Sorry‹I am not enough of an expert to comment per the request, especially
given complexities of the seasonal cycle, changing inversion strengths and
extents, etc.

Mike MacCracken 


On 7/28/11 9:54 PM, "nathan currier" <[email protected]> wrote:

> By the way, if 7% of total RF didn't sound that important in the last post,
> please remember that that means an RF that is almost 16% as big as CO2's RF
> since industrialization, and I was suggesting that we might conceivably have a
> means to tackle it safely and quite cheaply, with existing technologies - so
> that would be quite significant.
> 
> cheers, 
> 
> Nathan
> 
> On Thu, Jul 28, 2011 at 8:35 PM, nathan currier <[email protected]> wrote:
>> Hi, Andrew - 
>> 
>> It would be great if someone like Mike MacCracken could comment on some of
>> the chemistry in your posting - in that it seems to me confusing, and, I
>> suspect, somewhat confused. Could you, Andrew, show the  reactions that
>> you're thinking of, so I could understand better? You say that - "If the
>> coating acts on NOx and or the OH radical, it may even be counter
>> productive!" and also say that "OH recycles NOx." Also you write: "NOx
>> production uses free raw materials and is well mixed through the atmosphere."
>> My understanding goes against pretty much all of this, if I am understanding
>> you correctly. 
>> 
>> NOx certainly gets involved in reactions that lead to increased RF. But
>> generally NOx is considered climate neutral, I believe, because if you take a
>> NOx-centric view, you see it taking part in various reactions that have both
>> positive and negative indirect forcings, and that roughly cancel each other
>> out. 
>> 
>> If you look at, say, the NOx-methane interactions, where NOx laden air
>> produces more O3 in CH4 oxidation, then that added forcing is generally
>> counted for as part of CH4's indirect forcing, not counted for as a "indirect
>> forcing" for NOx. That makes more sense, I suppose, in that the methane is
>> fundamental to creating the greenhouse effect anyhow, is one of the most
>> primary biomolecules on the planet, etc. 
>> 
>> NOx, I believe, always demands considerable energy to create (what did you
>> mean by OH recycles it?), since it demands the splitting of the N2 triple
>> bond, so the NOx in our air is almost all anthropogenic and comes from
>> internal combustion engines and such. There's very little of it in unpolluted
>> air, except from lightning and other high energy things. OH is the primary
>> oxidant of the atmosphere, and, though it can fluctuate a good deal, the
>> total budget is assumed to be surprisingly stable, given all the human
>> assaults on the atmosphere. 
>> 
>> Thus, if you look at more recent RF pie charts (Shindell at GISS has done
>> lots of work on indirect RFs), NOx is not there at all, but VOCs and CO
>> obviously are, and are quite important -  indeed, they have added twice the
>> RF of N2O, which, unlike NOx, IS a fundamental part of non-anthropogenic
>> chemistry and of the planet's GH effect. 
>> 
>> So, the way I see it, then, if you can catalyze more OH production directly
>> from the sun's energy, either from singlet O or from splitting an O3 (not by
>> creating new O3!), that's a very good thing. But, on the other hand, you want
>> to get rid of NOx, not increase it. NOx will increase the CH4 indirect
>> forcing, and while it will create some OH - and OH gets "reincarnated" in the
>> process of the methane oxidation chain of reactions - that's your BAD OH, in
>> that it's leading to the creation of more O3, I think. 
>> 
>> In terms of TiO2 being practical or not, obviously if white roofing is
>> practical, then the photocatalytic surface is, too. They both use TiO2. And
>> white roofing is the most "practical" of all geoengineering, in that no one
>> is opposed to it. The surface would be much cheaper than the paint. Even
>> solar energy might use TiO2 as well. Of course, if ALL of that happened,
>> there'd be a big crunch on TiO2 and the need to search for new sources.  
>> 
>> The most confused part of your post seemed to me: "Tio2 works well on poorly
>> mixed pollutants with a high contact area, none of which applies to methane."
>> But that's the whole point: the NOx discussion is essentially a red herring
>> in terms of climate impacts, but these 
>> "poorly mixed pollutants" - the VOCS and CO - are almost 7% of +RF since
>> industrialization - and their RF is really all methane-related: It's an
>> indirect forcing coming from the OH budget deficit they cause, in turn
>> slowing the methane sink. 
>> 
>> But, you see, the TiO2 makes new OH from singlet O + H2O, or O3, and it acts
>> on those "poorly mixed pollutants" like VOCs and CO effectively, as you agree
>> - which are in copious quantities all around human surfaces. This should then
>> cut down on that 7% of RF by reducing a major indirect forcing, and thus
>> speeding up methane's oxidation. 
>> 
>> Cheers,
>> 
>> Nathan
>> 
>>  
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> On Thu, Jul 28, 2011 at 3:22 PM, Andrew Lockley <[email protected]>
>> wrote:
>>> 
>>> This proposed method of methane remediation is similar to the existing sink,
>>> as although OH radical production isn't strictly catalytic, it does recycle
>>> NOx. Whether the chemistry works or not is something I can't comment on.
>>> 
>>> However, I don't think that TiO2 is likely to be practical.  Although it is
>>> leveraged (as it uses the suns energy), it is limited in the contact surface
>>> area, potential area of application and the availability and possibly the
>>> cost of raw materials. In contrast NOx production uses free raw materials
>>> and is well mixed through the atmosphere. Tio2 works well on poorly mixed
>>> pollutants with a high contact area, none of which applies to methane.
>>> 
>>>  I'm also not sure of the proposed TiO2 chemistry. If the coating acts on
>>> NOx and or the OH radical, it may even be counter productive!
>>> 
>>> I'd be prepared to be proved wrong on all of the above :-)
>>> 
>>> A
>>> 
>>> On 28 Jul 2011 18:50, "Nathan Currier" <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>> > Hi Andrew, Sam, Oliver -
>>>> > 
>>>> > I heartily agree, & think that this is potentially one of the
>>>> > "sleepers" of the geoengineering world -
>>>> > it is also unique in that it is neither CDR nor SRM & would probably
>>>> > be quite safe & thus easily enacted.
>>>> > 
>>>> > I would doubt that you're going after it the right way, though, Sam,
>>>> > in that the kinds of things
>>>> > you have been thinking about always demand passing air - which is way
>>>> > too
>>>> > energy-intensive. And Oliver, clearly one doesn't want to be
>>>> > intentionally making
>>>> > any new GHGs while trying to fix the GHG problem, unless it's making
>>>> > something pretty damn
>>>> > destructive of GHGs later on!.....
>>>> > 
>>>> > Andrew, I'm not sure what you meant by "leveraging existing
>>>> > processes",
>>>> > but I had an idea in this general line several years ago, and actually
>>>> > first learned of this
>>>> > group when I saw Mike mentioning to Ken something about it......
>>>> > 
>>>> > In a sense, it is like using the band gap energy used in solar cells,
>>>> > but the energy makes
>>>> > hydroxyl instead.....of course, that's already a well developed idea,
>>>> > and it all started
>>>> > in Japan - it's sometimes called the "Fujishima effect" after Akira
>>>> > Fujishima who started it.
>>>> > It's been used in various forms of environmental remediation for quite
>>>> > some time now.
>>>> > 
>>>> > It's all about exploiting the unique photocatalytic properties of
>>>> > TiO2. At this point there has now been lots
>>>> > of research in Japan (and much of it not translated, I've been told),
>>>> > and there are even commercial products
>>>> > called "environmental nano-coatings" and so on. There's a leading TiO2
>>>> > expert at UVA (John Yates) who I approached about all this,
>>>> > who told me once of visiting Fujishima, and being taken to a place in
>>>> > Tokyo where a whole block of large city buildings
>>>> > have been covered in a TiO2 coating, and studies have shown the NOx,
>>>> > O3, & CO, VOCs and other reactive species
>>>> > are all greatly reduced around there from the surrounding air - with
>>>> > huge % changes, 30% and more.
>>>> > 
>>>> > So, my simple idea had been this: if one thinks of the atmospheric OH
>>>> > sink as a drain in which more reactive species selectively
>>>> > go down more easily, raising OH anywhere and letting it act on VOCs
>>>> > etc, should, globally considered, accelerate
>>>> > the methane sink thus lowering the CH4 forcing (and that's behind the
>>>> > "indirect GWP" concept of such species). Since
>>>> > methane is a LLGHG, Sam, it's a waste to spend energy pushing air
>>>> > around - methane is already everywhere.
>>>> > 
>>>> > Therefore, an entirely passive approach could be to add a photo-
>>>> > catalytic coating on top of white surfacing. It's a highly
>>>> > synergistic concept, since the TiO2's unique hydrophobic/hydrophilic
>>>> > qualities also make it an albedo booster (keeping white things
>>>> > whiter), by being a self-cleanser of surfaces (TiO2 is used to keep
>>>> > windows cleaner, for ex.) It would be MUCH cheaper than the white
>>>> > paint used for the surfacing, by at least a few orders of magnitude.
>>>> > My guess would be this approach could greatly boost the climate impact
>>>> > of white surfacing projects, and I haven't seen studies exploring this
>>>> > at all yet, although grad students at UVA told me it probably has
>>>> > already been studied in Japan, and I never had good enough data to
>>>> > even make my own rough calculations of what it might yield.
>>>> > 
>>>> > Now, then, I mentioned that it's kind of like solar energy, in a
>>>> > sense. Do you know of Graetzel, who started the Graetzel cell?
>>>> > That's a solar cell that's TiO2 based (and could be the "Next Big
>>>> > Thing" for the world, if it turns out well.....i.e., the solar slurry
>>>> > idea).
>>>> > I had once come across a very early paper of his, and think it could
>>>> > lead to something in this area you are all looking at:
>>>> > he was studying the capacity to degrade methane in ambient conditions,
>>>> > & so was studying TiO2 with co-catalysts. He wrote a paper
>>>> > on a molybdenum doped TiO2 that seemed to have a good action on
>>>> > methane at ambient temperature. So this would be more like pulling the
>>>> > methane right down the drain, rather than waiting for the lowered VOCs
>>>> > etc to help the methane go down it. It would demand a LOT of work to
>>>> > both explore various co-catalysts and see what's the best for directly
>>>> > attacking methane, and then to determine which route would be better
>>>> > to pursue - such a targeted catalyst, or a simpler "OH maker" that
>>>> > targets nothing at all, but helps "open the drain."
>>>> > 
>>>> > As far as that last goes, another thing: John Yates (the one at UVA),
>>>> > while he right away told me that he "doesn't invent things," and thus
>>>> > had no interest in getting involved directly in my pursuit, did
>>>> > mention a curious thing to me, in a presentation he arranged for me by
>>>> > some of his grad students. The unique properties of TiO2 come from
>>>> > defects in the crystal lattice structure of the molecule. He's the
>>>> > world's leading expert of this, a theoretical chemist who has spent
>>>> > his life perfecting his own construction (a specially dedicated kind
>>>> > of SEM, I think) to look deep inside the TiO2 molecule. One thing he
>>>> > said to me stuck in my mind: it might not be hard, he said, to use
>>>> > nano tech to expand the defect of the O atom, and thus get more OH
>>>> > made through its band gap activation. So, this could make a more
>>>> > productive molecule - either for making solar energy, or, I suppose,
>>>> > for taking junk out of the air and lowering its RF.
>>>> > 
>>>> > cheers,
>>>> > 
>>>> > Nathan
>>>> > 
>>>> > ps - re arctic methane - since this is mild approach, I doubt it would
>>>> > be a big part of dealing with any emergency there, but if it were, it
>>>> > could involve adding such a coating on top of the kind of recycled
>>>> > plastic faux ice-floe idea that I've mentioned before in this
>>>> > group....
>>>> > 
>>>> > 
>>>> > 
>>>> > 
>>>> > 
>>>> > 
>>>> > 
>>>> > 
>>>> > 
>>>> > I got another UVA chemistry faculty (Lehmann) who has developed
>>>> > perhaps the most sensitive way of reading methane, with dual lasers,
>>>> > interested in helping me run some simple experiments.
>>>> > 
>>>> > 
>>>> > 
>>>> > 
>>>> > 
>>>> > 
>>>> > On Jul 26, 7:32 am, Andrew Lockley <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>>> >> Creating OH radical is best done by leveraging existing processes.
>>>>> >> The radical is too short-lived to be effectively distributed when
>>>>> >> produced industrially, and energy costs are also too high.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> The NOx recycling reaction series was chosen by L Zhou et al in their
>>>>> >> recent paper, as (in dry air) NOx is persistent and recycles.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> For the paper,
>>>>> seehttp://www.atm.helsinki.fi/FAAR/reportseries/rs-109/abstracts/Luxi%20.
>>>>> <http://www.atm.helsinki.fi/FAAR/reportseries/rs-109/abstracts/Luxi%20.>
..
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> Biological processes are able to indirectly create NOx by nitrogen
>>>>> >> fixation using symbiotic bacteria in root nodules.  The plants can
>>>>> >> then be burned to liberate NOx into the atmosphere.  The Lupin is one
>>>>> >> potential candidate, but other N2 fixers such as clover may also work.
>>>>> >> This could additionally perhaps be used as a source of biochar.  The
>>>>> >> slight complexity is that NOx rains out in wet air, but the plants
>>>>> >> need to be grown in wet soil.  Haul costs are likely to be a
>>>>> >> significant issue, therefore.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> One slightly 'far out' approach is to press ahead with the attempts to
>>>>> >> make non-legumes capable of fixing N2 through GM.  This would
>>>>> >> revolutionize global agriculture, as well as giving a feedstock for
>>>>> >> geoengineering - as the N2 fixation process is the chemical
>>>>> >> underpinning of protein creation in crops.  This isn't fanciful, and
>>>>> >> lots of work is already being done.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> An alternative technique with a much more limited scope of application
>>>>> >> is the addition of Br2 to create Br radical.  This would need to be
>>>>> >> done in clean, damp air overlying the oceans.  There is an existing
>>>>> >> 'hole' in the global OH shield east of Papua New Guinea, where this
>>>>> >> technique could be applied.http://eprints.ifm-geomar.de/10069/ It is
>>>>> >> one of the authors of this paper who suggested the Br technique to me.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> The downsides of creating NOx, as Zhou et al note, is that the both
>>>>> >> NOx itself, and the trop O3, are both toxic and also GHGs in their own
>>>>> >> right.  It's not a pleasant solution to have to be considering.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> Readers should note the Kyoto controls on NOx, which have a beneficial
>>>>> >> effect by potentially reducing forcing, but a negative indirect effect
>>>>> >> by reducing OH radical production, which will become more significant
>>>>> >> in a low OH, high CH4 atmos.  However, it should also be noted that
>>>>> >> locally high NOx concentrations are associated with different
>>>>> >> chemistry which does not lead to the production of OH and the
>>>>> >> consequential breakdown of methane.  Therefore, industrial OH
>>>>> >> controls, particularly in smoggy cities, are generally beneficial,
>>>>> >> whereas in rural areas those same controls may have a positive RF
>>>>> >> outcome.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> This is a very interesting field, and one that more assistance and
>>>>> >> input is welcomed in.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> A
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> On 26 July 2011 10:54, Sam Carana <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> > Oliver Tickell wrote:
>>>>>>> >> >> Another approach would be to enhance HO hydroxyl in the atmosphere
- the
>>>>>>> >> >> main destroyer of methane. I have no idea how to set about doing
>>>>>>> this. It
>>>>>>> >> >> could be helpful to reduce emissions that utilise existing
>>>>>>> hydroxyl, such as
>>>>>>> >> >> miscellaneous hydrocarbons. But the chemistry is complex and it is
>>>>>>> hard to
>>>>>>> >> >> strictly follow through any intervention to its end results!
>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> > There are a number of methods that seek to reduce methane whilst
>>>>>> still
>>>>>> >> > in the water (microbes, bubbles, covering the water surface with
>>>>>> white
>>>>>> >> > plastic to capture the methane, etc).
>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> > One problem is that, in many places (including in ESAS), waters are
>>>>>> >> > shallow and there's little time for microbes to do their work,
>>>>>> >> > especially when hydrates suddenly start releasing huge amounts of
>>>>>> >> > methane.
>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> > Therefore, it's crucial to also look at hydroxyl and I advocate two
>>>>>> >> > types of feebates to help reduce emissions that compete for
>>>>>> hydroxyl:
>>>>>> >> > 1. Energy feebates (seeking to reduce emissions from power plants
and
>>>>>> >> > help electrify transport); and
>>>>>> >> > 2. Fees on livestock products to fund biochar, which will reduce
>>>>>> >> > methane, while encouraging pyrolysis and thus also reduce BC,  VOC
and
>>>>>> >> > the like.
>>>>>> >> 
>>>>>> >http://knol.google.com/k/sam-carana/the-way-back-to-280-ppm/7y50rvz99...
>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> > As to enhancing hydroxyl in the arctic, here are some suggestions:
>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> > - Tri-Air Developments has developed a technology that combines UV
>>>>>> >> > light with extremely low levels of ozone and mixes it with volatile
>>>>>> >> > hydrocarbons, to produce hydroxyls. This technology is used in
>>>>>> Cirrus3
>>>>>> >> > devices that emit hydroxyls in rooms of less than 25m3 up to rooms
in
>>>>>> >> > excess of 500m3 (image below). Perhaps such technology could be used
>>>>>> >> > at large scale in the Arctic to combat the methane menace.
>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> > - Another method may be to use UV light for photolysis of hydrogen
>>>>>> peroxide.
>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> > - Using UV light to break down methane in the Arctic could possibly
be
>>>>>> >> > achieved by model airplanes, equipped with LiPo batteries and with
>>>>>> >> > solar thin film mounted both on top of and underneath the wings.
>>>>>> >> > Numerous such planes could navigate the Arctic by autopilot in
>>>>>> summer,
>>>>>> >> > when there are high concentrations of hydrogen peroxide and when the
>>>>>> >> > sun shines 24-hours a day. Flying figure-8 patterns with the wings
>>>>>> >> > under an angle could optimize capture of sunlight, keeping the
>>>>>> planes
>>>>>> >> > in the air, while using surplus energy to power UV lights. At the
end
>>>>>> >> > of summer, the planes could return home for a check-up and possible
>>>>>> >> > upgrade of the technology, to be launched again early summer the
next
>>>>>> >> > year.
>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> 
>>>>>> >http://knol.google.com/k/the-threat-of-methane-release-from-permafros...
>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> > Cheers!
>>>>>> >> > Sam Carana
>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> > On Tue, Jul 26, 2011 at 1:44 PM, John Nissen <[email protected]>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> Thanks Oliver.
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> I'm posting your comments to the geoengineering group with the
>>>>>>> questions you
>>>>>>> >> >> raise:
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> 1.  Could the CDM be used to fund, or help fund, our pilot project
>>>>>>> to trial
>>>>>>> >> >> various techniques for tackling the Arctic methane problem?  Could
it
>>>>>>> >> >> subsequently fund deployment of selected techniques?
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> 2.  Is there any way to enhance HO hydroxyl in the atmosphere?
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> Cheers,
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> John
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> ---
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> On 25/07/2011 17:52, Oliver Tickell wrote:
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> Certainly it makes sense to do something about large, concentrated
>>>>>>> methane
>>>>>>> >> >> emissions where it is realistic to capture the gas and burn it
>>>>>>> off, or use
>>>>>>> >> >> it for heat / power.
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> Does the CDM currently provide credits for methane projects of
>>>>>>> this type? I
>>>>>>> >> >> believe it does for methane from pig farms etc so there is no
>>>>>>> obvious reason
>>>>>>> >> >> why it should not.
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> Another approach would be to enhance HO hydroxyl in the atmosphere
- the
>>>>>>> >> >> main destroyer of methane. I have no idea how to set about doing
>>>>>>> this. It
>>>>>>> >> >> could be helpful to reduce emissions that utilise existing
>>>>>>> hydroxyl, such as
>>>>>>> >> >> miscellaneous hydrocarbons. But the chemistry is complex and it is
>>>>>>> hard to
>>>>>>> >> >> strictly follow through any intervention to its end results!
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> Oliver.
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> --
>>>>>>> >> >> Oliver Tickell
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> On 25/07/2011 15:09, Veli Albert Kallio wrote:
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> I think definitely that we can prevent on-shore methane
>>>>>>> explosions, and
>>>>>>> >> >> saturated methane laden water pockets that are approaching
>>>>>>> nucleating point.
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> There are 3 types of methane leaking:
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> 1) generic leaking of methane from melting permafrost over large
>>>>>>> areas that
>>>>>>> >> >> provide widespread methane haze
>>>>>>> >> >> 2) spot type ongoing methane leaking from permaforst or onshore
>>>>>>> gas fields
>>>>>>> >> >> that are losing their subterranean gas compression due to
>>>>>>> ruptures.
>>>>>>> >> >> 3) explosive methane eruptions (methane clatrates, Lake Cheko's
>>>>>>> conical
>>>>>>> >> >> basin gas field failure in Tunguska 1908 as river fell into gas
>>>>>>> field and
>>>>>>> >> >> drove methane out).
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> No. 1 you cannot control. No. 2 depends on how big and focused the
>>>>>>> leaking
>>>>>>> >> >> is, there are vast bubbling spots, in Azerbaijan there are flaming
>>>>>>> mountains
>>>>>>> >> >> where gas comes out of rocks. These you can control. No. 3 can be
>>>>>>> controlled
>>>>>>> >> >> by method of Professor Michel Halbwachs. Often methane can be
>>>>>>> spotted as a
>>>>>>> >> >> very focused leak on sea floor which might be possible to cap.
>>>>>>> So, I think
>>>>>>> >> >> the idea is valid in certain cases, in other cases it may not be
>>>>>>> workable.
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> ________________________________
>>>>>>> >> >> Date: Mon, 25 Jul 2011 11:28:12 +0100
>>>>>>> >> >> From: [email protected]
>>>>>>> >> >> Subject: Re: Arctic methane workshop, London, 15-16th October
>>>>>>> CONFIRMED
>>>>>>> >> >> To: [email protected]
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> John, I  think you are on a hiding to nothing trying to trap or
>>>>>>> destroy the
>>>>>>> >> >> methane.
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> The reason is simple - the emissions are spread over such a vast
>>>>>>> area of
>>>>>>> >> >> many millions of sq.km <http://sq.km> . Even to trap and destroy
>>>>>>> the methane emissions from
>>>>>>> >> >> 1sq.km <http://1sq.km>  would be a fantastically difficult and
>>>>>>> expensive task.
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> So you can simplify things by just ruling this one out at the
>>>>>>> start!
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> Oliver.
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> --
>>>>>>> >> >> Oliver Tickell
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> On 22/07/2011 18:29, John Nissen wrote:
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> Dear all,
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> In case you were not aware, the workshop, which was to have been
3-4th
>>>>>>> >> >> September, is now going to be on 15-16th October.  Here is the
>>>>>>> background
>>>>>>> >> >> and purpose of the workshop...
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> A group of scientists and engineers (including myself) is deeply
>>>>>>> concerned
>>>>>>> >> >> about the potential of methane from thawing permafrost in the
>>>>>>> Arctic to
>>>>>>> >> >> cause irreversible, catastrophic and unsurvivable global
>>>>>>> warming.   Major
>>>>>>> >> >> factors are the unexpectedly rapid retreat of sea ice [1] and the
>>>>>>> >> >> unexpectedly large quantities of carbon which might be emitted as
>>>>>>> methane
>>>>>>> >> >> [2].  In June 2010 we wrote an open letter to Obama's scientific
>>>>>>> adviser, Dr
>>>>>>> >> >> John Holdren, suggesting action was urgently needed to address the
>>>>>>> methane
>>>>>>> >> >> issue [3].   Some sea ice experts, including Professor Peter
>>>>>>> Wadhams in our
>>>>>>> >> >> group, now reckon the Arctic Ocean will very likely become
>>>>>>> seasonably ice
>>>>>>> >> >> free this decade if there is no action to cool the Arctic.
>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> >> Recently Peter Wadhams has drawn my attention to work of Natalia
>>>>>>> Shakhova
>>>>>>> >> >> with Igor Semiletov on East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) -
>>>>>>> particularly
>>>>>>> >> >> concerning the present large emissions of methane and the
>>>>>>> possibility of
>>>>>>> >> >> release of much larger quantities "at any time".   So we have been
>>>>>>> wondering
>>>>>>> >> >> whether anything can be done quickly to reduce this methane
>>>>>>> threat.   We
>>>>>>> >> >> have been discussing possible action, and plan
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> ...
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> read more »
>>>> > 
>>>> > -- 
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>> 
>> 

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