Of course these analyses are misleading as they hide the outsourcing of carbon intensive processes to non kyoto countries
It's all a sham - we've not changed a thing underneath our new cloak of respectability. There is no evidence here of humans having the capacity to voluntarily reduce consumption in a market capitalist society. Until alternative energy sources are deployed I see no hope for change in emissions without a population crash or major war. A On Sep 23, 2011 8:10 AM, "Emily" <[email protected]> wrote: > dear all, > > > FYI a new report on recent and long-term emission trends by PBL and IES > (of the European Commission). > > Note that it's CO2 only, and excluding land use emissions (which would > add a further 20% to global CO2 emissions - with large annual variations). > > Here's the full report: > http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2011/long-term-trend-in-global-co2-emissions-2011-report > > > > Long-term trend in global CO2 emissions; 2011 report > > Report | 21-09-2011 > > > *After a 1 percent decline in 2009, global carbon dioxide (CO_2 ) > emissions increased by more than 5 percent in 2010, which is > unprecedented in the last two decades. The industrialised countries that > ratified the Kyoto Protocol, together with the non-ratifying USA emitted > approximately 7.5 percent less CO_2 in 2010 than in 1990 and > collectively remain on target to meet the original Kyoto Protocol > objective of a 5.2 percent reduction. However their efforts are > increasingly hidden in the global picture as their share of CO_2 > emissions has dropped from two-thirds to less than half.* > > > Global CO_2 emissions growth continues the long-term trend > > After a 1 percent decline in 2009, global carbon dioxide (CO_2 ) > emissions increased by more than 5 percent in 2010, which is > unprecedented in the last two decades, but similar to 1976, when the > global economy was recovering from the first oil crisis and subsequent > stock market crash. Continuing growth in the developing nations and > economic recovery in the industrialised countries drove the > record-breaking 5.8 percent increase in global CO_2 emissions to the > all-time high of 33.0 billion tonnes, even though these have not > returned to pre-recession levels in most industrialised countries. CO_2 > emissions went up in most of the major economies, led by China, USA, > India and EU-27 with increases of 10 percent, 4 percent, 9 percent and 3 > percent respectively. > > The annualised average growth rate in global CO_2 emissions over the > last three years of the credit crunch, including a 1 percent increase in > 2008 when the first impacts became visible, is 1.7 percent, almost equal > to the long-term annual average of 1.9 percent for the preceding two > decades back to 1990. Global non-biogenic CO_2 emissions are estimated > at 22.7 billion tonnes CO_2 in 1990 and 31.6 billion tonnes in 2008, > while the first estimate for 2010 is 33.0 billion tonnes, an increase of > 45 percent since 1990, which is the same percentage as in the twenty > years before 1990. These figures exclude emissions from biomass burning > such as forest fires, which are rather uncertain. > > These preliminary estimates have been made by the PBL Netherlands > Environmental Assessment Agency and the European Commission’s Joint > Research Centre (JRC) on the basis of energy consumption data for 2008 > to 2010 recently published by BP. The estimates are also based on > production data for cement, lime, ammonia and steel and emissions per > country from 1970 to 2008 from version 4.2 of the Emissions Database for > Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), a joint project of JRC and PBL. > > > Industrialised countries remain on Kyoto target > > Collectively the group of industrialised countries committed to a Kyoto > target, i.e. excluding the USA that has not ratified the protocol, has > the target of reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by 4.2 percent on > average for the period 2008-2012 relative to the base year, which in > most cases is 1990. With an estimated average emission reduction of 16 > percent for 2008-2012, they are certain to exceed their target quite > comfortably. > > Even including the USA whose emissions in 2008-2010 are 11 percent more > than in 1990, the industrialised countries have on average reduced > greenhouse gas emissions by about 7.5 percent in the period 2008-2010, > compared with 1990. Together they are well on course to achieve the > protocol, target of a collective average decrease in greenhouse gas > emissions of 5.2 percent between 2008 and 2012 compared to the 1990 > level. This is mainly due to the decreases in emissions in the countries > whose economies were in transition in the early nineties and to the > recent recession. The headline figure hides large national variations > and several countries will not meet their national target without > emissions trading, or credits purchased from certified emission > reduction projects in developing countries under the UN’s Clean > Development Mechanism (CDM). Overall, the impact of the Kyoto target > reductions is increasingly hidden in the global picture where their > share of CO_2 emissions has dropped from two-thirds to less than half > since 1990. > > Although the global mitigation contribution of the Kyoto Protocol is > limited, it can be considered as a small but important first step and it > has stimulated the development of new environmental and energy > diversification policies that in turn have led to many green technology > developments and furthered their penetration into the energy market. > > > Regional differences: China and India jump while OECD countries increase > > > OECD countries and Russia > > In Europe, CO_2 emissions from industries regulated by the EU Emissions > Trading Scheme (ETS) increased in 2010 by 3 percent, which is > substantially lower than the rebound in output, after an exceptional > decline of CO_2 emissions of 11.8 percent in 2009. In the USA, industry > emissions from fuel combustion increased by 3.8 percent. Total CO_2 > emissions in the EU-27 increased by 3 percent to 4.0 billion tonnes (in > the EU-15 by 3 percent to 3.1 billion tonnes) and in the USA by 4 > percent to 5.2 billion tonnes, after decreases in 2009 of 4 percent in > the EU-27 and 8 percent in the EU-15 and in the USA. The CO_2 emissions > increased in Japan by 6.5 percent to 1.2 billion tonnes and in Russia by > 4 percent to 1.7 billion tonnes, after decreases in 2009 of 13 percent > in Japan and 7 percent in Russia. Total CO_2 emissions of all > industrialised countries that have quantitative greenhouse gas > mitigation targets under the Kyoto Protocol increased in 2010 by 3.5 > percent (including the USA that did not ratify the protocol). > > > China and India > > Since 2003, CO_2 emissions in China have doubled, and in India they have > increased by 60 percent. In 2010, Chinese CO_2 emissions jumped by 10 > percent to 9.0 billion tonnes, even though China has doubled its > installed wind and solar power capacity for the sixth successive year. > India, where three-quarters of the gross domestic product, goes to meet > domestic demand, has also been relatively unaffected by the credit > crunch and its emissions continued to increase in 2010 by 9 percent to > 1.8 billion tonnes of CO_2 . India is now the fourth largest CO_2 > emitter, well ahead of Russia that in fifth place and behind the EU-27. > > > Other developing countries > > In 2010 the economies of most other developing countries also recovered > from the recession in 2009, with CO_2 emissions following suit. Brazil > jumped 12 percent (from -5 percent in 2009), South Korea jumped 9 > percent (from 1 percent in 2009). In total, CO_2 emissions in these > countries increased on average almost 5 percent in 2010, up from 2 > percent in 2009. > > > Global emissions > > In 2010, total global CO_2 emissions reached 33.0 billion tonnes, a 30 > percent increase from 2000 and 45 percent more than 1990, the base year > of the Kyoto Protocol. In turn 1990 global emissions were 22.7 billion > tonnes, an increase of 45 percent on the 1970 level of 15.5 billion > tonnes. The twenty years from 1970 to 1990 and the twenty years from > 1990-2010 thus saw the same 45 percent growth in global emissions.. The > continuing large variation in national emission growth trends in 2010 > resulted in 54 percent of global emissions by developing countries and > 43 percent from the mature industrialised countries. The top six > emitting countries, including the EU-27 block, are responsible for 70 > percent of total global emissions and the top 25 emitting countries more > than 80 percent of total emissions. > > > Emissions per capita > > Since 1990, CO_2 emissions per capita have increased in China from 2.2 > to 6.8 tonne per capita and decreased in the EU-27 from 9.2 to 8.1 tonne > per capita (in EU-15 from 9.1 to 7.9) and from 19.7 to 16.9 tonne per > capita in the USA. Due to its rapid economic development, per capita > emissions in China are quickly approaching levels common in the > industrialised countries of the Annex I group under the Kyoto Protocol. > Present CO_2 emissions per person in China are now equal to those of > Italy and higher than France, although the sectoral shares of > households, transport, power generation, manufacturing industry and the > service sector are quite different. Although per capita emissions of > India have doubled since 1990, with 1.5 tonne per capita they remain > much lower than in industrialised countries. When comparing CO_2 trends > between countries also trends in population numbers should also be taken > into account, since population growth rates differ considerably, also > between Annex I countries. > > > Trends in renewable energy sources > > The annual growth in total renewable energy supply accelerated after > 2003 from a few per cent to an average of 6 percent, and 2010 had the > highest growth rate since 1990 of over 7 percent. Renewable energy’s > share of the global energy supply has increased from 7 percent by 2004 > to over 8 percent by 2009 and 2010 (excluding traditional biofuels such > as fuelwood and charcoal). The share of nuclear power, the other > non-fossil energy source, remained constant at about 6 percent, for many > years, with nuclear capacity increasing in line with increasing global > energy consumption. Taken together nuclear and renewable energy sources > have led to a decline in overall share of fossil fuels from 88 percent > in 1990 to about 86 percent, the lowest in decades. However, in absolute > terms both energy demand and the share being met by fossil fuel are > growing faster since 1990 than the growth in new renewable energy > sources, which is accelerating, but not yet fast enough to curb the > increasing global CO_2 trend. > > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. > For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. 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