Unfortunately, my view is that the credibility of IPCC and COP processes lost completely when Copenhagen COP15 failed and the nations are gearing on retributative operations when the Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Cover is lost, methane seeps out and the Amazon dries up. The past Cold War operations will be but a faint reflection of the rage of the nations. Stubborn and obstructive political leaders like Muammar Gaddafic, the US Republicans and the US corporate leaders, i.e. at Exxon etc fossi fuel lobbyists can never be addressed by the US government and therefore the necessary actions to deal with them in covert operations becomes necessary when we loose the ice cap, permafrost and the Amazon as the western governements system will not address the issues and provide retribution.
UN Security Council is now the only venue to solve these things. Albert > Date: Sat, 9 Apr 2011 09:11:18 +0100 > From: [email protected] > To: [email protected] > CC: [email protected]; [email protected]; > [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] > Subject: Re: Cooling trend in Spencer's latest figures > > Dear John, Thank you for those very interesting links. I remember when the > 2007 retreat occurred, that Wieslaw Maslowski, a very well respected sea > ice modeller at Naval Postgraduate School, came up with the prediction that > summer ice would be gone by 2015. He was excoriated, accused of some > simple-minded linear extrapolation, and the "official" prediction, which > one was allowed to cite in research proposals, became one by Wang and > Overland (2009) who adapted the IPCC models (even though they didnt work) > to predict 2037-45 as the disappearance date. That's a nice safe time away > from now. Now New Scentist is showing the rapid rate of volume loss, which > was already known about, and which predicts a disappearance date of... > 2015! > > I hope you enjoyed EGU and got a good audience for your talk with plenty of > useful feedback. > > Best wishes > Peter > > On Apr 8 2011, John Nissen wrote: > > > > >Hi Albert, > > > >You probably made a better forecast than anybody else about the time of > >the sea ice summer disappearance. If you look at the sea ice volume > >trend [1] you'll see a graph with anomaly growing past "-10" on the > >scale. But if you work out the figures, the 1979 start at "+5" > >represents the 20.77 thousand km-3; and the "-10" represents 5.77 > >thousand km-3 of sea ice left. Just below the bottom of the graph is > >"-15", which represents practically no sea ice left at all. An > >extrapolation of the trend curve to the "-15" line suggests that _the > >sea ice will be gone by 2015_, even if there is a recovery in volume > >this year (which seems unlikely). > > > >Couple that with the danger from methane, especially from the East > >Siberian Arctic Shelf [2], and we have a global catastrophe staring us > >in the face. > > > >Now, does anybody seriously think we should wait any longer to try > >cooling the Arctic by geoengineering? > > > >One form of geoengineering which might help would seem to be the > >diversion of Siberian rivers away from the Arctic ocean, as proposed by > >yourself, Victor Dukhovny and others [3]. I'd appreciate Victor's > >comments on methane implications of such action, as suggested in [2]. > >But there could be a negative impact, if the effect of removing fresh > >water inhibits the formation of sea ice. There was one talk at EGU > >suggesting that the flooding from Lake Agassiz northwestwards into the > >Arctic ocean actually allowed sea ice to reform, which caused the start > >of the Younger Dryas cool period. > > > >Another idea, suggested to me at the EGU meeting this week, is to drain > >the pools in areas of Arctic tundra. Collectively these pools contain > >vast quantities of organic material liable to produce methane as ice > >cover disappears. Once drained these pockets can become productive > >(typically of stagnum moss) and can drawdown CO2 to become an effective > >carbon sink for the planet. > > > >Delaying geoengineering is like waiting for your appendix to burst > >before going to hospital. I nearly died from a burst appendix while on > >holiday in Norway, where they don't allow you into hospital without a > >doctor's referral, except for heart attacks! Ouch! > > > >Cheers, > > > >John > > > >[1] http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/archive/2775/27751301.jpg > > > > [2] > > http://symposium.serdp-estcp.org/content/download/8914/107496/version/1/file/1A_Shakhova_Final.pdf > > > >Thanks to Andrew Lockley for this reference. > > > > [3] > > http://groups.google.com/group/climateintervention/browse_thread/thread/af331f30cdc2272f > > > > > >--- > > > >On 08/04/2011 17:59, Veli Albert Kallio wrote: > >> */Hi Alastair,/* > >> > >> [snip] > >> Back in 2005 I forecasted that the Arctic Ocean would become ice free > >> around the time the decade changes. Back in 1980's I was in school and > >> told that the anthropogenic greenhouse gas load (carbon dioxide) would > >> start melting the Arctic Ocean sea ice cover in summers sometime > >> around the year 3500. In February 2007 the Arctic Council's new Arctic > >> Impact Report forecasted the melt away of the Arctic Ocean sea ice > >> occurring in summers around year 2150. In no case, it was said, the > >> Arctic Ocean would see its ice melting away earlier than summers > >> between year 2070 and 2100. At World Water Week 2006 I repeated my > >> forecast that 2010's would see ice-free Arctic Ocean. Yet, in May 2007 > >> these Arctic Council figures of year 2150 were still repeated. But in > >> August 2007 60% of the Arctic Ocean melted away. So, by nature I am > >> not trusting these climate models that always give so much time to > >> allow us sort out ourselves. > >> > >> [snip] > >[snip] > >> /Kind regards,/ > >> > >> *Albert* > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.
