As a change of pace from Clivegate, another "modern classic" article that sets the context for geoengineering.
Williams et al. create a gridded map of the world and project temperature/humidity values for each grid cell. In as much as 39% of the world's surface area we will be experiencing combinations of temperature and humidity that are novel in that they are not experienced at present (which is the only time period that world civilization is adapted for). Similarly, climates that we *are* accustomed to will be disappearing, as in no longer present. In other words, someone is already playing with the thermostat, and there are a lot of rooms that are going to be very uncomfortable! - John W. Williams, - Stephen T. Jackson, - and John E. Kutzbach Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 ADPNAS 2007 104 (14) 5738-5742; published ahead of print March 27, 2007,doi: 10.1073/pnas.0606292104 http://www.pnas.org/content/104/14/5738.full.pdf+html Key risks associated with projected climate trends for the 21st century include the prospects of future climate states with no current analog and the disappearance of some extant climates. Because climate is a primary control on species distributions and ecosystem processes, novel 21st-century climates may promote formation of novel species associations and other ecological surprises, whereas the disappearance of some extant climates increases risk of extinction for species with narrow geographic or climatic distributions and disruption of existing communities. Here we analyze multimodel ensembles for the A2 and B1 emission scenarios produced for the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with the goal of identifying regions projected to experience (i) high magnitudes of local climate change, (ii) development of novel 21st-century climates, and/or (iii) the disappearance of extant climates. Novel climates are projected to develop primarily in the tropics and subtropics, whereas disappearing climates are concentrated in tropical montane regions and the poleward portions of continents*. Under the **high-end A2 scenario, 12–39% and 10–48% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface may respectively experience novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD.*Corresponding projections for the low-end B1 scenario are 4–20% and 4–20%. Dispersal limitations increase the risk that species will experience the loss of extant climates or the occurrence of novel climates. There is a close correspondence between regions with globally disappearing climates and previously identified biodiversity hotspots; for these regions, standard conservation solutions (e.g., assisted migration and networked reserves) may be insufficient to preserve biodiversity. --- Fred Zimmerman Geoengineering IT! Bringing together the worlds of geoengineering and information technology GE NewsFilter: http://geoengineeringIT.net:8080 -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
