John Davies' Letter was initially published at: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/letters/letters-arctic-sea-ice-2212525.html
To give such a call for action a more global reach, and more publicity, I recommend it to be published CC, while welcoming further signatories. A single paragraph probably works best, e.g.: Call for action As a result of emissions of pollutants around the world, massive amounts of greenhouse gases are threatening to be released in the Arctic. This calls for action. In addition to long-term measures to mitigate climate change and remove pollutants from oceans and atmosphere, geoengineering in the Arctic should now be included in our efforts to avoid catastrophe. Undersigned: Sam Carana, editor of Geo-engineering.blogspot.com Comments and further signatories are welcome. CC, http://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2011/04/call-for-action.html On Tue, Apr 19, 2011 at 4:52 AM, John Nissen <[email protected]> wrote: > > Hi all, > > John Davies has asked me to copy this on to you. > > BTW, he doesn't mention the sea ice volume, which continues on a downward > trend, see PIOMAS model [1]. > > Cheers, > > John > > [1] > http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/ > > > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- > From: John Davies <[email protected]> > Date: Fri, Mar 11, 2011 at 1:02 PM > Subject: ARCTIC SEA ICE PERIL > To: [email protected] > > > Dear Rt. Hon. Chris Huhne, Sec. of State Environment, > There is a serious danger that the sea ice area might > be much lower than ever before at the end of summer 2011. The NSIDC website > shows that the sea ice at the end of summer 2010 was significantly younger > than ever before, hence probably thinner and the area was also very low. The > volume of sea ice was probably lower than ever before. On this matter see > also the website of Cryosphere Today. > > The winter of 2010 - 2011 was warm in the arctic. > > The arctic sea ice area at the end of summer has been declining in recent > years and for the reasons mentioned above my view is that there is a 40% > chance that the arctic sea ice area will be significantly lower than ever > before at the end of summer 2011. There is a 60% chance that the sea ice > will not be significantly less than ever before. > > The Hadley Centre think that the sea ice will not melt down completely for > 30 years or so but the view of the signatories of the letter below, of which > I am one, is that if there is a significantly greater loss of sea ice area > in summer 2011 then the sea ice will melt away in the next year or two at > the end of summer with the consequences described in the letter below which > was published in the |Independent on 12 th Feb. 2011. My personal view is > that because of the situation described above if the sea ice does not > contract significantly in area at the end of summer 2011 it will probably > not do so for several years at least.. > > I would ask your Department to evaluate what is likely to happen to arctic > sea ice at the end of summer 2011 with the utmost urgency. The importance of > this can be gauged from the contents of the enclosed letter, below. > Please can you evaluate what is likely to happen and send a reply please. > > I would be delighted to assist in this matter and can be contacted on phone > 020 7837 9025 or on this 'E' mail address. > > Yours Sincerely > > John B Davies > > > > > > > NEW PERIL IN THE ARCTIC JOHN B DAVIES > > Dear Editor, > The area of arctic sea ice in late summer declined substantially > in the decade until 2007 and has been stable since then. However in 2010 the > area of sea ice which was more than two years old, and was therefore thin > ice was substantially less than ever before. > > A reasonable judgment is that there is a 40% chance that the sea ice area > will decline significantly to less than 2.5 million square kilometres in > 2011 and a 1 in 3 chance the area will fall to less than 2 million square > kilometres as measured by the Cryosphere Today. The minimum ice area in 2010 > was 3 million square kilometres using Cryosphere Today figures. > > Since ice reflects sunlight whilst water absorbs sun light should the ice > area decline then the arctic will warm in late summer. This may well warm > the Tundra which will defrost faster than at present. The result will be > that the Greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and Methane will be released into > the atmosphere leading to further warming and a runaway greenhouse event and > the collapse of civilization. > > We believe that should there be a substantial decline in sea ice area then > by marshalling all the resources of humanity and cutting greenhouse gas > emissions substantially and using geo- engineering then the global climate > and civilization can be saved. We need to be ready to start in autumn 2011 > if the situation goes badly in late summer 2011. > > Yours Sincerely, > > Signatures > > 1 Stephen Salter, Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design, University of > Edinburgh, [email protected] > > 2 Albert Kallio [email protected] > > 3 John Davies [email protected] > > 4 John Nissen [email protected] > > 5 Nicola Deakin [email protected] > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]. > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. 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