http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.296/abstract

Climate geoengineering: issues of path-dependence and socio-technical
lock-in

Rose C. Cairns*

27 JUN 2014

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

As academic and policy interest in climate geoengineering grows, the
potential irreversibility of technological developments in this domain has
been raised as a pressing concern. The literature on socio-technical
lock-in and path dependence is illuminating in helping to situate current
concerns about climate geoengineering and irreversibility in the context of
academic understandings of historical socio-technical development and
persistence. This literature provides a wealth of material illustrating the
pervasiveness of positive feedbacks of various types (from the discursive
to the material) leading to complex socio-technical entanglements which may
resist change and become inflexible even in the light of evidence of
negative impacts. With regard to climate geoengineering, there are concerns
that geoengineering technologies might contribute so-called ‘carbon
lock-in’, or become irreversibly ‘locked-in’ themselves. In particular, the
scale of infrastructures that geoengineering interventions would require,
and the issue of the so-called ‘termination effect’ have been discussed in
these terms. Despite the emergent and somewhat ill-defined nature of the
field, some authors also suggest that the extant framings of geoengineering
in academic and policy literatures may already demonstrate features
recognizable as forms of cognitive lock-in, likely to have profound
implications for future developments in this area. While the concepts of
path-dependence and lock-in are the subject of ongoing academic critique,
by drawing analytical attention to these pervasive processes of positive
feedback and entanglement, this literature is highly relevant to current
debates around geoengineering.

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