonurturing - a tentative definition and classification" > > ABSRACT: > > James Lovelock has talked about the earth having a fever. By analogy > with a sick patient, a classification of "geonurturing" is defined. > > ARTICLE: > > The term Geonurturing was first coined, to the best of my knowledge, > by David Schnare. My own working definition is "taking steps to > protect, restore and replenish a planet, its bio-geochemical and its > physical systems and to protect its biodiversity, including human > beings". (OK with you, David?) > > > THE BACKGROUND: > > I will assume that the climate situation is beyond critical, as > suggested by James Lovelock in this Guardian article: > > www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/2008/mar/01/scienceofclimatechange.climatechange > > Lovelock suggests that a rapid decrease in petrochemicals use, > especially diesel, could be dangerous because while carbon remains in > the atmosphere, particulate levels emitted alongside CO2 by diesel > engines may also decrease rapidly, reducing global dimming. Global > dimming is the effect of these particulates from diesel engines and > forest fires and general pollution. By reducing the amount of the > sun's light reaching the surface of the planet, these particles have > shielded us from the full force of greenhouse warming. A sudden > reduction in these particulates could lead to very rapid warming. He > also believes that many of the earth's biogeochemical systems are now > in positive feedback, meaning that it is too late to prevent rapid and > dangerous warming by emissions reductions alone. > > > THE ANALOGY - A CHILD WITH FEVER > > This definition of geonurturing assumes that the earth's bio- > geochemical systems are in positive feedback, and that we can usefully > draw an analogy with a human child who has a high and rising fever: > > A fever can be caused by different bacteria and viruses. The ideal > intervention is early killing of the bacteria / viruses by the child's > own immune system. If this is delayed for any reason, the patient's > fever rises. If the fever rises too high, the child can start to have > fits which can cause permanent brain damage. Treatment with > antibiotics at a late stage (i.e. treating the cause) may cause a > temporary acceleration in the fever as virus / bacteria / immune > particles are released into the bloodstream. For this reason, and in > order to prevent fits / brain damage, it makes sense to treat the > symptom ie. reduce the fever by other means than treating the cause. > This can be done with (eg) paracetamol. If fits and brain damage are > prevented in this way, it is termed secondary prevention. (Primary > prevention is preventing the infection in the first place. Secondary > prevention is essentially preventing new damage arising from the > original pathology.) > > So, like the child with fever: > > - the temperature of the planet is already rising > > - if we treat the cause too aggressively, we may accelerate the > temperature rise and cause abrupt climate change > > - if we do nothing, the temperature may rise to a level where there is > major permanent damage > > In terms of care/treatment/nurture: > > (1) there may be things we can do to gently bring down the temperature > > (2) we may be able to replenish some essential natural resources eg > water > > (3) we should treat the cause carefully > > (4) we need to stop doing the things that weakened the planet in the > first place and ensure balanced, sustainable living > > (5) we need to remember the illness and recovery is a part of life and > that both children and planets pass through different phases > > (6) while doing all this nurturing we shouldn't forget to prevent > external threats > > > > From the above we can derive a 6-part classification of geonurturing: > > > GEONURTURING (1) - PLANETARY FIRST AID AND SECONDARY PREVENTION > > Slow down and stop temperature increase by the most gentle means > possible eg: > > - increase albedo (reflectivity) of urban areas and roads > > - restore natural cloud-making forests and wetlands in the tropics > > - augment cloud cover over oceans (Salter / Latham proposal) > > - consider other options if needed (except sulphate to increase > dimming and other radical strategies) > > - urgent emissions reductions, including a separate agreement on > HFC23 > > - capture and use or capture and store the most potent greenhouse > gases > > > GEONURTURING (2) - PROTECT AND REPLENISH NATURAL RESOURCES > > Support those parts of the ecosystem that have a key role in > temperature and biogeochemical regulation: > > - stop tropical deforestation and draining of wetlands > > - restore degraded tropical forests, wetlands etc > > - in agriculture and forestry, imitate natural ecosystems > as far as possible (Agro-forestry, permaculture etc) > > - ensure that marine ecosystems with important roles > in climate regulation are not compromised by pollution > > > GEONURTURING (3) TREATING THE CAUSE(S): > > Reverse full range of underlying causes: > > - greenhouse gas emissions reductions > > - land use change with land-atmosphere impact > > - population growth > > - air capture of CO2 and steps to prevent and reverse ocean > acidification > > > GEONURTURING (4) - SHIFTING TO BALANCED, SUSTAINABLE LIVING > > In the longer term, approaches like Permaculture, localised food > production and low-carbon transport systems along with intelligent > technology choices will be needed to sustain a population of perhaps 7 > billion humans, and conscious strategies to gradually reduce > population to perhaps 2 billion would be helpful. > > > GEONURTURING (5) - LEARNIUNG TO ACCEPT CLIMATE CYCLES > > In the very long term, we will need to get used to the idea that the > earth passes through warm periods and periods of glaciation. Even in > the most severe ice ages, there is not complete ice cover - the > tropics remains suitable for human habitation. > > Two web pages explaining extremely low risk of whole earth glaciation: > > www.snowballearth.org/could.html > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_Earth > > While we might be able to prevent an ice age using geoengineering, > we'd be forgetting that advancing ice sheets perform valuable roles > such as restoring minerals to the landscape. This raises the prospect > that at some point in the future we may need to voluntarily reduce our > population and shift the human population entirely to the tropics. > > > GEONURTURING (6) - PREVENTING EXTERNAL THREATS > > Another much more sudden change in climate could be caused by a comet > impact or a super-volcano. We do not yet have public global > contingency plans to deal with these kinds of climate emergency. > > A really good immune system includes intelligent avoidance of hazards > and reduction of risk. > > > Ray Taylor > Land-Atmosphere Resilience Initiative > > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
