Wit reference to the text on climate change threats to species extinction: *Climate change poses an increasingly severe range of threats to biodiversity and ecosystem services, with ~10% of species estimated to be at risk of extinction for every 1⁰C rise in global mean temperature.*
This text in the main part of the report is referenced to a CBD Technical Report 'Connecting Biodiversity and Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaptation' Report of the Second Ad Hoc Technical Expert Group on Biodiversity and Climate Change, CBD Technical Series report No. 41. However, when you look into that report you find that the text derives from IPCC AR4! The text in the CBD report reads: *Information in Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) suggests that approximately 10% of species assessed so far will be at an increasingly high risk of extinction for every 1°C rise in global mean temperature, within the range of future scenarios modelled in impacts assessments (typically <5°C global temperature rise).* Chris Vivian chris.viv...@cefas.co.uk On Jan 27, 5:38 pm, Ken Caldeira <kcalde...@carnegie.stanford.edu> wrote: > On a quick read, it seems mostly sensible. A few points (which I should > make formally): > > *Climate change poses an increasingly severe range of threats to > biodiversity and ecosystem services, with ~10% of species estimated to be > at risk of extinction for every 1⁰C rise in global mean temperature.* > > My guess is that this statement is hard to support empirically. The > argument would need to be about rates of change and not amounts of change. > For example, we did not see 30 to 50% of species going extinct as a result > of the 3 to 5 C warming coming out of the last glacial. This statement > might be more supportable if it were phrased in terms of rates of change > (e.g., "for every 1 C per century increase in the rate of warming") which > was probably implicit in the minds of the writers. > > *Enhanced weathering would involve large-scale mining and transportation of > carbonate and silicate rocks, and the spreading of solid or liquid > materials on land or sea with major impacts on terrestrial and coastal > ecosystems and, in some techniques, locally excessive alkalinity in marine > systems.* > > I do not know of any evidence that spreading carbonate or silicate minerals > in the land or sea would have major impacts on terrestrial and coastal > ecosystems. Those of us who have considered using such approaches to > ameliorate effects of ocean acidification on coastal communities have been > somewhat dismayed at the difficulty of obtaining significant impact on > coastal ecosystems -- impacts, by the way, that are anticipated to be > beneficial to these ecosystems. The authors could echo the language from > the afforestation bullet -- i.e., "impacts (postitive and negative) would > depend on the method and scale of implementation." > > *Ocean storage of biomass (e.g. crop residues) would likely have negative > impacts on biodiversity.* > > I do not know of any evidence to support this contention. While it could be > true, I would guess that adoption of this approach would make the seafloor > a more heterogeneous place and bring food to the seafloor. Both of these > things could increase biodiversity. That said, we should not fall into the > trap of thinking that more biodiversity is necessarily good. Introduced > species often increase local biodiversity. The issue is helping natural > ecosystems to persist, not increasing biodiversity. > > *The very fact that the international community is presented with > geo-engineering as a potential option to be further explored is a major > social and cultural issue*.* * > > Is this intended to be an empirically testable statement? If so, how do I > determine what is a major social and cultural issue? War, poverty, justice, > freedom, geoengineering? > > *Climate change could be addressed by a rapid and significant reduction in > greenhouse gas emissions through a transition to a low-carbon economy with > overall positive impacts on biodiversity. Measures to achieve such a > transition would avoid the adverse impacts of climate change on biodiversity > *. > > Even with a hypothetical rapid transition, much more climate change is in > the pipeline. Should read: "Measures to achieve such a transition would > REDUCE adverse impacts of climate change on biodiversity. " > > *The deployment of geo-engineering techniques, if feasible and effective, > could reduce some aspects of climate change and its impacts on > biodiversity. At the same time, geo-engineering techniques are associated > with their own negative impacts on biodiversity*. *The net effect will vary > among techniques and is difficult to predict. > * > Again, these negative effects have not been demonstrated for all possible > deployments. At the very least , "At the same time, DEPLOYMENTS OF > geo-engineering techniques COULD BE associated with their own negative > impacts on biodiversity." > > _______________ > > Ken Caldeira > > Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology > 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA > +1 650 704 7212 > kcalde...@carnegie.stanford.eduhttp://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab @kencaldeira > > *YouTube:* > Crop yields in a geoengineered > climate<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0LCXNoIu-c> > Influence of sea cucumbers on a coral reef CaCO3 > budget<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FSd4zy8iMo> > > On Fri, Jan 27, 2012 at 8:43 AM, Andrew Lockley > <and...@andrewlockley.com>wrote: > > > > > The CBD report on geoengineering is open for a second and final round of > > review comments:http://www.cbd.int/climate/geoengineering/review/ > > > Pls comment, esp on the exec summary > > > A > > > -- > > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > > "geoengineering" group. > > To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. > > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > > geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > > For more options, visit this group at > >http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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