Hi all,
John Davies has asked me to copy this on to you.
BTW, he doesn't mention the sea ice _volume_, which continues on a
downward trend, see PIOMAS model [1].
Cheers,
John
[1]
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: *John Davies* <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>>
Date: Fri, Mar 11, 2011 at 1:02 PM
Subject: ARCTIC SEA ICE PERIL
To: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
Dear Rt. Hon. Chris Huhne, Sec. of State Environment,
There is a serious danger that the sea ice area
might be much lower than ever before at the end of summer 2011. The
NSIDC website shows that the sea ice at the end of summer 2010 was
significantly younger than ever before, hence probably thinner and the
area was also very low. The volume of sea ice was probably lower than
ever before. On this matter see also the website of Cryosphere Today.
The winter of 2010 - 2011 was warm in the arctic.
The arctic sea ice area at the end of summer has been declining in
recent years and for the reasons mentioned above my view is that there
is a 40% chance that the arctic sea ice area will be significantly lower
than ever before at the end of summer 2011. There is a 60% chance that
the sea ice will not be significantly less than ever before.
The Hadley Centre think that the sea ice will not melt down completely
for 30 years or so but the view of the signatories of the letter below,
of which I am one, is that if there is a significantly greater loss of
sea ice area in summer 2011 then the sea ice will melt away in the next
year or two at the end of summer with the consequences described in the
letter below which was published in the |Independent on 12 th Feb. 2011.
My personal view is that because of the situation described above if
the sea ice does not contract significantly in area at the end of summer
2011 it will probably not do so for several years at least..
I would ask your Department to evaluate what is likely to happen to
arctic sea ice at the end of summer 2011 with the utmost urgency. The
importance of this can be gauged from the contents of the enclosed
letter, below. Please can you evaluate what is likely to happen and send
a reply please.
I would be delighted to assist in this matter and can be contacted on
phone 020 7837 9025 or on this 'E' mail address.
Yours Sincerely
John B Davies
NEW PERIL IN THE ARCTIC JOHN B DAVIES
Dear Editor,
The area of arctic sea ice in late summer declined
substantially in the decade until 2007 and has been stable since then.
However in 2010 the area of sea ice which was more than two years old,
and was therefore thin ice was substantially less than ever before.
A reasonable judgment is that there is a 40% chance that the sea ice
area will decline significantly to less than 2.5 million square
kilometres in 2011 and a 1 in 3 chance the area will fall to less than 2
million square kilometres as measured by the Cryosphere Today. The
minimum ice area in 2010 was 3 million square kilometres using
Cryosphere Today figures.
Since ice reflects sunlight whilst water absorbs sun light should the
ice area decline then the arctic will warm in late summer. This may well
warm the Tundra which will defrost faster than at present. The result
will be that the Greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and Methane will be
released into the atmosphere leading to further warming and a runaway
greenhouse event and the collapse of civilization.
We believe that should there be a substantial decline in sea ice area
then by marshalling all the resources of humanity and cutting greenhouse
gas emissions substantially and using geo- engineering then the global
climate and civilization can be saved. We need to be ready to start in
autumn 2011 if the situation goes badly in late summer 2011.
Yours Sincerely,
Signatures
1 Stephen Salter, Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design,
University of Edinburgh, [email protected]
2 Albert Kallio [email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>
3 John Davies [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
4 John Nissen [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
5 Nicola Deakin [email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>
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