dear all,
FYI a new report on recent and long-term emission trends by PBL and IES
(of the European Commission).
Note that it's CO2 only, and excluding land use emissions (which would
add a further 20% to global CO2 emissions - with large annual variations).
Here's the full report:
http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2011/long-term-trend-in-global-co2-emissions-2011-report
Long-term trend in global CO2 emissions; 2011 report
Report | 21-09-2011
*After a 1 percent decline in 2009, global carbon dioxide (CO_2 )
emissions increased by more than 5 percent in 2010, which is
unprecedented in the last two decades. The industrialised countries that
ratified the Kyoto Protocol, together with the non-ratifying USA emitted
approximately 7.5 percent less CO_2 in 2010 than in 1990 and
collectively remain on target to meet the original Kyoto Protocol
objective of a 5.2 percent reduction. However their efforts are
increasingly hidden in the global picture as their share of CO_2
emissions has dropped from two-thirds to less than half.*
Global CO_2 emissions growth continues the long-term trend
After a 1 percent decline in 2009, global carbon dioxide (CO_2 )
emissions increased by more than 5 percent in 2010, which is
unprecedented in the last two decades, but similar to 1976, when the
global economy was recovering from the first oil crisis and subsequent
stock market crash. Continuing growth in the developing nations and
economic recovery in the industrialised countries drove the
record-breaking 5.8 percent increase in global CO_2 emissions to the
all-time high of 33.0 billion tonnes, even though these have not
returned to pre-recession levels in most industrialised countries. CO_2
emissions went up in most of the major economies, led by China, USA,
India and EU-27 with increases of 10 percent, 4 percent, 9 percent and 3
percent respectively.
The annualised average growth rate in global CO_2 emissions over the
last three years of the credit crunch, including a 1 percent increase in
2008 when the first impacts became visible, is 1.7 percent, almost equal
to the long-term annual average of 1.9 percent for the preceding two
decades back to 1990. Global non-biogenic CO_2 emissions are estimated
at 22.7 billion tonnes CO_2 in 1990 and 31.6 billion tonnes in 2008,
while the first estimate for 2010 is 33.0 billion tonnes, an increase of
45 percent since 1990, which is the same percentage as in the twenty
years before 1990. These figures exclude emissions from biomass burning
such as forest fires, which are rather uncertain.
These preliminary estimates have been made by the PBL Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency and the European Commission’s Joint
Research Centre (JRC) on the basis of energy consumption data for 2008
to 2010 recently published by BP. The estimates are also based on
production data for cement, lime, ammonia and steel and emissions per
country from 1970 to 2008 from version 4.2 of the Emissions Database for
Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), a joint project of JRC and PBL.
Industrialised countries remain on Kyoto target
Collectively the group of industrialised countries committed to a Kyoto
target, i.e. excluding the USA that has not ratified the protocol, has
the target of reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by 4.2 percent on
average for the period 2008-2012 relative to the base year, which in
most cases is 1990. With an estimated average emission reduction of 16
percent for 2008-2012, they are certain to exceed their target quite
comfortably.
Even including the USA whose emissions in 2008-2010 are 11 percent more
than in 1990, the industrialised countries have on average reduced
greenhouse gas emissions by about 7.5 percent in the period 2008-2010,
compared with 1990. Together they are well on course to achieve the
protocol, target of a collective average decrease in greenhouse gas
emissions of 5.2 percent between 2008 and 2012 compared to the 1990
level. This is mainly due to the decreases in emissions in the countries
whose economies were in transition in the early nineties and to the
recent recession. The headline figure hides large national variations
and several countries will not meet their national target without
emissions trading, or credits purchased from certified emission
reduction projects in developing countries under the UN’s Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM). Overall, the impact of the Kyoto target
reductions is increasingly hidden in the global picture where their
share of CO_2 emissions has dropped from two-thirds to less than half
since 1990.
Although the global mitigation contribution of the Kyoto Protocol is
limited, it can be considered as a small but important first step and it
has stimulated the development of new environmental and energy
diversification policies that in turn have led to many green technology
developments and furthered their penetration into the energy market.
Regional differences: China and India jump while OECD countries increase
OECD countries and Russia
In Europe, CO_2 emissions from industries regulated by the EU Emissions
Trading Scheme (ETS) increased in 2010 by 3 percent, which is
substantially lower than the rebound in output, after an exceptional
decline of CO_2 emissions of 11.8 percent in 2009. In the USA, industry
emissions from fuel combustion increased by 3.8 percent. Total CO_2
emissions in the EU-27 increased by 3 percent to 4.0 billion tonnes (in
the EU-15 by 3 percent to 3.1 billion tonnes) and in the USA by 4
percent to 5.2 billion tonnes, after decreases in 2009 of 4 percent in
the EU-27 and 8 percent in the EU-15 and in the USA. The CO_2 emissions
increased in Japan by 6.5 percent to 1.2 billion tonnes and in Russia by
4 percent to 1.7 billion tonnes, after decreases in 2009 of 13 percent
in Japan and 7 percent in Russia. Total CO_2 emissions of all
industrialised countries that have quantitative greenhouse gas
mitigation targets under the Kyoto Protocol increased in 2010 by 3.5
percent (including the USA that did not ratify the protocol).
China and India
Since 2003, CO_2 emissions in China have doubled, and in India they have
increased by 60 percent. In 2010, Chinese CO_2 emissions jumped by 10
percent to 9.0 billion tonnes, even though China has doubled its
installed wind and solar power capacity for the sixth successive year.
India, where three-quarters of the gross domestic product, goes to meet
domestic demand, has also been relatively unaffected by the credit
crunch and its emissions continued to increase in 2010 by 9 percent to
1.8 billion tonnes of CO_2 . India is now the fourth largest CO_2
emitter, well ahead of Russia that in fifth place and behind the EU-27.
Other developing countries
In 2010 the economies of most other developing countries also recovered
from the recession in 2009, with CO_2 emissions following suit. Brazil
jumped 12 percent (from -5 percent in 2009), South Korea jumped 9
percent (from 1 percent in 2009). In total, CO_2 emissions in these
countries increased on average almost 5 percent in 2010, up from 2
percent in 2009.
Global emissions
In 2010, total global CO_2 emissions reached 33.0 billion tonnes, a 30
percent increase from 2000 and 45 percent more than 1990, the base year
of the Kyoto Protocol. In turn 1990 global emissions were 22.7 billion
tonnes, an increase of 45 percent on the 1970 level of 15.5 billion
tonnes. The twenty years from 1970 to 1990 and the twenty years from
1990-2010 thus saw the same 45 percent growth in global emissions.. The
continuing large variation in national emission growth trends in 2010
resulted in 54 percent of global emissions by developing countries and
43 percent from the mature industrialised countries. The top six
emitting countries, including the EU-27 block, are responsible for 70
percent of total global emissions and the top 25 emitting countries more
than 80 percent of total emissions.
Emissions per capita
Since 1990, CO_2 emissions per capita have increased in China from 2.2
to 6.8 tonne per capita and decreased in the EU-27 from 9.2 to 8.1 tonne
per capita (in EU-15 from 9.1 to 7.9) and from 19.7 to 16.9 tonne per
capita in the USA. Due to its rapid economic development, per capita
emissions in China are quickly approaching levels common in the
industrialised countries of the Annex I group under the Kyoto Protocol.
Present CO_2 emissions per person in China are now equal to those of
Italy and higher than France, although the sectoral shares of
households, transport, power generation, manufacturing industry and the
service sector are quite different. Although per capita emissions of
India have doubled since 1990, with 1.5 tonne per capita they remain
much lower than in industrialised countries. When comparing CO_2 trends
between countries also trends in population numbers should also be taken
into account, since population growth rates differ considerably, also
between Annex I countries.
Trends in renewable energy sources
The annual growth in total renewable energy supply accelerated after
2003 from a few per cent to an average of 6 percent, and 2010 had the
highest growth rate since 1990 of over 7 percent. Renewable energy’s
share of the global energy supply has increased from 7 percent by 2004
to over 8 percent by 2009 and 2010 (excluding traditional biofuels such
as fuelwood and charcoal). The share of nuclear power, the other
non-fossil energy source, remained constant at about 6 percent, for many
years, with nuclear capacity increasing in line with increasing global
energy consumption. Taken together nuclear and renewable energy sources
have led to a decline in overall share of fossil fuels from 88 percent
in 1990 to about 86 percent, the lowest in decades. However, in absolute
terms both energy demand and the share being met by fossil fuel are
growing faster since 1990 than the growth in new renewable energy
sources, which is accelerating, but not yet fast enough to curb the
increasing global CO_2 trend.
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