I've avoided the rehash of more widely available Cophenhagen fodder,
but these updates from the ICC/IISD mailing list have been good....
this one is from just several hours ago. There had been a rumor that
Obama would not come tomorrow, which would appear from the below to
now not be the case.... clearly this will go into saturday if not
sunday (which would be a first). Also attached is a UK guardian
piece at the bottom.
Status Report Thursday 6am ET
I was fortunate to be able to attend a briefing from one of the chief
U.S. negotiators, Jonathan Pershing. He is on top of all of the
extraordinarily detailed and nuanced aspects of the various drafts of
language flying around, and the progress of all the side meetings
going on. He advised the group to listen closely to the prepared
statements of the heads of states that started at 4am (ET) and that
will run until after 6pm (ET) for important clues to where the parties
are on the issues. Several have plainly said: “Let’s seal the deal”
here and now. The leaders are united on limiting temperature rise to
2 degree Celsius. The big questions that remain are specific country
targets, transparency and verification of emissions reductions, and
the amount of aid to the developing countries. Other issues include
the form of agreement, and how the Kyoto Protocol will be resolved.
The situation remains very fluid, with lots of draft documents, all
with blanks and brackets. The US won’t sign a rehash of Kyoto, but we
are working hard for a good political deal. Jonathan noted that
separate agreements were recently signed with both India and China,
and they provide information on a framework of a deal that we could
accept. We’re still looking for movement from some of the key
countries, but we’re hopeful. Everyone wants an outcome from these
talks, especially the Danes, who have risked a lot of political
capital to invite all the world leaders here.
In advance of President Obama’s arrival tomorrow, Secretary of State
Hillary Rodham Clinton landed at 3am this morning. She met with
Senator John Kerry before he returned to Washington. Secretary
Clinton will be meeting today with several key countries, including
China, in side meetings. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is here,
and several other Members of Congress arrived at 10am this morning
local time, including Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma, who will be in
the Bella Center today. Jonathan hinted that Obama’s speech on Friday
would very interesting, and strongly articulate America’s position.
While there will be no treaty to come out of these talks (that will
wait until mid to late 2010) everyone is still optimistic that a
strong political agreement will.
Leo Pierre Roy, 17 December 2009
Another one...
COP15 has now been closed to all but a very few observers. Yesterday,
high level ministers began to arrive and Connie Hedegaard, the
President of COP15, stepped down to allow the Danish Prime Minister to
steer negotiations as the conference officially ends tomorrow.
Earlier in the week, the G77 and China walked out of negotiations more
than once over issues related to finance and the extension of the
Kyoto Protocol. Yet in the last 24 hours, there has been progress on a
climate finance package with wide agreement on a ‘kick start fund’
worth $10 billion annually provided by developed countries during the
period from 2010-2012. A final agreement on the total amount to be
provided is expected by the end of this week by most negotiators.
In terms of markets and progress on negotiations related to CDM reform
and REDD, there are draft texts that are on the table that negotiators
are reviewing but there is a likelihood that they might not be agreed
to before COP15 officially ends.
However, we did learn that the UN contact group responsible for CDM
reform has sent forward texts to negotiators albeit a lot of details
need to be worked out. The text included language on E+/E-, inclusion
of CCS as a project type, new standards on baseline scenarios, and to
utilize interest collected on the CDM trust fund and other financial
resources to cover the costs of the PDD, validation and verification
for projects in countries that have fewer than 10 registered CDM
projects up to date.
Also in the text on CDM reform is a proposal for the CDM Executive
Board to implement an appeals process after rulings are made. All of
this text can be deleted or put on hold however should negotiators not
come to an agreement in the next 24 hours.
See below another update:
An update on the CMP and COP Contact Group meetings this afternoon:
The COP met and established a Contact Group to continue negotiations
on key issues. Connie Hedegaard will chair the COP Contact Group, and
the LCA text forwarded by the AWG-LCA to the COP will be the basis
for further negotiations. The COP Contact Group agreed to establish
the following Drafting Groups to carry out negotiations in smaller
forums:
Shared Vision (L.7/Rev. 1 preambular text and para's 1 and 6-8)
Financial Resources (L. 2/Rev. 1)
Enhanced Mitigation (L.7/Rev. 1 para's 12-29, except para 23)
REDD+ (L.6)
Various Approaches, including market-based approaches (L.8/Rev. 1)
Adaptation (L.1)
Technollogy Transfer (L.3)
Capacity Building
Bunker Fuels
Sectoral apporaches on agriculture
The Drafting Groups must complete their work by the end of the
afternoon on cleaning up technical matters in the various texts, at
which time key political issues will be sent to the Ministers for
political discussions. The developing countries asked for flexibility
in the deadlines of the Drafting Groups given the time lost
yesterday. They also aksed for assurances that no outside process (an
apparent reference to US-China discussions taking place) would affect
the outcome of these negotiations. The Chair indicated that the
outcome of this process would be an overall document (L.7) and
separate decision texts (Adds. 1-9).
The CMP also met and established a Contact Group to continue
negotiations on key issues. Connie Hedegaard will chair the CMP
Contact Group, and the text forwarded by the AWG-KP to the CMP will
be the basis for further negotiations. The CM Contact Group agreed to
establish the following Drafting Groups to carry out negotiations in
smaller forums:
*
Amendments to the Kyoto Protocol
*
LULUCF
*
Emissions trading and market mechanisms
*
Methodological issues
*
Potential consequences
The Drafting Groups are supposed to meet consecutively, starting with
the so-called "numbers group." The CMP President also indicated that
the outcome of the overall process would be two texts -- one on LCA
and one on KP -- which would be put forward to the heads of state.
Developing countries also aksed for assurances that no outside text
(referring to the so-called "Danish text") would be introduced into
the process, which the CMP President confirmed.
Sudan (Bernarditas Muller) wanted to clarify that everything that will
come from the negotiating groups will then be reflected in the core
document. She also wanted Connie (Hedegaard) to reconfirm that no
other processes outside of this legitimate negotiating process would
in any way change or define the work that is going to come out of this
negotiating process
There was a great deal of discussion on bunker fuel- where it will be
discussed and on the basis of what draft. There was also a lot of
discussion on the separation of a decision on capacity building for
developed countries and one for economies in transitions.
I also found this UK Guardian piece very good:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/17/copenhagen-hillary-clinton-emissions-monitoring
Clinton arrives in Copenhagen to stake US claim in deal of the century
America's unifying influence is not without strings as monitoring cuts
becomes fresh sticking point with China
COP15 US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton
US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton gives a press conference
at the Bella Centre. Photograph: Olivier Morin/AFP/Getty Images
With Hillary Clinton's sudden appearance at the Copenhagen summit at
its moment of crisis – and the prospect of billions in cash – America
today lays claim to the role of lead broker in what could be the deal
of the century.
Clinton's intervention, on a day that began with the Danish hosts of
the talks saying they had given up hope of a deal, allows the US to
claim a role in helping to unite countries that were turning on each
other.
"It is no secret that we have lost time," she told a press conference.
"In the time we have left here it can no longer be about us versus
them, this group of nations pitted against that group of nations."
But Clinton said America would sign on to a proposal – originally
offered by Gordon Brown several months ago – for industrialised
countries to provide $100bn a year from 2020 to help developing
countries cope with climate change.
"The US is prepared to work with other countries to jointly mobilise
$100bn a year by 2020," Clinton told a press conference on a day that
began with reports that the summit's Danish hosts had given up hope of
reach a deal.
But she said the funds would only flow if there was a deal – and that
there would only be a deal if it met certain American conditions.
Those conditions go to one of the most contentious issues of these
negotiations: America's demand that China and other rapidly emerging
countries provide documentation of its efforts to cut emissions.
Clinton's pointed reference to the need for transparency escalated an
American attempt to put China on the spot over its resistance to
submitting its carbon emission cuts to a monitoring regime.
Indonesia's president today, in the country's speech to the summit,
indicated he would be open to such a regime. India and other rapidly
emerging economies also said they would offer data on their efforts to
curb carbon to a monitoring system, leaving China somewhat isolated.
Clinton also argued the price was worth it. "$100 billion dollars a
year is a lot of money. That is a commitment that is very real and
will have tangible effects," she said.
However, she was careful not to commit America to a specific share of
the $100bn fund, and she made it clear that much of the financing
would have to come from private, rather than government sources.
She said there would be a significant focus on preventing
deforestation — which has domestic political support in America — as
well as aid to cushion the poorest countries from the ravages of
climate change. The fund will also help countries acquire new clean
energy technology.
Clinton's commitment to a post-2020 climate fund arrived as somewhat
of a surprise.
Analysts had downplayed prospects of getting firm support for
post-2020 climate finance. The European Union has proposed a fund of
€110bn a year from 2020 — but has yet to make an official offer.
American officials had indicated before the Copenhagen summit that
Barack Obama was not in a position to make a forward-looking
commitment on finance for fear of triggering a backlash from Congress.
However, there was still speculation that Obama was keeping an offer
on finance in reserve for his arrival in Copenhagen tomorrow morning.
Apparently, the last resort option arrived sooner than anticipated.
"We have now reached a critical juncture at these negotiations,"
Clinton told a press conference. "I understand the talks have been
difficult."
British officials who travelled to Copenhagen with Gordon Brown were
surprised by the timing of the announcement. The prime minister's
official spokesman had not expected what they described as "the first
public confirmation" of a shift in the US position but said: "Obama
said he wanted to be as helpful as he could but was concerned about
public opinion at home." Another official said: "This is a very
serious move by the Americans. We were waiting for it."
They said that one of the prime minister's chief negotiators, Jon
Cunliffe, had been on the phone with his American "opposite number"
over night.
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