Poster's note : tropospheric aerosol mechanisms have been postulated as
levers for regional geoengineering programs. The quantification of their
effects, as below, aids intervention design.

http://www.nature.com/srep/2014/141106/srep06929/full/srep06929.html

Attribution of the United States “warming hole”: Aerosol indirect effect
and precipitable water vapor

Shaocai Yu, Kiran Alapaty, Rohit Mathur, Jonathan Pleim, Yuanhang Zhang,
Chris Nolte, Brian Eder,Kristen Foley & Tatsuya Nagashima

Scientific Reports 4, Article number: 6929
doi:10.1038/srep06929

Published 06 November 2014

Aerosols can influence the climate indirectly by acting as cloud
condensation nuclei and/or ice nuclei, thereby modifying cloud optical
properties. In contrast to the widespread global warming, the central and
south central United States display a noteworthy overall cooling trend
during the 20thcentury, with an especially striking cooling trend in
summertime daily maximum temperature (Tmax) (termed the U.S. “warming
hole”). Here we used observations of temperature, shortwave cloud forcing
(SWCF), longwave cloud forcing (LWCF), aerosol optical depth and
precipitable water vapor as well as global coupled climate models to
explore the attribution of the “warming hole”. We find that the observed
cooling trend in summer Tmax can be attributed mainly to SWCF due to
aerosols with offset from the greenhouse effect of precipitable water
vapor. A global coupled climate model reveals that the observed “warming
hole” can be produced only when the aerosol fields are simulated with a
reasonable degree of accuracy as this is necessary for accurate simulation
of SWCF over the region. These results provide compelling evidence of the
role of the aerosol indirect effect in cooling regional climate on the
Earth. Our results reaffirm that LWCF can warm both winter Tmax and Tmin.

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