http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature14565.html

Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years

M. Sigl, et al.

Nature (2015) doi:10.1038/nature14565

08 July 2015

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these
contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of
atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and
subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve
these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high
latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature
variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our
results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed
from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of
Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to
constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude
of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the
largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates
volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics,
famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while
allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic
forcing.

References

Robock, A. Volcanic eruptions and climate. Rev. Geophys. 38, 191–219 (2000)
CASISIArticle
Hanhijärvi, S., Tingley, M. P. & Korhola, A. Pairwise comparisons to
reconstruct mean temperature in the Arctic Atlantic Region over the last
2,000 years. Clim. Dyn. 41, 2039–2060 (2013)
Article
PAGES 2k Consortium. Continental-scale temperature variability during the
past two millennia. Nature Geosci. 6, 503 (2013)
CASArticle
Mann, M. E. et al. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global
surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proc. Natl
Acad. Sci. USA 105, 13252–13257 (2008)
PubMedArticle
Usoskin, I. G. A history of solar activity over millennia. Living Rev. Sol.
Phys 10, 1 (2013)
Gao, C. C., Robock, A. & Ammann, C. Volcanic forcing of climate over the
past 1500 years: an improved ice core-based index for climate models. J.
Geophys. Res. 113, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239 (2008)
Crowley, T. J. & Unterman, M. B. Technical details concerning development
of a 1200-yr proxy index of global volcanism. Earth System Sci. Data 5,
187–197 (2013)
Article
Mann, M. E., Fuentes, J. D. & Rutherford, S. Underestimation of volcanic
cooling in tree-ring-based reconstructions of hemispheric temperatures.
Nature Geosci. 5, 202–205 (2012)
CASArticle
Mann, M. E., Rutherford, S., Schurer, A., Tett, S. F. B. & Fuentes, J. D.
Discrepancies between the modeled and proxy-reconstructed response to
volcanic forcing over the past millennium: implications and possible
mechanisms. J. Geophys. Res. 118, 7617–7627 (2013)
Schurer, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., Mann, M. E., Tett, S. F. B. & Phipps, S. J.
Separating forced from chaotic climate variability over the past
millennium. J. Clim. 26, 6954–6973 (2013)
ISIArticle
Anchukaitis, K. J. et al. Tree rings and volcanic cooling. Nature Geosci.
5, 836–837 (2012)
CASArticle
Büntgen, U. et al. Extraterrestrial confirmation of tree-ring dating.
Nature Clim. Change 4, 404–405 (2014)
Article
Esper, J., Büntgen, U., Luterbacher, J. & Krusic, P. J. Testing the
hypothesis of post-volcanic missing rings in temperature sensitive
dendrochronological data. Dendrochronologia 31, 216–222 (2013)
Article
D’Arrigo, R., Wilson, R. & Anchukaitis, K. J. Volcanic cooling signal in
tree ring temperature records for the past millennium. J. Geophys. Res.
118, 9000–9010 (2013)
Plummer, C. T. et al. An independently dated 2000-yr volcanic record from
Law Dome, East Antarctica, including a new perspective on the dating of the
1450s CE eruption of Kuwae, Vanuatu. Clim. Past 8, 1929–1940 (2012)
Article
Sigl, M. et al. A new bipolar ice core record of volcanism from WAIS Divide
and NEEM and implications for climate forcing of the last 2000 years. J.
Geophys. Res. 118, 1151–1169 (2013)
CAS
Sigl, M. et al. Insights from Antarctica on volcanic forcing during the
Common Era. Nature Clim. Change 4, 693–697 (2014)
Article
Esper, J. et al. European summer temperature response to annually dated
volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries. Bull. Volcanol. 75, 736
(2013)
Article
Douglass, D. H. & Knox, R. S. Climate forcing by the volcanic eruption of
Mount Pinatubo. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L05710 (2005)
Article
Baillie, M. G. L. Proposed re-dating of the European ice core chronology by
seven years prior to the 7th century AD. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L15813
(2008)
Article
Baillie, M. G. L. & McAneney, J. Tree ring effects and ice core acidities
clarify the volcanic record of the 1st millennium. Clim. Past 11, 105–114
(2015)
Article
Miyake, F., Nagaya, K., Masuda, K. & Nakamura, T. A signature of cosmic-ray
increase in AD 774–775 from tree rings in Japan. Nature 486, 240–242 (2012)
CASPubMedArticle
Miyake, F., Masuda, K. & Nakamura, T. Another rapid event in the carbon-14
content of tree rings. Nature Commun. 4,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/Ncomms2783 (2013)
Usoskin, I. G. et al. The AD775 cosmic event revisited: the Sun is to
blame. Astron. Astrophys. 552, http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201321080
(2013)
Jull, A. J. T. et al. Excursions in the 14C record at A. D. 774–775 in tree
rings from Russia and America. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 3004–3010 (2014)
CASArticle
Güttler, D. et al. Rapid increase in cosmogenic 14C in AD 775 measured in
New Zealand kauri trees indicates short-lived increase in 14C production
spanning both hemispheres. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 411, 290–297 (2015)
CASArticle
Miyake, F. et al. Cosmic ray event of AD 774–775 shown in quasi-annual 10Be
data from the Antarctic Dome Fuji ice core. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 84–89
(2015)
CASArticle
Webber, W. R., Higbie, P. R. & McCracken, K. G. Production of the
cosmogenic isotopes H-3, Be-7, Be-10, and Cl-36 in the Earth's atmosphere
by solar and galactic cosmic rays. J. Geophys. Res. 112, A10106 (2007)
CASArticle
Masarik, J. & Beer, J. An updated simulation of particle fluxes and
cosmogenic nuclide production in the Earth's atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res.
114, D11103 (2009)
CASArticle
Vinther, B. M. et al. A synchronized dating of three Greenland ice cores
throughout the Holocene. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D13102 (2006)
Article
Lavigne, F. et al. Source of the great A.D. 1257 mystery eruption unveiled,
Samalas volcano, Rinjani Volcanic Complex, Indonesia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci.
USA 110, 16742–16747 (2013)
CASPubMedArticle
Winstrup, M. et al. An automated approach for annual layer counting in ice
cores. Clim. Past 8, 1881–1895 (2012)
Article
McCormick, M. et al. Climate change during and after the Roman Empire:
reconstructing the past from scientific and historical evidence. J.
Interdisc. Hist. 43, 169–220 (2012)
Article
Salzer, M. W. & Hughes, M. K. Bristlecone pine tree rings and volcanic
eruptions over the last 5000 yr. Quat. Res. 67, 57–68 (2007)
Article
Esper, J., Duthorn, E., Krusic, P. J., Timonen, M. & Buntgen, U. Northern
European summer temperature variations over the Common Era from integrated
tree-ring density records. J. Quat. Sci. 29, 487–494 (2014)
Article
Crowley, T. J. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science
289, 270–277 (2000)
CASISIPubMedArticle
Driscoll, S., Bozzo, A., Gray, L. J., Robock, A. & Stenchikov, G. Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following
volcanic eruptions. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D17105 (2012)
Schneider, D. P., Ammann, C. M., Otto-Bliesner, B. L. & Kaufman, D. S.
Climate response to large, high-latitude and low-latitude volcanic
eruptions in the Community Climate System Model. J. Geophys. Res. 114,
D15101 (2009)
Article
Zanchettin, D. et al. Inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the sea-ice response
to volcanic forcing simulated by MPI-ESM (COSMOS-Mill). Earth Syst. Dyn. 5,
223–242 (2014)
Article
Stothers, R. B. Mystery cloud of Ad-536. Nature 307, 344–345 (1984)
ISIArticle
Larsen, L. B. et al. New ice core evidence for a volcanic cause of the AD
536 dust veil. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L04708 (2008)
CASArticle
Büntgen, U. et al. 2500 years of European climate variability and human
susceptibility. Science 331, 578–582 (2011)
CASPubMedArticle
Esper, J. et al. Orbital forcing of tree-ring data. Nature Clim. Change 2,
862–866 (2012)
Article
D'Arrigo, R. et al. 1738 years of Mongolian temperature variability
inferred from a tree-ring width chronology of Siberian pine. Geophys. Res.
Lett. 28, 543–546 (2001)
Article
Zhang, Z. B. et al. Periodic climate cooling enhanced natural disasters and
wars in China during AD 10–1900. Proc. R. Soc. B 277, 3745–3753 (2010)
PubMedArticle
Stothers, R. B. Volcanic dry fogs, climate cooling, and plague pandemics in
Europe and the Middle East. Clim. Change 42, 713–723 (1999)
Article
Stenseth, N. C. et al. Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation.
Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 103, 13110–13115 (2006)
CASPubMedArticle
Dull, R. A. Evidence for forest clearance, agriculture, and human-induced
erosion in Precolumbian El Salvador. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 97, 127–141
(2007)
Article
Taylor, R. E. & Southon, J. Reviewing the Mid-First Millennium BC C-14
“warp” using C-14/bristlecone pine data. Nucl. Instrum. Meth. B 294,
440–443 (2013)
CASArticle
Dahl-Jensen, D. et al. Eemian interglacial reconstructed from a Greenland
folded ice core. Nature 493, 489–494 (2013)
CASPubMedArticle
McConnell, J. R. Continuous ice-core chemical analyses using inductively
coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Environ. Sci. Technol. 36, 7–11 (2002)
CASPubMedArticle
McConnell, J. R. & Edwards, R. Coal burning leaves toxic heavy metal legacy
in the Arctic. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 12140–12144 (2008)
PubMedArticle
Pasteris, D. R. et al. Seasonally resolved ice core records from West
Antarctica indicate a sea ice source of sea-salt aerosol and a biomass
burning source of ammonium. J. Geophys. Res. 119, 9168–9182 (2014)
CAS
Abram, N. J., Mulvaney, R. & Arrowsmith, C. Environmental signals in a
highly resolved ice core from James Ross Island, Antarctica. J. Geophys.
Res. 116, D20116 (2011)
CASArticle
Kaufmann, P. R. et al. An improved continuous flow analysis system for
high-resolution field measurements on ice cores. Environ. Sci. Technol. 42,
8044–8050 (2008)
CASPubMedArticle
Bigler, M. et al. Optimization of High-Resolution Continuous Flow Analysis
for Transient Climate Signals in Ice Cores. Environ. Sci. Technol. 45,
4483–4489 (2011)
CASPubMedArticle
Ruth, U., Wagenbach, D., Steffensen, J. P. & Bigler, M. Continuous record
of microparticle concentration and size distribution in the central
Greenland NGRIP ice core during the last glacial period. J. Geophys. Res.
108 (2003)
Woodruff, T. E., Welten, K. C., Caffee, M. W. & Nishiizumi, K.
Interlaboratory comparison of Be-10 concentrations in two ice cores from
Central West Antarctica. Nucl. Instrum. Meth. B 294, 77–80 (2013)
CASArticle
Berggren, A. M. et al. Variability of Be-10 and delta O-18 in snow pits
from Greenland and a surface traverse from Antarctica. Nucl. Instrum. Meth.
B 294, 568–572 (2013)
CASArticle
Bisiaux, M. M. et al. Changes in black carbon deposition to Antarctica from
two high-resolution ice core records, 1850-2000 AD. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12,
4107–4115 (2012)
CASArticle
Pasteris, D., McConnell, J. R., Edwards, R., Isaksson, E. & Albert, M. R.
Acidity decline in Antarctic ice cores during the Little Ice Age linked to
changes in atmospheric nitrate and sea salt concentrations. J. Geophys.
Res. 119, 5640–5652 (2014)
CAS
Rasmussen, S. O. et al. A first chronology for the North Greenland Eemian
Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core. Clim. Past 9, 2713–2730 (2013)
ISIArticle
Coulter, S. E. et al. Holocene tephras highlight complexity of volcanic
signals in Greenland ice cores. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D21303 (2012)
Barbante, C. et al. Greenland ice core evidence of the 79 AD Vesuvius
eruption. Clim. Past 9, 1221–1232 (2013)
Article
Clausen, H. B. et al. A comparison of the volcanic records over the past
4000 years from the Greenland Ice Core Project and Dye 3 Greenland Ice
Cores. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 26707–26723 (1997)
CASISIArticle
Rolandi, G., Paone, A., Di Lascio, M. & Stefani, G. The 79 AD eruption of
Somma: the relationship between the date of the eruption and the southeast
tephra dispersion. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 169, 87–98 (2008)
CASArticle
Sun, C. Q. et al. Ash from Changbaishan millennium eruption recorded in
Greenland ice: implications for determining the eruption's timing and
impact. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 694–701 (2014)
Article
Xu, J. D. et al. Climatic impact of the millennium eruption of Changbaishan
volcano in China: new insights from high-precision radiocarbon wiggle-match
dating. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 54–59 (2013)
Article
Deirmendjian, D. On volcanic and other particulate turbidity anomalies.
Adv. Geophys. 16, 267–296 (1973)
Vollmer, M. Effects of absorbing particles on coronas and glories. Appl.
Opt. 44, 5658–5666 (2005)
PubMedArticle
Sachs, A. J. & Hunger, H. Astronomical Diaries and Related Texts from
Babylonia Vol.3 Diaries from 164 B.C. to 61 B.C. (Verlag der
Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, 1996)
Wittmann, A. D. & Xu, Z. T. A catalog of sunspot observations from 165 BC
to AD 1684. Astron. Astrophys. (Suppl.) 70, 83–94 (1987)
Rasmussen, S. O. et al. A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last
glacial termination. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D06102 (2006)
CASArticle
Herron, M. M., Herron, S. L. & Langway, C. C. Climatic signal of ice melt
features in southern Greenland. Nature 293, 389–391 (1981)
ISIArticle
Gao, C. H., Oman, L., Robock, A. & Stenchikov, G. L. Atmospheric volcanic
loading derived from bipolar ice cores: accounting for the spatial
distribution of volcanic deposition. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D09109 (2007)
Briffa, K. R. et al. Reassessing the evidence for tree-growth and inferred
temperature change during the Common Era in Yamalia, northwest Siberia.
Quat. Sci. Rev. 72, 83–107 (2013)
Article
Grudd, H. Tornetrask tree-ring width and density AD 500-2004: a test of
climatic sensitivity and a new 1500-year reconstruction of north
Fennoscandian summers. Clim. Dyn. 31, 843–857 (2008)
Article
Salzer, M. W., Bunn, A. G., Graham, N. E. & Hughes, M. K. Five millennia of
paleotemperature from tree-rings in the Great Basin, USA. Clim. Dyn. 42,
1517–1526 (2014)
Article
McMahon, S. M., Parker, G. G. & Miller, D. R. Evidence for a recent
increase in forest growth. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 3611–3615 (2010)
PubMedArticle
Salzer, M. W., Hughes, M. K., Bunn, A. G. & Kipfmueller, K. F. Recent
unprecedented tree-ring growth in bristlecone pine at the highest
elevations and possible causes. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 20348–20353
(2009)
PubMedArticle
Briffa, K. R. et al. Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth to
temperature at high northern latitudes. Nature 391, 678–682 (1998)
CASISIArticle
Rohde, R. et al. A new estimate of the average land surface temperature
spanning 1753 to 2011. Geoinform. Geostat. Overview 1,
http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2327-4581.1000101 (2013)
Mass, C. F. & Portman, D. A. Major volcanic eruptions and climate: a
critical evaluation. J. Clim. 2, 566–593 (1989)
Article
Fritts, H. C., Lofgren, G. R. & Gordon, G. A. Variations in climate since
1602 as reconstructed from tree rings. Quat. Res. 12, 18–46 (1979)
ISIArticle
Jensen, B. J. L. et al. Transatlantic distribution of the Alaskan White
River Ash. Geology 42, 875–878 (2014)
Article
Oskarsson, N., Sigvaldason, G. E. & Steinthorsson, S. A dynamic-model of
rift-zone petrogenesis and the regional petrology of Iceland. J. Petrol.
23, 28–74 (1982)
CASArticle
Kuehn, S. C., Froese, D. G., Shane, P. A. R. & Participants, I. I. The
INTAV intercomparison of electron-beam microanalysis of glass by
tephrochronology laboratories: results and recommendations. Quat. Int. 246,
19–47 (2011)
Article
Kaufman, D. S. et al. Late Quaternary tephrostratigraphy, Ahklun mountains,
SW Alaska. J. Quat. Sci. 27, 344–359 (2012)
Article
Lakeman, T. R. et al. Holocene tephras in lake cores from northern British
Columbia, Canada. Can. J. Earth Sci. 45, 935–947 (2008)
Article
Bursik, M., Sieh, K. & Meltzner, A. Deposits of the most recent eruption in
the Southern Mono Craters, California: description, interpretation and
implications for regional marker tephras. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 275,
114–131 (2014)
CASArticle
Sampson, D. E. & Cameron, K. L. The geochemistry of the Inyo volcanic
chain—multiple magma systems in the Long Valley region, eastern California.
J. Geophys. Res. 92, 10403–10421 (1987)
Article
Veres, D. et al. The Antarctic ice core chronology (AICC2012): an optimized
multi-parameter and multi-site dating approach for the last 120 thousand
years. Clim. Past 9, 1733–1748 (2013)
ISIArticle
Siebert, L., Simkin, T. & Kimberly, P. Volcanoes of the World 3rd edn,
(University of California Press, 2010)
Download references

Author information
Abstract• References• Author information• Extended data figures and tables•
Supplementary information
Author footnotes
Present address: Laboratory of Radiochemistry and Environmental Chemistry,
Paul Scherrer Institut, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland
M. Sigl
Affiliations
Desert Research Institute, Nevada System of Higher Education, Reno, Nevada
89512, USA
M. Sigl, J. R. McConnell, N. Chellman, O. J. Maselli & D. R. Pasteris
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle,
Washington 98195, USA
M. Winstrup
Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, California
94720, USA
K. C. Welten
School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology, Queen's University
Belfast, Belfast BT7 1NN, UK
G. Plunkett & J. R. Pilcher
Yale Climate and Energy Institute, and Department of History, Yale
University, New Haven, Connecticut 06511, USA
F. Ludlow
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
U. Büntgen
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern,
Switzerland
U. Büntgen, H. Fischer & S. Schüpbach
Global Change Research Centre AS CR, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic
U. Büntgen
Department of Physics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907, USA
M. Caffee & T. E. Woodruff
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue
University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907, USA
M. Caffee
Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen,
2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
D. Dahl-Jensen, J. P. Steffensen & B. M. Vinther
Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, 3012 Bern,
Switzerland
H. Fischer & S. Schüpbach
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung,
27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
S. Kipfstuhl
Department of History, The University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK
C. Kostick
Department of Geology, Quaternary Sciences, Lund University, 22362 Lund,
Sweden
F. Mekhaldi & R. Muscheler
British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge
CB3 0ET, UK
R. Mulvaney
The Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson,
Arizona 85721, USA
M. Salzer
Contributions
M. Sigl designed the study with input from J.R.M., M.W., G.P., and F.L. The
manuscript was written by M. Sigl, M.W., F.L., and J.R.M., with
contributions from K.C.W., G.P., U.B., and B.M.V. in interpretation of the
measurements. Ice-core chemistry measurements were performed by J.R.M., M.
Sigl, O.J.M., N.C., D.R.P. (NEEM, B40, TUNU2013), and by S.S., H.F., R.
Mulvaney (NEEM). K.C.W., T.E.W., and M.C. completed ice core 10Be
measurements. F.M. and R. Muscheler were responsible for the NGRIP ice core
10Be measurements. M. Sigl, M.W., B.M.V., and J.R.M. analysed ice-core data
and developed age models. F.L. and C.K. analysed historical documentary
data. G.P. and J.R.P. performed ice-core tephra analysis and data
interpretation. U.B. and M. Salzer contributed tree-ring data. D.D.-J.,
B.M.V., J.P.S., S.K., and O.J.M. were involved in drilling of the NEEM ice
core. TUNU2013 was drilled by M. Sigl, N.C. and O.J.M., and the B40 ice
core was drilled by S.K. and made available for chemistry measurements.
D.D.-J. and J.P.S. were responsible for NEEM project management, sample
distribution, logistics support, and management. All authors contributed
towards improving the final manuscript.

Competing financial interests
The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Corresponding author
Correspondence to: J. R. McConnell
Extended data figures and tables
Abstract• References• Author information• Extended data figures and tables•
Supplementary information
Extended Data Figures
Extended Data Figure 1: Location of study sites. (414 KB)
a, Map showing locations (blue circles) of the five ice cores (WDC, B40,
NEEM, NGRIP and TUNU) used in this study. Sites of temperature-limited
tree-ring chronologies (green)42, 43, 76, 77, 78 and sites with annual Δ14C
measurements from tree-rings in the eighth century CE (red outline) are
marked. b, Metadata for the ice cores, tree-ring width (RW), maximum
latewood density (MXD) chronologies and temperature reconstructions used3,
12, 16, 17, 25, 35, 42, 43, 76, 77, 78, 82. m water equ. a−1, metres of
water equivalent per year.

Extended Data Figure 2: Volcanic dust veils from historical documentary
sources in relation to NEEM. (127 KB)
Time series of 32 independently selected chronological validation points
from well dated historical observations of atmospheric phenomena with known
association to explosive volcanism (for example, diminished sunlight,
discoloured solar disk, solar corona or Bishop's Ring, red volcanic sunset)
as reported in the Near East, Mediterranean region, and China, before our
earliest chronological age marker at 536 CE. Black lines represent the
magnitude (scale on y axes) of annual sulfate deposition measured in NEEM
(NEEM and NEEM-2011-S1 ice cores) from explosive volcanic events on the new
NS1-2011 timescale. Red crosses depict the 24 (75%) historical validation
points for which NEEM volcanic events occur within a conservative ±3-year
uncertainty margin. Blue crosses represent the eight points for which
volcanic events are not observed. The association between validation points
and volcanic events is statistically significantly non-random at>99.9%
confidence (P < 0.001). ppb, parts per billion.

Extended Data Figure 3: Timescale comparison. (412 KB)
Age differences of the timescales NS1-2011 and GICC05 for the
NEEM-2011-S1/NEEM ice cores (a) and WD2014 and WDC06A-7 for WDC (b).
Differences before 86 CE (the age of the ice that is now at the bottom of
the ice core NEEM-2011-S1) deriving from the annual-layer counting of the
NEEM core are shown for major volcanic eruptions relative to the respective
signals in NGRIP on the annual-layer counted GICC05 timescale. Marker
events used for constraining the annual-layer dating (solid line) and for
chronology evaluation (dashed lines) are indicated. Triangles mark volcanic
signals. Also indicated is the difference between WD2014 and the Antarctic
ice-core chronology (AICC2012)92, based on volcanic synchronization between
the WDC and EDC96 ice cores.

Extended Data Figure 4: Post-volcanic suppression of tree growth. (329 KB)
Superposed epoch analysis for large volcanic eruptions using the 28 largest
volcanic eruptions (a); the 23 largest tropical eruptions (b); the five
largest Northern Hemisphere eruptions (c); and eruptions larger than
Tambora 1815 with respect to sulfate aerosol loading (d). Shown are growth
anomalies of a multi-centennial tree-ring composite record (N-Tree) 15
years after the year of volcanic sulfate deposition, relative to the
average of five years before the events. Dashed lines indicate 95%
confidence intervals (2 s.e.m.) of the tree-ring growth anomalies
associated with the multiple eruptions.

Extended Data Figure 5: Major-element composition for ice core tephra
QUB-1859 and reference material. (172 KB)
Shown are selected geochemistry data: SiO2 versus total alkali (K2O + Na2O)
(a); FeO (total iron oxides) versus TiO2 (b); SiO2 versus Al2O3 (c); and
CaO versus MgO (d) from 11 shards extracted from the NEEM-2011-S1 ice core
at 327.17–327.25 m depth, representing the age range 536.0–536.4 CE on the
new, NS1-2011 timescale. Data for Late Holocene tephra from Mono Craters
(California) are from the compilation by ref. 90; data for Aniakchak
(Alaska) are from reference material published by ref. 88; and data for the
early Holocene upper Finlay tephra, believed to be from the Edziza complex
in the Upper Cordilleran Volcanic province (British Columbia), are from
ref. 89. (See Supplementary Information for the Upper Finlay tephra.)

Extended Data Tables
Extended Data Table 1: Ice-core dating (169 KB)
Extended Data Table 2: Annual-layer results using the StratiCounter program
(157 KB)
Extended Data Table 3: Historical documentary evidence for key volcanic
eruption age markers 536-939 CE (144 KB)
Extended Data Table 4: Large volcanic eruptions during the past 2,500 years
(173 KB)
Extended Data Table 5: Post-volcanic cooling (211 KB)

PDF files
Supplementary Information (80 KB)
This file contains a Supplementary File guide

Supplementary Data 2 (1.3 MB)
This file contains 3 Supplementary data tables – see guide for details.

Excel files
Supplementary Data 1 (21 KB)
This file contains ice core meta data and 10Be results – see guide for
details.

Supplementary Data 3 (8.7 MB)
This file contains data from Greenland ice cores– see guide for details.

Supplementary Data 4 (6.6 MB)
This file contains data from Antarctica ice cores– see guide for details.

Supplementary Data 5 (46 KB)
This file contains volcanic reconstruction data– see guide for details.

-- 
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"geoengineering" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to [email protected].
To post to this group, send email to [email protected].
Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.

Reply via email to