Hi Albert,
You probably made a better forecast than anybody else about the time of
the sea ice summer disappearance. If you look at the sea ice volume
trend [1] you'll see a graph with anomaly growing past "-10" on the
scale. But if you work out the figures, the 1979 start at "+5"
represents the 20.77 thousand km-3; and the "-10" represents 5.77
thousand km-3 of sea ice left. Just below the bottom of the graph is
"-15", which represents practically no sea ice left at all. An
extrapolation of the trend curve to the "-15" line suggests that _the
sea ice will be gone by 2015_, even if there is a recovery in volume
this year (which seems unlikely).
Couple that with the danger from methane, especially from the East
Siberian Arctic Shelf [2], and we have a global catastrophe staring us
in the face.
Now, does anybody seriously think we should wait any longer to try
cooling the Arctic by geoengineering?
One form of geoengineering which might help would seem to be the
diversion of Siberian rivers away from the Arctic ocean, as proposed by
yourself, Victor Dukhovny and others [3]. I'd appreciate Victor's
comments on methane implications of such action, as suggested in [2].
But there could be a negative impact, if the effect of removing fresh
water inhibits the formation of sea ice. There was one talk at EGU
suggesting that the flooding from Lake Agassiz northwestwards into the
Arctic ocean actually allowed sea ice to reform, which caused the start
of the Younger Dryas cool period.
Another idea, suggested to me at the EGU meeting this week, is to drain
the pools in areas of Arctic tundra. Collectively these pools contain
vast quantities of organic material liable to produce methane as ice
cover disappears. Once drained these pockets can become productive
(typically of stagnum moss) and can drawdown CO2 to become an effective
carbon sink for the planet.
Delaying geoengineering is like waiting for your appendix to burst
before going to hospital. I nearly died from a burst appendix while on
holiday in Norway, where they don't allow you into hospital without a
doctor's referral, except for heart attacks! Ouch!
Cheers,
John
[1] http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/archive/2775/27751301.jpg
[2]
http://symposium.serdp-estcp.org/content/download/8914/107496/version/1/file/1A_Shakhova_Final.pdf
Thanks to Andrew Lockley for this reference.
[3]
http://groups.google.com/group/climateintervention/browse_thread/thread/af331f30cdc2272f
---
On 08/04/2011 17:59, Veli Albert Kallio wrote:
*/Hi Alastair,/*
[snip]
Back in 2005 I forecasted that the Arctic Ocean would become ice free
around the time the decade changes. Back in 1980's I was in school and
told that the anthropogenic greenhouse gas load (carbon dioxide) would
start melting the Arctic Ocean sea ice cover in summers sometime
around the year 3500. In February 2007 the Arctic Council's new Arctic
Impact Report forecasted the melt away of the Arctic Ocean sea ice
occurring in summers around year 2150. In no case, it was said, the
Arctic Ocean would see its ice melting away earlier than summers
between year 2070 and 2100. At World Water Week 2006 I repeated my
forecast that 2010's would see ice-free Arctic Ocean. Yet, in May 2007
these Arctic Council figures of year 2150 were still repeated. But in
August 2007 60% of the Arctic Ocean melted away. So, by nature I am
not trusting these climate models that always give so much time to
allow us sort out ourselves.
[snip]
[snip]
/Kind regards,/
*Albert*
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
"geoengineering" group.
To post to this group, send email to [email protected].
To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
[email protected].
For more options, visit this group at
http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.
