In project management that is called contingency planning. The key is to have a plan and to take the steps needed to put it in place when and if needed--- not put it in place.
_____ From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Peter Read Sent: Wednesday, August 19, 2009 8:09 AM To: [email protected] Cc: John Davies; [email protected]; Geoengineering; [email protected]; Veli Albert Kallio Subject: [geo] Re: Meeting with Clinton The essence of risk management is to prerpare for the worst until it has been proved it can't happen. Blanchon et al 2009 Nature 458 881-884 provide evidence from coral reef back-stepping of rapid sea level rise at the close of the last interglacial highstand Hearty et al 2007 Quartenary Sci rev 26 2090 report sea level rises of several meters per century There are reports of increasingly frequent ice-quakes on Greenland We should not wait for structural engineers to prove that sudden disintegration is possible. On the contrary we should get ahead with precautionary measures and then leave off if and when structural engineers prove it's impossible. Especially as such measures will likely be a lot cheaper than emissions reductions a la Kyoto Protocol and help reduce the impact of climate change even if it proves to be only gradual after all. Peter ----- Original Message ----- From: Alvia Gaskill <mailto:[email protected]> To: [email protected] ; Veli <mailto:[email protected]> Albert Kallio Cc: John Davies <mailto:[email protected]> ; [email protected] ; Geoengineering <mailto:[email protected]> Sent: Wednesday, August 19, 2009 11:14 PM Subject: [geo] Re: Meeting with Clinton I'm still not sure I understand what you guys are talking about with regard to sudden catastrophic disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet. About 5 years ago, I raised the same possibility, but have yet to see any analyses that would support large slides of ice into the ocean. As Greenland consists of three separate islands covered with ice, at some point, if enough of the ice sheet melted, the remaining ice would become unstable and fall into the ocean, but that would be a long way off. I do believe, however, that a survey of the structural stablility of both the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice sheets is merited. I am not aware of this having been done and simply having climatologists say large pieces won't break off isn't good enough as they continue to be surprised by ice shelf collapses and sea ice disappearance. In other words, they don't seem to be all that good at predicting the future. We have a shortage of a lot of things in this world, among them civility and fresh drinking water, but one thing not in short supply is structural engineers. I want to hear what they have to say about the Greenland Ice Sheet. I am not, however, convinced that an imminent catastrophe is upon us. The basis for your concern appears to be folklore of the Inuits living along Hudson Bay around 12,400 years ago whose tales tell of their villages being swamped by a sudden rise in the water level and that the Younger Dryas period immediately followed. Is that correct? Your conclusion was then that the sea level rise was due to a sudden release of ice by the Greenland Ice Sheet. However, the most likely explanation for the Younger Dryas (a period of abrupt climate change in which ice age like conditions returned for around 1000 years to the N. Hemisphere and so named after an Arctic wildflower that was prevalent at the time) is the discharge of fresh water into the N. Atlantic from a large glacial lake in southern Canada and northern Minnesota, Lake Agassiz. This lake was larger than all of the present Great Lakes combined and was closed on the southern end by an ice dam blocking discharge into the Mississippi River and also on the northern end by another ice dam, preventing emptying into Hudson Bay. The fresh water released entered the N. Atlantic and disrupted the northern end of the Gulf Stream, hence the colder weather that followed. This is loosely what the movie the Day After Tomorrow is based on, although that is a bad sci fi movie with little scientific basis behind it. The events portrayed in the film could never happen as they violate laws of physics and thermodynamics. Various theories have been advanced for the collapse of the ice dam, but the most likely one now seems to be a comet strike in eastern Canada that also caused massive wildfires, killing off most of the large mammals in N. America along with the Clovis people of New Mexico. Soot and quartz particles found at the proposed impact site seem to confirm an extraterrestrial source of the event. There is no evidence that Greenland was affected by the comet strike. The explanation for the much shorter cooling period of around 8000 years ago also seems to be related to a discharge from Lake Agassiz, although that one is also still debated. I am interested in your comment about someone studying ways to stabilize the Greenland Ice sheet and would like to hear more about it. Previously, we have discussed such ideas as filling in Moulins with some kind of straw, with ice and of course there was the Discovery Project Earth episode about placing insulating foam sheets around melt lakes. The Royal Society report is not going to endorse the immediate use of geoengineering. Most of these "evaluation type studies" have either rejected research altogether (the DEFRA paper) or called for some kind of long drawn out research program (Koonin workshop) in which the authors are never able or willing to pull the trigger and say what should be done and when. ----- Original Message ----- From: John <mailto:[email protected]> Nissen To: Veli Albert Kallio <mailto:[email protected]> Cc: John Davies <mailto:[email protected]> ; [email protected] ; Geoengineering <mailto:[email protected]> Sent: Wednesday, August 19, 2009 5:43 AM Subject: [geo] Re: Meeting with Clinton Hi Albert, Thanks for calling last night. As I said, this is an opportunity to get three vital points across to Bill Clinton for your meeting in September: * the situation is far more serious and urgent than any scientist dares to admit [1], and warrants emergency action [2]; * the action must include geoengineering, because emissions reduction will be too slow to have an effect; * geoengineering must be both SRM for cooling and carbon air capture for reducing acidification. As regards the situation, there is both the risk of sea level rise from Greenland (with tsunami if there's a containment failure) and the risk of massive methane release (see John Davies' email yesterday) if the Arctic sea ice disappears in summer. The temperature forcing (from positive feedback) is building up much faster than expected or forecast by IPCC models. The ocean acidification, loss of coral reefs, reduction of rainforest and glacier decline (e.g in Himalayas) are also critical problems requiring action, starting now. The consensus of scientists is concentrating on emissions reduction, but it's clear, from the Climate Congress in March, that this alone is not going to be enough to reduce the risk of catastrophic warming [3] to an acceptable level. The risk could already be > 50:50, without geoengineering. (Every year that we delay increases this risk - politicians should note.) For saving the Arctic sea ice we need SRM - for which there are two main candidates: stratospheric aerosols and marine cloud brightening. (A report from the Royal Society is due 1st September, so you can mention that.) The risks of such geoengineering have to be balanced against the risk of not geoengineering - i.e. catastrophe for everybody! If you can get Clinton to appreciate these central points, then you will have done a service for the world! Try and explain slowly, simply and clearly, so he can really take in the enormity of what you are saying. Be careful not to drown him with science. And be careful not to distract him with thoughts which are not central to these three points about where we are now, why we have to change course and what we have to do most urgently. It would be really helpful to have a draft of a paper that you will present to Clinton, summarising your arguments and including these points. BTW, please email me details about this amazing bloke you've discovered, who has studied the possibility of containment failure and has considered geoengineering. I couldn't find anything on Google to track him down. Can you also remind me of the other people you have asked? Cheers, John P.S. I'll try to see the film! I wish that being plunged into an ice age were a significant possibility, as this would save us from becoming toast. [1] Dares to admit, or is able to face. People stop admitting the existence of danger when it gets too great - e.g. in final stages of cancer or when living just below a dam. And what do you tell your children - that they could be doomed? [2] Manhattan Project is good example of what can be done in emergency when facing an enemy. We need to treat global warming as an enemy, regardless of whether it is anthropogenic or not, and so regardless of responsibility. [3] Global warming likely to provoke global conflict and risk nuclear war, because of extreme effects on food scarcity, water shortages, and mass migration. --- Veli Albert Kallio wrote: If you have not seen the film A Day After Tomorrow, please hire or buy a copy of it. The only thing you substitute in the film is that the sea level surge and subsequent massive cooling is a result of global warming causing the footing of the ice sheet getting damange due to melt water lubrication within and under the ice. Once ice slides and breaks into sea, a sudden climatic cooling results as the disintergrating ice sheet rapidly melts into warm sea, making it as cold as your coca-cola in summer. I'll take the points and trying to accommodate people as much as I can as I have a good team here and in the States moving this thing and the Danish, will eventually turn around too if things go to the direction the First Nations think the events went when ice age ended. Kr, Albert > Date: Tue, 18 Aug 2009 12:53:26 +0100 > From: [email protected] > To: [email protected] > CC: [email protected]; [email protected] > Subject: Meeting with Clinton > > > Hi Albert, > > I'm just back from holiday, and have been talking to John Davies. It is > clear than the central topic for discussion is the possibility of > massive ice slide in past and future, to create sea level rise (but also > tsunami) and exacerbate global warming. > > So I urge that the following be included on agenda for Clinton, arising > directly from your central topic: > > 1. No tsunami warning system for Greenland and neighbours, let alone > other N Atlantic nations. > 2. Past slides were due to global warming and/or volcanic action. > Future slides can be expected due to global warming. > 3. Global warming is amplified at poles - at least doubling the > temperature rise both in the Arctic and around the Antarctic (affecting > WAIS). > 4. How does one stop, delay, or reduce risk of future slide? For > Arctic, must save the Arctic sea ice - and similarly for the Antarctic. > 5. For saving Arctic sea ice, physical measures are being considered > (such as river diversion) - but research is needed and there is no > research funding. > 6. CO2 emissions reduction, however drastic and global, will take > decades before warming is halted, let alone reversed. > 7. Positive feedback building up now - has to be countered. > 8. Emissions of carbon black (fine soot particles) must be reduced - > which will have rapid effect. > 9. SRM Geoengineering with sulphur aerosols must be trialled. > 10. Cooling of water entering Arctic ocean, by marine cloud brightening > over Gulf Stream, must be attempted. > 11. Research needed for cooling the WAIS, and preventing ice shelf loss. > 12. Research needed on risks from volcanic action under WAIS. > > Certainly we should not make global warming worse by removing reflecting > aerosols from troposphere without at least countering that effect using > other reflecting aerosols - esp sulphur aerosols in stratosphere. > > Lunch calls, > > Cheers, > > John > _____ Windows Live Messenger: Thanks for 10 great years-enjoy free winks and emoticons. Get Them Now <http://clk.atdmt.com/UKM/go/157562755/direct/01/> _____ No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 8.5.392 / Virus Database: 270.13.59/2310 - Release Date: 08/17/09 18:04:00 --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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