And just to add some perspective, EIA now estimates that CO2 emission in 2040 will be 45 GT CO2/yr relative to 31 GT/yr in 2010*. So assumming a mean emissions rate during that period of 38 GT/yr and multiplying by 30 years yields a cummulative emissions of 1100 GT CO2. The Davis/Caldeira scheme (no new ff infrastucture) would yield "only" about 500 GT CO2 2010-2060. This amount (in only 50 years) would still be about 1/4 of total emissions 1750-present (2000 GT CO2)**, while the preceding EIA BAU estimate for total emissions over just the next 30 years will be more than 50% of total emissions that have occurred over the past 260 years. So barring draconian CO2 emissions reduction of the Davis/Caldeira type, the planet is screwed unless alternatives to CO2 emissions reduction are shown safe, cost-effective, and are deployed; SRM, CDR, and/or whatever. I'm just say'n... Greg * http://www.ciol.com/ciol/news/192448/world-energy-consumption-grow-56-percent-2010-2040?goback=%2Egde_2792503_member_261675789
** http://www.stopgreensuicide.com/Ch6_Carbonbio_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch06_All_Final.pdf ________________________________ From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com [geoengineering@googlegroups.com] on behalf of Ken Caldeira [kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu] Sent: Thursday, September 12, 2013 7:43 AM To: Bill Fulkerson Cc: Andrew Lockley; geoengineering Subject: Re: [geo] Linking solar geoengineering and emissions reduction That's right .... Most of the climate risk comes from devices yet to be built (see attached paper). http://www.sciencemag.org/content/329/5997/1330.full http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/Caldeira_research/Davis_Caldeira2.html _______________ Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution for Science Dept of Global Ecology 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA +1 650 704 7212 kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu<mailto:kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu> http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab @kencaldeira On Wed, Sep 11, 2013 at 9:40 PM, Fulkerson, William <wf...@utk.edu<mailto:wf...@utk.edu>> wrote: Dear Ken: I love your scheme. 1. Don't shut off current GHG emitters faster than they are being curtailed. 2. Don't allow more GHG emitting devices to be built. 3 Use Geo as a last resort, as a sort of hand on the brake In theory, very sensible. Do I have it right? I must think about it, and ask some questions. The best, Bill From: Ken Caldeira <kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu<mailto:kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu>> Reply-To: "kcalde...@gmail.com<mailto:kcalde...@gmail.com>" <kcalde...@gmail.com<mailto:kcalde...@gmail.com>> Date: Wednesday, September 11, 2013 1:51 PM To: Andrew Lockley <andrew.lock...@gmail.com<mailto:andrew.lock...@gmail.com>> Cc: Google Group <geoengineering@googlegroups.com<mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com>> Subject: Re: [geo] Linking solar geoengineering and emissions reduction Note that I did not require decarbonization of the economy as a pre-requisite for deployment as my proposal allows existing CO2-emitting devices to continue being used. I merely required that we stop building new CO2-emitting devices. My point is that if climate change is enough of an emergency to require rapid deployment of solar geoengineering then it is also enough of an emergency to stop building devices that will exacerbate that emergency. If we are doing solar geoengineering at the same time as we are building new fossil-fueled power plants that use the atmosphere as a waste dump, how do you assure that the solar geoengineering system does not facilitate continued production of those devices? _______________ Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution for Science Dept of Global Ecology 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA +1 650 704 7212<tel:%2B1%20650%20704%207212> kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu<mailto:kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu> http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab @kencaldeira On Wed, Sep 11, 2013 at 1:25 PM, Andrew Lockley <andrew.lock...@gmail.com<mailto:andrew.lock...@gmail.com>> wrote: Ken We need to control temperatures far more quickly than we can hope to decarbonise the economy. Are you seriously trying to argue that every car factory in the world needs to close before we can do any SRM at all? That seems entirely implausible. Perhaps more sensible to suggest that emissions growth be capped (possibly at zero) before geoengineering starts. As I see it the 'buy time' argument for SRM is a strong one. We need to stop temperatures increasing *whilst * we decarbonise. A On Sep 11, 2013 5:36 PM, "Ken Caldeira" <kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu<mailto:kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu>> wrote: We do not want to be in a situation where a solar geoengineering system is used to enable continued increases in CO2 emissions. Therefore, a reasonable demand is that no new smokestacks or tailpipes be built after a solar geoengineering system is deployed. Another way of phrasing this is to demand that new construction of all new CO2-emitting devices cease prior to any solar geoengineering system deployment. This would help address the concern that solar geoengineering could provide cover for continued expansion of CO2-emitting industries. Norms that would prevent simultaneous solar geoengineering deployment and increasing CO2 emissions would help diminish the likelihood of bad outcomes and could help broaden political support for solar geoengineering research. -- This would limit deployment of solar geoengineering systems to the case of "catastrophic" outcomes and would not permit use of solar geoengineering for "peak shaving" amid promises of future reductions in CO2 emissions. Thus, this proposal does have a substantive implications for "peak shaving" strategies. -- I am floating this idea without being certain that the formulation presented here is the best possible formulation. _______________ Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution for Science Dept of Global Ecology 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA +1 650 704 7212<tel:%2B1%20650%20704%207212> kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu<mailto:kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu> http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab @kencaldeira -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com<mailto:geoengineering%2bunsubscr...@googlegroups.com>. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com<mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com>. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. 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