* This email went out to Ken and Oliver earlier but not the full group due to an oversight on my part.
Ken, You say, "Industries that depend on using that atmosphere as a waste dump from greenhouse gases should not be permitted to expand." Let us evaluate this in the context of recent trends in the United States. As consumption reduces due to increased efficiency and other factors, production of oil and gas in the US is in fact increasing (http:// www.nytimes.com/2012/03/23/business/energy-environment/inching-toward-energy-independence-in-america.html?pagewanted=1&hp). The longstanding goal of energy independence and its ramifications for national security are providing an irresistible incentive for policies favouring exploration and drilling on a massive scale. At least the NYTimes article suggests real momentum. As the article states, despite promises in 2008 of combating global warming and discouraging fossil- fuel use, Obama "has opened new federal lands and waters to drilling, trumpeted increases in oil and gas production and de-emphasized the challenges of climate change." A recent op-ed in the same paper by a former diplomat who now teaches courses on energy security does not mention climate change or other environmental issues at all ((http:// www.nytimes.com/2012/03/21/opinion/oil-under-our-noses.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss). What/who/ can prompt substantial and lasting shifts in the politics and policies of energy in the US, and how? Can those who matter be coaxed to look beyond the usual rhetoric of national security, energy independence and self-interest to include responsibility, reflection and re-evaluation? One would imagine elections to provide the opportunity for concerned citizens to make a statement, assuming sufficient mobilisation. But US voters have rather limited choices -- two parties that, despite being separated by a seemingly bottomless abyss, tend to take surprisingly similar positions on this issue. Ninad PS - A potential silver lining is the increase in efficiency. But as David Owen points out (http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/03/19/ the-siren-song-of-energy-efficiency), past increases in efficiency have only fueled consumption as savings were simply reinvested. --- Ninad R. Bondre, Ph.D. Science Editor International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Secretariat The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Box 50005, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden www.igbp.net On Mar 24, 1:43 pm, Ken Caldeira <[email protected]> wrote: > [ disclaimer -- this post is clearly written from the position of being a > concerned citizen and contains normative and prescriptive statements that I > cannot make in my role as a scientist. ] > > I don't think industrial gas production companies in general face a lot of > opposition -- O Morton > > "Industrial gas production companies" face a lot of opposition from me. > > Fracking is generating additional opposition to these companies, and I > think it is just a matter of time before those interested in decreasing > climate risk and those concerned about local consequences of fracking > practices join forces to oppose these companies. > > Natural gas has been getting an undeserved free ride. > > In a time of exponentially increasing demand for energy services, emissions > reduction require that we construct an energy system with exponentially > decreasing emissions per unit energy services provided. Anything less is a > recipe for increased emissions. > > Switching to fuels that emit fractionally less CO2 while energy demand is > increasing exponentially is clearly a path to increasing emissions. > > Industries that depend on using that atmosphere as a waste dump from > greenhouse gases should not be permitted to expand. > > > > > > > > On Sat, Mar 24, 2012 at 1:06 PM, O Morton <[email protected]> wrote: > > A few points as someone at the meeting and, it appears, a gusher... > > > As Tim Fox pointed out in Calgary, the lack of any near-term > > likelihood of large carbon markets paying substantial prices has > > changed the terms of discussion. If DAC is to have any chance near > > term (and my feeling was that the consensus of the people on the APS > > panel that I talked to remains that it really doesn't) then it needs > > to be able to sell carbon dioxide into a market that both values the > > product fairly highly and actually exists. That is what the companies > > are looking with EOR and algae. The hope is that if the companies can > > get established in one of these niches, learning-by-doing effects and > > increased resources for R&D can drive the cost of capture low enough > > to be applicable more widely to climate issues.I would judge that for > > most of the guys working on this the selling CO2 is a means to an end, > > and if the climate relevant end were to disappear, so would their > > interest in and commitment to the technology. That said, we all know > > that people can get into a biz for idealistic reasons and stay out of > > inertia after those reasons dissipate. > > > An exception here is Peter Eisenberger. Peter sees DAC and fuel-making > > as providing a new anthropic loop in the carbon cycle, and seems to > > have little interest in eventual sequestration. I think that's an > > interesting idea if somewhat ahead of its time, for a fairly high > > value of somewhat. > > > When Greg says: > > Why start with a highly artificial and expensive process of > > concentrating molecular CO2 when nature provides much lower cost and > > less risky examples that are already in global scale operation? > > it seems to me that there are two answers. One is "No one says you > > have to. Enhanced weathering is very interesting and I applaud that > > you work on it. But there should be a strong ex ante supposition that > > looking at more methods and technological development pathways is a > > better idea than looking at fewer, and if some people are looking at > > different things then that's their right". The other is that > > concentrated carbon dioxide is a sellable product. I'm not sure how > > hard it would be to get an enhanced weathering scheme certified in a > > way that it could get carbon credits even for a VER market. It will > > obviously never be applicable to a market where having concentrated > > carbon dioxide to sell is part of the point. > > > As the meeting was about DAC, not negative-emission techs more > > generally, doesn't seem that surprising that weathering wasn't an > > issue there. (There was a very interesting poster about direct > > seawater capture.) > > > Dave's point that: > > If DAC earns a reputation as just another industrial gas production > > technique it will encounter well-deserved opposition. > > Is perhaps incomplete. I don't think industrial gas production > > companies in general face a lot of opposition. if DAC becomes an > > industrial gas production enterprise *which trades on climate claims > > it can't back up*, then opposition seems likely to be strong (cf > > biofuels). If it just does its thing, then it's not clear anyone would > > care that much one way or another. > > > All this said, it does seem to me, as I wrote, that if through > > brilliance today's enthusiasts confound the expectations of other > > engineers and bring DAC costs down far enough for some quasi- > > commercial niches those niches are likely to be self limiting. If DAC > > can meet them profitably and they are of any significant size then > > carbon capture approaches applied to high-CO2 point-sources will move > > in and outcompete them. > > > This seems to help in answering Greg's question "why is venture > > capital interested". I don't think it is, very much. Marc Gunther's > > book reports that Arch, the VCs who bought into Lackner's technology, > > are looking into selling the IP and moving on. The other firms seem to > > depend more on angels than VC. Angels have different motives, lack the > > same need for exit strategies, and are more easily moved by non- > > commercial motives. And the risk profile is likely too high for a lot > > of VC types. Remember that a) a significant number of people see the > > APS costs as too low and b) the companies have to beat them by more > > than a factor of four to stand a chance. > > > Hope that helps, o > > > On Mar 23, 2:19 pm, "Hawkins, Dave" <[email protected]> wrote: > > > I participated in the Calgary DAC meeting and in my remarks my primary > > > message was the need to resist the pressure to morph the technology into > > > a commodity CO2 production technique. If DAC earns a reputation as just > > > another industrial gas production technique it will encounter > > > well-deserved opposition. > > > > As to whether DAC has a future as a genuine carbon-negative technology, > > > this is an economic proposition. Currently, it seems pretty expensive > > > but as has been pointed out, the actual costs won't be known until > > > someone tries it in a real-world context and there may be a role for it > > > to address remaining emissions after all the less expensive options have > > > been deployed. In my view, this argues for a modest R&D program to > > > build a few demo plants. > > > > I understand the temptation for today's developers to look at the EOR > > > market as a way to do some learning by doing but I believe it is the > > > wrong path to follow. Such a path would create economic relationships > > > that could wind up impeding the policy changes we need to protect the > > > climate, rather than helping to speed those changes. > > > > From: [email protected] > > > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ken Caldeira > > > Sent: Friday, March 23, 2012 7:17 AM > > > To: [email protected] > > > Cc: Geoengineering; [email protected]; Howard Herzog; John > > > Schellnhuber > > > Subject: Re: [geo] Calgary meeting on Direct Air Capture - thoughts? > > > > "So what is the DAC business model, why is venture capital interested, > > > and what does it have to do with stabilizing air CO2? " -- GH Rau > > > > Greg, I think you hit the nail on the head. > > > > If we think of direct air capture as negative emissions, then air > > > capture is basically a more expensive way to reduce net emissions. > > > > So, the only plausible business model is serving activities where CO2 is > > > needed where direct air capture may be able to provide the CO2 at lower > > > cost (or at least more conveniently), i.e., the goal is to profit > > > primarily by providing CO2 as a commodity. > > > > You mention enhanced oil recovery (EOR), which of course involves a net > > > flux of carbon from geologic formations to the atmosphere. Another > > > possible application might be military applications where you want to > > > make jet fuels on a nuclear powered aircraft carrier using atmospheric > > > CO2 and seawater. > > > > If the above framing is correct, then direct air capture is more about > > > seeking profits from oil companies and the military-industrial complex > > > than it is about reducing climate risk. > > > > As the IPCC concluded in its 2005 Special Report on Carbon Capture and > > > Storage, there just aren't enough products that need CO2 as an input for > > > provision of CO2 for industrial uses to be a significant contributor to > > > climate risk reduction. > > > > If EOR is really a primary target application, then direct air capture > > > is more about increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations than it is about > > > decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations; it is more about increasing > > > climate risk than decreasing climate risk. > > > > It would be interesting to hear from the direct air capture companies > > > whether they see themselves as being in the business of climate-risk > > > reduction, and if they answer in the affirmative, it would be > > > interesting hear their rationale. > > > > _______________ > > > Ken Caldeira > > > > Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology > > > 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA > > > +1 650 704 7212 [email protected]:// > > dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab @kencaldeira > > > > YouTube: > > > Climate change and the transition from coal to low-carbon electricity > > > <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9LaYCbYCxo> > > > Crop yields in a geoengineered climate > > > <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0LCXNoIu-c> > > > > On Fri, Mar 23, 2012 at 3:35 AM, RAU greg <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > Ron, > > > > Thanks for asking: > > > > 1) Wasn't invited to Calgary. > > > > 2) As Socolow et al and more recently House et al. PNAS 108:20428-20433 > > > <tel:20428%E2%80%9320433> have shown, if your game is removing CO2 from > > > air, concentrating molecular CO2 from air is probably the last thing you > > > want to do > > ... > > read more » -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.
