Thanks, Emily, for finding this FoE report The report (1) looks at the emissions from each country now, and projections for 2020 and 2050. I did the same,from a different perspective, for my document "Why Copenhagen Failed" (2) so I have checked their calculations and they are correct.
These are the reductions that would be required from the largest eight emitters by 2020 in order to keep within the 2 degree C rise;(in alphabetical order) Canada 80% reduction by 2020 China 20% reduction by 2020 Germany 63% reduction by 2020 India 63% increase by 2020 Japan 65% reduction by 2020 Russia 80% reduction by 2020 UK 57%reduction by 2020 USA 80% reduction by 2020 Notes -These figures contain no fudges like "emissions intensity" or basing reductions on 1990. Reductions are from now -and real. -The 20% reduction for China is just as impossible as the 80% for the USA. China expects 300 million people to move from subsistence agriculture to the towns by 2030 and predicted 100% increase. -The increase allowed to India is due to the very low per capita emission now but is still far less than their post Copenhagen prediction of 100% increase.(3) The obvious impossibility of achieving these reductions is the central argument for geoengineering research -now. John Gorman (1)http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Environment/documents/2010/12/15/CarbonBudgetsReportdec14final.pdf (2)http://www.naturaljointmobility.info/WhyCopenhagenFailed.htm (3)Last page of letter to Chris Huhne UK Minister for Energy at http://www.naturaljointmobility.info/letters.htm ----- Original Message ----- From: "Emily" <[email protected]> To: "geo-engineering grp" <[email protected]> Sent: Wednesday, December 15, 2010 4:37 PM Subject: [geo] geo eng and new Friends of the Earth EWNI report urges very deep and rapid emission cuts Hi, please read the last sentence in particular: FoE now join WWF in accepting the possible need for geo-engineering. I agree with this analysis. I am trying to track down a link tot he report - if you have one, please circulate. manyt hanks and Best wishes, Emily. RECKLESS GAMBLERS key conclusions.. • Recent climate science and risk analysis show that there is now a very small remaining safe level of greenhouse gas emissions compatible with preventing dangerous climate change. • A 2 degrees temperature rise can no longer be considered “safe”; even 1.5 degrees carries with it major risks. • Even a Global Carbon Budget of 1100 Gigatonnes of CO 2 equivalent from now to 2050, which would give a 75% chance of exceeding 1.5 degrees, and a 30% chance of exceeding 2 degrees, would require unprecedented emissions reductions which go far beyond those currently contemplated by politicians. Reducing risks further would require even tougher action. • If dangerous climate change is to be averted it will require immediate and significant changes to how we fuel our economies in virtually all countries, it will require systemic action across all sectors of the economies of all countries. • As leaders of countries with large historical and current emissions, politicians in developed countries must shoulder the blame for increasing the risk of dangerous climate change. They will need to make deep emissions reductions and provide hundreds of billions of dollars for developing countries to grow without carbon-intensive energy. • Living within the small remaining global carbon budget, if shared out on an equal per capita basis between 2010 and 2050, would require reductions in emissions in developed countries of around 8-15 per cent per annum, immediate emissions reductions in some developing countries, an early peak and decline in emissions in others, and some countries would be able to continue to increase emissions from their very low baseline. These are just illustrative figures, not prescriptions but if one group of countries emits more than these amounts, it would require corresponding reductions in what other countries emit and the scope for this is now very limited. Achieving cuts in developing countries will require substantial financial and technology transfers from developed countries. • Urgent research and debate needs to be carried out - alongside urgent action to reduce emissions - to identify exactly how to share out the remaining global carbon budget and whether these reductions are technically possible and, if not, whether approaches using negative emissions or even geo-engineering are possible or acceptable. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.
