Hi Bill, Good to hear from you and to have Eli Kintisch with us. The Earth System has moved on in 5 years - especially with: the sea ice retreat in September 2007 (and subsequent decline in sea ice volume - with a plausible non-linear trend curve reaching zero in September 2015 or 2016 [1]); the discovery of vast quantities of methane under shallow Arctic waters starting to bubble up [2]; and the droughts of 2005 and 2010 threatening the Amazon rainforest [3]. I think these are the most urgent things to be tackled - if we fail to halt the sea ice retreat, fail to stop the methane bubbling up, or fail to rescue the rainforest, then we will have lost the plot, and any amount of geoengineering will be too late. Global warming will spiral upwards out of control threatening life on land, while ocean acidification will kill off life at sea.
It would be very interesting to know whether, had we started applying SRM in 2008 for cooling the Arctic, this could have halted the current retreat by now. This could surely be modelled by perturbation on what actually happened. It would show us just how close we could be to leaving geoengineering too late. As for the rainforest, we still need to work out what kind of intervention could be used to reduce the stress on trees, e.g. by reducing the severity of future droughts. Again any proposed intervention could be checked by modelling its effect if it had been started in, say, 2008. Then, almost as urgently, we need to be removing CO2 from the atmosphere - as the pH is lower than it's been during the Ice Ages and the rate of acidification is worse than it even was in the PETM, 55 million years ago [4]. Oliver Tickell reckons it can be done for as little as $10 per tonne, by rock grinding. This could be combined with biochar in order to obtain soil improvement in addition to CO2 drawdown. I'm all for research, but if we do not start trials of some of the geoengineering techniques while preparing for full-scale deployment, we could find ourselves in a panic situation. I'm organising a workshop to brainstorm the Arctic methane issue on weekend 3-4 September in London - and hope to follow it up with a pilot project to trial the most promising techniques we identify, if I can find funding. There's no time to lose. Cheers, John [1] http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/ [2] http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=12040&pageid=&pagename= [3] http://www.wilderutopia.com/environment/rainforest-wilt-2010-drought-in-the-amazon/ [4] http://bristol.academia.edu/DanielaSchmidt/Papers/376335/The_Societal_challenge_of_ocean_acidification ---- On Sat, Jul 2, 2011 at 2:52 AM, Fulkerson, William <[email protected]> wrote: > Dear Ken: > You are absolutely correct. Who would have ever believed when we proposed > R&D planning 5-6 years ago, mostly directed toward SRM, that it would take > so long to even begin to discuss it globally and with government agencies. > Thanks to your work, perhaps it is beginning to happen. I am glad to see > Brother Kintisch involved. > Good luck, > Bill > > > > On 7/1/11 5:30 PM, "Ken Caldeira" <[email protected]> wrote: > > Folks, > > Please note that AGU policy let's you submit a second first-author abstract > to policy-oriented sessions if you are submitting a first-author abstract to > a regular science section. > > Abstract submissions deadlines are Aug 4. So please submit an abstract to: > *AGU Session U20/Geoengineering Research Policy > **Potential abrupt climate change could cause human suffering. As such, > small scale, government-funded research efforts exploring opportunities and > risks of geoengineering, and societal implications, are underway in at least > four countries. Modest privately funded research also exists. Reports on > geoengineering research policy forthcoming in 2011 include one by the U.K. > Royal Society on solar radiation management, and one sponsored by the > National Commission on Energy Policy on a potential U.S. research program. > This session would offer perspectives from these or other recent major > efforts on geoengineering policy, and discussion from authors in scientific > fields, history, ethics, research policy and geopolitics. > * > *Conveners: Eli Kintisch (Science) and Ken Caldeira (Carnegie) > * > If a non-AGU member wants to submit an abstract, they should contact me > directly so that I can act as your sponsor (you still need to submit the > abstract through normal channels). > http://sites.agu.org/fallmeeting/ > > My sense is that discussions of SRM (and to a lesser extent, CDR) research > planning have fallen way behind discussions of governance issues and it is > time to put some thought into SRM and CDR research planning. > > Best, > > Ken > > PS. Eli want to attempt the following form below which you could fill out > if you want to, but it is certainly not required and certainly not a > substitute for submitting an abstract to AGU. > > PPS. bcc list (put here instead of the cc-line so that people who did not > agree to receive such communication do not get many "reply-all" emails): > > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected], > [email protected], [email protected], <[email protected]>, > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected], <[email protected]>,David E Winickoff < > [email protected]>,David Goldston <[email protected]>,David > Keith <[email protected]>,David Whelan <[email protected]>, > [email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected],Frank Loy > <[email protected]>,[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected],Granger Morgan < > [email protected]>,[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected],< > [email protected]>,Jane Long <[email protected]>, > [email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],John Shepherd <[email protected]>, <[email protected]>, > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected],Millie Chu Baird < > [email protected]>,[email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected], [email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],Ron Lehman <[email protected]>,[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected],<[email protected]>, > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],<[email protected]>,<[email protected]>,< > [email protected]>,[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected] <[email protected] > >,[email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],<[email protected]>,[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected],[email protected] <[email protected]>, > [email protected],[email protected],[email protected],[email protected], > [email protected] > > -------------------------- > > If you have trouble viewing or submitting this form, you can fill it out > online: > > https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dFBLV1JHeWZlVFVNcnZWRW92VEQ3Umc6MQ > *AGU Session U20/Geoengineering Research Policy: Submission RSVP > ***August 4 deadline Description: Potential abrupt climate change could > cause human suffering. As such, small scale, government-funded research > efforts exploring opportunities and risks of geoengineering, and societal > implications, are underway in at least four countries. Modest privately > funded research also exists. Reports on geoengineering research policy > forthcoming in 2011 include one by the U.K. Royal Society on solar radiation > management, and one sponsored by the National Commission on Energy Policy on > a potential U.S. research program. This session would offer perspectives > from these or other recent major efforts on geoengineering policy, and > discussion from authors in scientific fields, history, ethics, research > policy and geopolitics. ___________________________________________________ > This Google form is private to those Ken Caldeira and Eli Kintisch invite, > and the results cannot be read by anyone but them. > > Do you plan to submit an abstract? * > > - Yes > - No > - Maybe > > > > 2 Sentence description (so we have a sense of what's coming) > > Powered by Google Docs <http://docs.google.com/> Report Abuse < > https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/reportabuse?formkey=dFBLV1JHeWZlVFVNcnZWRW92VEQ3Umc6MQ&source=https%253A%252F%252Fspreadsheets.google.com%252Fspreadsheet%252Fviewform%253Fformkey%253DdFBLV1JHeWZlVFVNcnZWRW92VEQ3Umc6MQ> > - Terms of Service <http://www.google.com/accounts/TOS> - Additional Terms > <http://www.google.com/google-d-s/terms.html> > > > ___________________________________________________ > Ken Caldeira > > Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology > 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA > +1 650 704 7212 [email protected] > http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab @kencaldeira > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]. > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.
