http://www.kiel-earth-institute.de/CDR_Model_Intercomparison_Project.html
CDR Model Intercomparison Project Priority Program Climate Engineering Climate Engineering Research Symposium Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDR-MIP) Motivation Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate threatening “severe, pervasive and irreversible” impacts. Inadequate emissions reduction had lead to increased attention on Climate Intervention (CI) – deliberate interventions to counter or reduce the impact of climate change by either modifying the Earth’s radiation budget (Solar Radiation Management; SRM), or removing the primary greenhouse gas (CO2) from the atmosphere – Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). The majority of future scenarios that do not exceed 2°C warming by 2100 include CDR methods. At present, there is little consensus on the impacts and efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. In response to this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDR-MIP) has been proposed. This project aims to bring together a suite of Earth System Models (ESMs) and Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) in a common framework to explore the potential, risks, and challenges of different types of proposed CDR. The key questions that will be addressed (but not limited to) as part of CDR-MIP include: 1) Climate “reversibility”, in the context of using CDR to return high future atmospheric CO2 concentrations to a lower (e.g. present day or pre-industrial) level. 2) Potential efficacy, feedbacks, time scales, and side effects of different CDR methods It is anticipated that this be the first stage of a continuing project exploring CDR. CDR-MIP will allow and encourages development of other (future) experiments and scenarios. Potential future experiments could include Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) or ocean fertilization. It is anticipated that future collaborations could include GeoMIP (a Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project focusing on SRM) for experiments combining SRM and CDR approaches. Approach The first stage of this project will focus on the shorter-term impacts of CDR. To quantify the impacts and feedbacks on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels requires an interactive carbon cycle, driven by emissions to the atmosphere. The first stage of CDR-MIP will undertake four sets of experiments; we would strongly encourage multiple ensemble members but these would not be required: C1) A Diagnostic, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiment that would involve 1% increase in atmospheric CO2, from the pre-industrial until 4xCO2, and then a 1% removal rate until pre-industrial levels were reached, and a corresponding control simulation over the same period (held at 4xCO2). C2) Direct–air capture simulations: Under the high Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) emissions (driven from the pre-industrial with observed emissions) the permanent removal of CO2 from the atmosphere in 2020 will commence, increasing until an annual net removal of 5 GtC yr-1 is achieved in the year 2050, and maintained thereafter until 2100. The control simulations would follow high SSP emissions until 2100. This scenario will be designed to complement C4MIP runs. Optional: C2-S. In 2070 the 5 GtC yr-1 removal would cease, and the simulations would continue for another 30 years until 2100. C3) Afforestation: Driven from the pre-industrial with observed emissions and using future emissions from a high SSP emission scenario (determined in consultation with ScenarioMIP), a land use change scenario from an alternative RCP-SSP combination that has greater afforestation than the original land use projection is imposed. The control simulations would follow high SSP emissions until 2100. Detailed experimental design, including management of ESMs with/without dynamic vegetation to be finalized later. Our proposed afforestation experiment is the same as the LUMIP Phase Two (Tier 1) experiment ( https://www2.cgd.ucar.edu/research/mips/lumip). C4) Ocean alkalinization: Under the high SSP emissions (driven from the pre-industrial with observed emissions) starting in 2020, add 0.25 Pmol yr-1 of alkalinity to the ocean for an 80-year period. The control simulations would follow high SSP emissions until 2100. Optional: C4-S. In 2070 the alkalinity addition would cease, and the simulations would continue for another 30 years until 2100. Experiments will be designed to ensure a good fit with the impacts community (e.g. ISIMIP). A more detailed description of the experiments and scientific questions can be found at: *CDR-MIP_detailed_description.pdf** All groups will be encouraged to undertake all simulations, although individual groups may not be able to complete some experiments and this would not preclude participation. We also encourage those running Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICS) to participate and contribute when applicable. The potential to modify or extend the simulations to harness the capability of EMICs to conduct multiple or longer time-scale simulations is open for discussion. It is anticipated that the model simulations will be publically available and hosted on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). To date several modeling groups have been approached and have indicated that they are willing to participate in such a project. Project Leaders: David P. Keller ([email protected]) Andrew Lenton ([email protected]) Vivian Scott ([email protected]) Naomi E. Vaughan ([email protected]) Endorsement This project will initially seek endorsement from the World Climate Research Program and the Global Carbon Project (GCP). Timetable 7-10 July 2015: Poster presentations of CDR-MIP draft experiments at Climate Engineering Research Symposium, Berlin (D. Keller) and Our Common Future Under Climate Change, Paris (N. Vaughan) September 2015: Preliminary 2-day Meeting to be held in Germany to finalize experimental design. Writing team to stay one extra day. September 2015: Circulation of final specifications for CDR-MIP 9 October 2015: Submission to EOS of an article based on the CDR-MIP project and workshop March 2016: First official workshop of CDR-MIP participants -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. 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