Andrew:

 

There are many unknowns due to the infantile state of the climate science.
Whether it is 5-10 years or 25 before warming begins to introduce additional
dangers, some not yet anticipated, there is no doubt it will. No doubt you
heard of Reilly's addendum to Murphy's Law. Reilly was a graduate student of
Prof. Murphy. His robust hypothesis  was that Murphy was an optimist.

 

I would bet on upper atmosphere SO2 additions for cooling, since for sure it
works and is relatively easy to implement,  and pray there are no
unmanageable consequences.

 

-gene

 

 

 

From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Andrew Lockley
Sent: Sunday, April 10, 2011 9:54 AM
To: geoengineering
Subject: [geo] Can SRM save our Bacon?

 

Hi 

I wonder if anyone can shed light on the potential of geoengineering in a
high GHG atmosphere ? 

If we have massive methane excursions from the arctic, will we be able to
create a safe climate? The paleoclimatic record shows dramatic cooling
through volcanism, but that wasn't in a high GHG world .

If there's a whole load of methane around, there will be a massive polar
amplification.  This reduces the ocean over turning circulation , and
potentially lead to an anoxic event, and possibly further methanogenesis. 

I am not sure that, even with a maximal SRM effort, we can avoid the climate
transitioning into a state in  which society  is unsustainable  due to an
anoxic event.

If this is the case, we potentially have a very brief window in which to
geoengineer, perhaps only five or ten years 

I'd value comments on this.

Thanks 

A

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