No lumps of coal in my Xmas stocking this morning, but unfortunately more coal and CO2 are in our future. -Greg
>> >> >>> >>> Coal’s share of global energy mix to continue rising, with coal closing in >>> on oil as world’s top energy source by 2012. >>> >>> ".....the world will burn around 1.2 billion more tonnes of coal per year >>> by 2017 compared to today – equivalent to the current coal consumption of >>> Russia and the United States combined. Coal’s share of the global energy >>> mix continues to grow each year, and if no changes are made to current >>> policies, coal will catch oil within a decade.” >>> >>> >>> >>> IEA’s Medium-Term Coal Market Report sees coal demand increasing in nearly >>> every region of the world except US, where shale gas is displacing coal >>> >>> 17 December 2012 >>> >>> Coal’s share of the global energy mix continues to rise, and by 2017 coal >>> will come close to surpassing oil as the world’s top energy source, the >>> International Energy Agency (IEA) said today as it released its annual >>> Medium-Term Coal Market Report (MCMR). >>> >>> Although the growth rate of coal slows from the breakneck pace of the last >>> decade, global coal consumption by 2017 stands at 4.32 billion tonnes of >>> oil equivalent (btoe), versus around 4.40 btoe for oil, based on IEA >>> medium-term projections. The IEA expects that coal demand will increase in >>> every region of the world except in the United States, where coal is being >>> pushed out by natural gas. >>> >>> “Thanks to abundant supplies and insatiable demand for power from emerging >>> markets, coal met nearly half of the rise in global energy demand during >>> the first decade of the 21st Century,” said IEA Executive Director Maria >>> van der Hoeven. “This report sees that trend continuing. In >>> >>> China and India lead the growth in coal consumption over the next five >>> years. The report says China will surpass the rest of the world in coal >>> demand during the outlook period, while India will become the largest >>> seaborne coal importer and second-largest consumer, surpassing the United >>> States. >>> >>> The report notes that in the absence of a high carbon price, only fierce >>> competition from low-priced gas can effectively reduce coal demand. “The US >>> experience suggests that a more efficient gas market, marked by flexible >>> pricing and fueled by indigenous unconventional resources that are produced >>> sustainably, can reduce coal use, CO2 emissions and consumers’ electricity >>> bills, without harming energy security,” said Ms. van der Hoeven. “Europe, >>> China and other regions should take note.” >>> >>> She noted that the report’s forecasts are based on a troubling assumption, >>> namely, that carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) will not be available >>> during the outlook period. “CCS technologies are not taking off as once >>> expected, which means CO2 emissions will keep growing substantially. >>> Without progress in CCS, and if other countries cannot replicate the US >>> experience and reduce coal demand, coal faces the risk of a potential >>> climate policy backlash,” she said. >>> >>> As US coal demand declines, more US coal is going to Europe, where low CO2 >>> prices and high gas prices are increasing the competitiveness of coal in >>> the power generation system. This trend, however, is close to peaking, and >>> coal demand by 2017 in Europe is projected to drop to levels slightly above >>> those in 2011, due to increasing renewable generation and decommissioning >>> of old coal plants. >>> >>> Amid concern about the impact of Chinese uncertainty on coal markets, the >>> report offers a Chinese Slowdown Case. This scenario shows that even if >>> Chinese GDP growth were to slow to a 4.6% average over the period, coal >>> demand would still increase both globally and in China – indicating that >>> coal demand is not likely to stop growing even with more bearish economic >>> perspectives. >>> >>> Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 is part of the IEA’s medium-term market >>> report series, which also includes editions on renewable energy, natural >>> gas and oil. With these four reports, the IEA offers a sound and coherent >>> view of the main drivers of energy markets. MCMR offers a complete view of >>> recent trends and projections to 2017 on coal demand, supply and trade and >>> complements the coal chapter of the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook, >>> which has a longer-term focus. >>> >>> MCMR is for sale at IEA bookshop. >>> >>> Factsheet for Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012. >>> >>> “How to fix the 21st Century’s dirty engine of growth” – a Huffington Post >>> commentary by IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven. >>> >>> IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven's opening remarks at the >>> Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 news conference. >>> >>> Recording of Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 news conference. >>> >>> Slides featuring data from Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012. >>> >>> Homepage photo: © Shutterstock.com >>> >>> Sent from my iPad -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. 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